Any guesses what will happen and when?
I expect that denying the Iraqis communications and anti- aircraft capabilities will be first priority, combined with long range insertions of special forces and airborne troops to secure vital air and land infrastructure.
Armour can only travel as fast as the logistics train so the push from the south (possiblly from the north via Turkey and the west via Jordan also?) will concentrate on commmunications points up the Tigris/Euphrades river valley. It could be as long as two weeks before land forces of size reach the Baghdad area.
I expect that the invasion will bypass Baghdad initially. If Saddam does not surrender immediately, a siege will be placed on the capitol city. Iraqi conscripts in the field will not be very motivated to fight, but Iraqis pushed back to their home towns will be willing to defend family and property.
Iraqi reaction may be to use some sort of chem/bio weapons along invasion routes, but even they know that would only be a delaying tactic.
Possibility that Iraqia may get some missles into Israel. If NBC weapons used against Israel, look for a nuclear Israeli reaction.
Scott
By: Tempest - 18th March 2003 at 22:36
The weak point of any dictatorship is its leader. Remove the leader and the system starts to crumble.
I’ve heard reports that US has been actively approaching members of his inner circle, through email in many instances offering cash etc. There’s no way a hierachy like Saddams can be 100% cohesive. There’s bound to be a good many opportunities, especially now that the writing is on the wall.
If they can activate a 5th column inside the citadel of power, it would be a massive advantage.
In fact a 5th column is my bet for one of the real key suprises of this war.
By: frankvw - 18th March 2003 at 22:31
About missiles on Israel, this seems unlikely, as their most ranged missiles seem to be of +/- 170km, which in not sufficient…
Else, yes, a big bombing campaign is to expect, maybe opened by some B-2s which, thanks to GPS ammo, can hit several targets in one pass. Ideal for a city.
My bet would go for an attack on Thursday night, it would make sence as Friday is a day off in Muslim countries. So, less personal is to expect into governmental agencies, and thus, less civilians killed in case of an attack.
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March 18, 2003 at 10:22 pm