I was just wondering about all the fuss which kicked up after 9/11 about a conflict with North Korea and was just wondering is the North REALLY a threat. At the risk of answering my own question the North has:
Army: large in no. but mainly comprising old MBT’s, AFV’s and artillery of fifties and sixties vintage of which about only 30% are estimated to be fully operational.
Navy: Again mainly fifties and sixties designs with no real threat to madern warships and again very few are considered operational.
Air Force: Slightly more modern but basic designs with primitive avionics and weapons (no LGB for example). Also very few pilot hours and few airworthy aircraft. Obsolete doctrine.
Air Defence: SA-2’s and SA-3’s.
Are we to believe that this museum is going to pose a threat to South Korea?
The one and only threat is the Norths IRBM’s of which the hasty development seems to be an admittance by Pyongyang that the North has no credible conventional force.
Am I missing something here???
By: plawolf - 11th November 2003 at 18:34
cbstd:
“China invaded Japan centuries ago through Korea,”
and in which paralle universe did this happen in?:rolleyes:
By: cbstd - 10th November 2003 at 23:38
NK is not really an offensive threat, they do not have the reserves or economic resources to sustain warfare for enough time to overwhelm SK.
NK’s nuclear program is partially self-defensive, partially a “protection racket” designed to intimidate Japan and South Korea into provide more charity to keep the creaky wheels (barely) turning in NK.
The Korean Pennisula is the historical route into and out of the Asian mainland. China invaded Japan centuries ago through Korea, and Japan returned the favor in the 1930’s. NK serves as a “stopper” to keep the Western Forces out of China/USSR and SK serves the same purpose to keep China/USSR out of Japan.
Realistically, NK is not in any position to project power beyond their own border. If they can rattle a nuclear saber loud enough, maybe they can squeeze some more cash out of her neighbors.
Scott
By: plawolf - 10th November 2003 at 21:14
alex.
a one hundred year old connon shell is still going kill u if it hits u (that is provided it was fired out of a connon first :D). the biggest threat posed by NK is its close proximity to SK and US troop based there.
NK’s artiliry might not be state-of-the-art, but serveral thousand old gun firing at the same time into ur capital is still not sth anyone would be looking forward to too much.
another aspect would be the terrain. alot of mountains and caves (natural or man made) will give US air power alot of restrictions and would force the US to go in on the ground against a army that isnt already destroyed for once.
however, notice how all of the above one comes into play in DEFENCE. the best mountain strongehold is not going to be any help if ur charging out of it. at this point, and in the foreseeable future, the US is far greater threat to NK then NK will ever be to the US. thats the idea behind the BMs and nukes, they are weapons intended to be used in a defensive manner as a means of deterrance.
however, given the mental state that kim is in, he’ll probably use his nuke for more then just deterance once he gets them, ie,’ give me XXX of i nuke u’, thats why no one and i mean NO ONE wants to see then have nukes.
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Nermal:
“North Korea is for the chop, in the same way Iraq was, whether they do anything or not. The only difference is whether or not Bush can link them in with bin Laden or if Saddam might be hidden there. “
is that why the US is jumping with joy at the prospects of going in to ‘liberate’ NK and is saying to china, ‘ thanks with all ur help in the negocialtions and all, but u dont need to bother anymore.’ :rolleyes:
“Instead I expect that the US will limit food supplies (grain? can’t remember) unless the North Koreans stop their missile programs or whatever and starve the rest of the population.”
lol, like the US has much leaverage there. its china that holds NK’s lifelines. what, u think the US enjoys running to china for help?:rolleyes:
By: Nermal - 10th November 2003 at 17:07
You don’t think that they will unleash a hoard of staving people into the world – sort of like a zombie movie then?
North Korea is for the chop, in the same way Iraq was, whether they do anything or not. The only difference is whether or not Bush can link them in with bin Laden or if Saddam might be hidden there. Instead I expect that the US will limit food supplies (grain? can’t remember) unless the North Koreans stop their missile programs or whatever and starve the rest of the population. – Nermal
By: Hand87_5 - 10th November 2003 at 14:59
Yes you’re missing something.
They have long distance missiles able to launch nukes.
Maybe this thread is not real right now, but it might be soon.
In an other hand , you’re right this museum is not a real thread.
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November 10, 2003 at 2:54 pm