April 28, 2005 at 11:18 am
During the last couple of weeks Hugo Chavez of Venezuela has bolstered his already robust anti-US course.
Cancelling of military cooperation (although the got more than 100 million USD yearly until 1999 – that is down to zero now);
starting cooperations with Cuba and Iran (mostly oil related, but not limited to);
and more fatal, is rumored to be about to enter an exclusive oil delivery treaty with China centered on the Bolivar Coastal oil field, which is the third largest known oil field in the world.
Venezuela is the fourth largest supplier (declining, was the largest single supplier in per-Chavez times) of oil to the U.S. with a current share of 9% or so.
There are also plans for a “land reform” aimed at large chunks of foreign-owned latifundias and plantations (about 80% of Venezulanian land is in the hands of 5% of land owners, a good deal of US companies).
And now there are rumors that the U.S. could invade Venezuela, appealing to article 21 of the OAS treaty, with or without help from neighbouring Colombia.
These days Rice is on a tour of South America (to rally support against Venezuela? The U.S. has lost a lot of ground in the whole of South America because of (mostly) Clinton era drug-related legislation that prohibited cooperation);
rumors about Citgo’s (which is the fourth largest gasoline stations chain and 100% owned by Venezuela’s national PDVSA oil company) financial troubles and corruption are spread in U.S. newspapers;
more Colombian troops than usual are captured while (on reconnaissance missions?) on Venezulanian soil;
in general the anti-Venezuela propaganda in the U.S. has steeply risen, along with talk of the Western Hemisphere axis of evil Cuba-Venezuela and pro-Chavez groups in the U.S. depicted as a kind of clandestine underground terror network.
So, let’s assess the options of an U.S. intervention to get rid of Chávez:
# Option A — another coup d’état:
This time with the help from U.S. special forces, CIA, and a few air assets. Entering from Colombia and USMC amphibious ships (seven are currently deployed in the Carribean), by helicopter and C-130. Two Commando Solo, two Compass Call, three or four MQ-1, plus four to eight F-117 overhead supported by two KC-135 circling over the Caribbean (just in case). No resistance from the Venezulaian armed forces, no mentioning of U.S. involvement. Could work. The subsequent public unrest in the Caracas wouldn’t last too long. Most propable option in case. Can be executed in rather short notice.
# Option B — have some other country (e.g. Colombia) do the dirty work of a ground invasion, U.S. helps with special forces and from the air:
Not very likely.
# Option C — full blown U.S. invasion (perhaps with some alibi-units from OAS member states):
The *other* option. Quite a drastic measure, lots of international outcry. Would result in guerilla warfare for month to come, destabilization of the whole area. Forces needed: A full Army division (e.g. 82nd Airborne), a full Air Force strike wing, support by USMC amphibious assets plus one carrier.
Too much effort, too much disturbance, not very likely.