March 20, 2004 at 12:28 am
We came, we saw, we kicked ass. But now what?
Iraq is basically three countries formally held together by a despotic dictator. In the north, Kurds. In the middle, Sunni’s. And in the south, Shiites. And no, these people do not hold hands and sing “Kumbya” around the campfire together. The ethnic rivalries in Iraq make Northern Ireland and the Balkans look like a mild disagreement and a polite debating society.
Iraq is not like Germany or Japan after WWII. Those countries are generally ethnically monolithic (that means everybody in Japan and Germany were pretty much the same ethnicity, speak the same language, etc.) and at the end of WWII they were scared ****-less by the Communist threat from the USSR. Japan and Germany may not have been happy to lose to the Americans (and our allies) but they sure did not want the Commies to take them over even worse. Germany and Japan were happier to cooperate with the US as long as the USSR existed as a worst-case scenario.
Iraq is a very different situation. There are three major and very different points of view on EVERY topic in Iraq right now. The Kurds are OK with us, the Shiites got burned by us back in ’91 and the Sunnis are ****ed because their boy Saddam is out of office.
Lets examine the options available to get the US and her allies out of Iraq-
1) Just Bug Out and let the Iraqi figure it out for them selves. Naw, that won’t work.
2) Figure a way for the UN to take over so we can Bug Out. The UN does not want to let Bush off the hook that easy. Maybe if John Kerry promises to apologize and offers up Bush for trial as a War Criminal.
3) Create a Police State with an Absolute Dictator to keep these poor, unfortunate people from engaging in the blood feuds that they traditionally practiced upon each other. This option sort of blows the stated purpose of bringing “democracy” to a people who have no tradition of representative government.
I am out of ideas, what do you guys think?
Scott
BTW- Mad props top all the men and women who sacrificed in service to our countries. Whether the Boss was right or wrong, you guys answered the call and made us all proud.
By: Jonesy - 22nd March 2004 at 11:59
so the idea that the RN could help lift out the troops is almost laughable – what does Spit propose they do, sleep on the deck and tow life rafts behind? Like every other service the navy has been ‘boosted’ with political economies – if we had to retake the Falklands now approximately half the fleet would have to be cannibalised to keep the other half serviceable, the gates to navy establishments would have to be locked because of a lack of personnel to guard them, and the admirals would have to go peaked cap in hand to the Americans for certain munitions which were not replaced after Desert Storm… Throw the army and air force into the equation too – then ask how the troops would be transported down there (nearly every liner in the British merchant fleet is now American); there would be trouble at every turn.
Flood,
Excuse me while I defend the RN’s reputation here but I have to make the point that what you’ve written is inaccurate on so many levels as to defy belief!
The RN has an organic sealift capacity second only to the USN, afaik, that can be further boosted by the STUFT (Ships Taken Up From Trade) protocols that have been proven to be workable and effective many times in the last 25 years. Currently the RN enjoys the use, through a PFI, of the 6 brand-new EDDYSTONE Class Ro-Ro ships which, probably, have the capacity to lift out the entire UK contingent’s ‘heavy equipment’ in one go. People usually go out by air, but, a STUFT call up of three or four Stena Ro-Ro Ferries in addition to our amphib capability would, IMO, have little trouble evacuating all our people within a period of hours if such a need arose.
Short-notice retasking of half a dozen escorts, an SSN, and the duty carrier to provide cover for this sort of convoy is also something RN planning allows for and is something all operational vessels are prepared for as routine. The RN may not be the USN but I’d be interested to learn who you think, in that theatre, could get through a defensive screen of T42’s, T23’s and SK.AEW.7 backed SHAR’s to disrupt the withdrawal!. The Royal Fleet Auxilliary is also well equipped to support such a zero-notice deployment and practises for it regularly.
Perhaps a spot of reading is in order before firing up the whining circuits next time?
By: sharmaji - 22nd March 2004 at 06:32
Sauron
then by all means, let the US stop giving contracts to American companies and let other countries who have a comparative advantage win those contracts. me thinks that the Chinese for example would offer a cheaper price to rebuild all those power plants, rebuild all those pipes etc…
The Chinese have done the same in Iran!
India too was very active in business deals in Iraq pre war and had many contracts.
By: Sauron - 22nd March 2004 at 06:15
Mixtic
The U.S. is hardly opposed to “foreign” companies investing in Iraq. If you stop and actually think about it, that is exactly what it hopes will happen.
Sauron
By: Sauron - 22nd March 2004 at 05:44
Plawolf
I did two searchs of the web using “UN Iraq oil-for-food program” and “UN oil-for -food kickbacks” and got more data than I could ever absorb. I started with the following:
www.fpc.state.gov/documents/organization/14390.pclf
In any event there is plenty to research if you are inclined regardless of what ones views are about Iraq. Personally I believe it was a typical ill managed UN deal. You will form your own opinion but it’s worth a look regardless.
Regards
Sauron
By: plawolf - 21st March 2004 at 17:33
“Yes Plawolf, the UN collected a commission of more than $1 billion US on Saddams oil sales during the Oil-for-Food program. Skimming at the UN end and kickbacks and bribes at the other. “
have u got a link?
By: mixtec - 21st March 2004 at 16:20
If the US would allow foriegn bussinesses to go in and do rebuild the country, the Iraqi economy would quickly take off and there would be much less content from all the jobless Iraqis. It would also give a democratic Iraqi goverment plenty of work to manage the influx of all this bussiness. The US is simply trying to corner the market and monopolize on rebuilding Iraq and is simply holding down Iraq from developing properly to create the impression that its a chaotic country that needs the US. I think enough people in the US are tired of Bushes arrogant bluster, and watching US soldiers die that he will vote for Kerry simply for the sake of seeing Iraq handled responcibly. I garantee all the violence in Iraq will stop when Iraqi oil wealth is allowed to be used to rebuild the country uninhibited. And those “anti-democratic terrorist forces” that Bush is forever trying to stamp out will suddenly disappear.
By: Sauron - 21st March 2004 at 15:44
Yes Plawolf, the UN collected a commission of more than $1 billion US on Saddams oil sales during the Oil-for-Food program. Skimming at the UN end and kickbacks and bribes at the other.
Sauron
By: SOC - 21st March 2004 at 12:31
Originally posted by Multirole
US should declare King Abdullah II King of Jordan AND Iraq.
In exchange Jordan can set aside some land for the Palestinians.
That was done already in 1947 (setting aside Palestinian lands). I wouldn’t want to see them sink to Israeli levels by taking land someone else is already occupying and deciding it is their own.
By: Multirole - 21st March 2004 at 11:37
US should declare King Abdullah II King of Jordan AND Iraq.
In exchange Jordan can set aside some land for the Palestinians.
By: plawolf - 21st March 2004 at 11:19
“We all know that the U.N. was responsible for skimming Iraqs oil wealth during the oil for food deal so it would be stupid to trust it with critical tasks. “
oh really? did u find that out by tapping anan’s phone or did saddam tell u that in captivity?:rolleyes:
By: Sauron - 21st March 2004 at 00:09
Arthur
Well you make a fair list starting from where your feet are standing.
Sauron
By: Arthur - 20th March 2004 at 23:31
Like the way the US saved South Vietnam from communism, or how it kept South Korea a democracy (since 1989)?
I think Haiti is doing pretty well ever since the US occupation from 1915 to 1957 too.
By: Sauron - 20th March 2004 at 23:28
Well lets hope the U.N. role is minimal whatever deals are done.
We all know that the U.N. was responsible for skimming Iraqs oil wealth during the oil for food deal so it would be stupid to trust it with critical tasks.
It would be a shame to add Iraq to the long list of U.N. failures whereas the US and its close allies at least have a good record in that regard.
Sauron
By: Flood - 20th March 2004 at 21:03
You forgot that America has also got a vested interest in protecting its big business deals to rebuild Iraq – other UN members wouldn’t back a peace force unless the money got shared out equally. There is no chance of that – it is not even being shared out with nations who also went to war – so America is there to the bitter end.
Also the idea that the RN could help lift out the troops is almost laughable – what does Spit propose they do, sleep on the deck and tow life rafts behind? Like every other service the navy has been ‘boosted’ with political economies – if we had to retake the Falklands now approximately half the fleet would have to be cannibalised to keep the other half serviceable, the gates to navy establishments would have to be locked because of a lack of personnel to guard them, and the admirals would have to go peaked cap in hand to the Americans for certain munitions which were not replaced after Desert Storm… Throw the army and air force into the equation too – then ask how the troops would be transported down there (nearly every liner in the British merchant fleet is now American); there would be trouble at every turn.
Glad I voted for the Bring A Bottle Party…;)
Flood.
By: plawolf - 20th March 2004 at 18:28
currently the iraqis want the occupation to end, but they also dont want the chaos that would follow if the occupiying forces left too abruptly.
the biggest problem at present is that the ppl the iraqis need are also the same ppl that many of them hate and would like gone, and the heavy handed US military isnt making things any better.
the current plan of training and arming iraqis to maintain security has worked to some extent, however it might take too long to complete. even if the plan works, most of the armed iraqis would come from the shiite side, and they been opressed by saddam and the sunnis for decades, so there is the potentical of a kosova style event happening if things are left to run its course.
the best solution would be to have a huge UN peacekeeping force to completely replace all american military personnel and to keep the peace until iraq can get back on its feet. with time and wealth, hopefully the hatred between iraq’s different minorities can have a chance to be forgotten if not forgiven.
however, two major political obsticals stand in the way.
1) there are only a handful of nations that have the manpower and resources to take over from the US in iraq, and none of them were too keen on going into iraq in the first place. so it would be doubtful that they would be willing to make themselves look weak internationally and face major domestically pressure as casaulties ineveitably result from this move.
2) the americans didnt go into iraq for fun, and i doubt that the US would pull all its troops out of iraq even if someone else offered to send troops to take their place.
however, as long as US troops remain, any UN force would be seen only as the US’s ‘henchmen’ and not as policemen. this means that attacks against the UN force would likely be as frequant and deadly as attacks are currently against US troops. this would make it more unlikely that anyone would be willing to send troops in in the first place.
also, as long as US troops remain in iraq, they would be seen as tempting targets for anyone with a gun and a dislike for americans in the region (which is alot of ppl), and many of them will continue to flood into iraq and cause all sorts of problems. and that’s on top of the well orginised and financed terrirost orgs like Al-Q.
By: SPIT - 20th March 2004 at 14:03
A few RN ships would get them all out ASAP, but dont tell TONY or he will cry??:rolleyes: :rolleyes: and find another excuse for them to stay??
By: Nermal - 20th March 2004 at 09:34
Britain wasn’t prepared for war, America wasn’t prepared for peace – what makes you think either will be prepared to leave? – Nermal
By: duxfordhawk - 20th March 2004 at 09:09
I honestly think we could be there for years and just like the war on Terror this will run and run with more lives lost as it goes on,Its a sign of the modern world.
By: steve rowell - 20th March 2004 at 03:33
Fall in behind the spanish and march out with them
By: SOC - 20th March 2004 at 00:34
The ethnic rivalries in Iraq make Northern Ireland and the Balkans look like a mild disagreement and a polite debating society.
Funniest. Analogy. Ever. 😀 Major props to your verbal skills!
There’s always option #4-the Iraqi’s take over on June 30th and decide to kick us out. That would leave us in a very interesting position indeed…