Is the recession over?

BM,

Its a tricky one. There is no doubt that the national debt continues to grow at a colossal rate, which has slowed somewhat, but is still a long way from being under control. There is an argument to say that actually it doesn’t matter. As long as the economy can continue to perform, the size of that debt is irrelevant. The Tory view is always the opposite; that we should seek to eliminate the structural deficit, and then reduce the debt pile long term.

I have to say, I never had it so good as when Blair and his merry men were in power. They threw money at us, and lots of us felt it would never end. Labour argue that the global recession was not their fault, and there was little they could do about its effects. But that isn’t true either. A better understanding of the global market, and a veto on making a carpet salesman into a banker would have helped a lot. It’s history now.

The Tories tell us that the money must come from somewhere.

The socialists tell us it doesn’t need to.

I am naturally drawn towards the former, as I can’t spend what I don’t have. I have yet to see an argument that convinces me otherwise.

Sorry, a response to your post not being your usual measured argument! 🙂

Instead they conflated this with public spending policies – and without having the first clue as to how this actually made sense (it didn’t) the media mostly nodded along.

…the party line is to point to a different one that’s all the Government-before-last’s fault and which – at great sacrifice and under Churchillian leadership – we are just beginning to turn around. Now, that is your actual crap.

Do you at least acknowledge that a country should, over the medium term, live within its means?

And that there is a relationship between government spending above and beyond this limit, national debt and the cost of continued borrowing by the nation?

Not your usual measured response. The Conservatives were careful not to trumpet those figures, because they correlated to a global recession and nothing that could be pinned on the opposition (lending weight to the argument that these things happen regardless). Instead they conflated this with public spending policies – and without having the first clue as to how this actually made sense (it didn’t) the media mostly nodded along.

I accept there was an actual global recession that ended a long time ago, but as we who aren’t rolling in it don’t feel much better about things and haven’t since 09 the party line is to point to a different one that’s all the Government-before-last’s fault and which – at great sacrifice and under Churchillian leadership- we are just beginning to turn around. Now, that is your actual crap.

The ‘recession’ we were supposed to have gone through and now recovered from was defined by the Conservative party initially by looking only at funds available for public spending (that allegorical ‘there’s nothing left’ note) and no other measure. This was then sold to us via the tory press to justify ideologically motivated spending cuts…

Crap.

The recession, and it was a global recession, lasted in the United Kingdom from 2008 Q2 (-0.2%), through Q3 (-1.7%), Q4 (-2.2%), 2009 Q1 (-1.8%) and ended after 2009 Q2 (-0.3%)…

…so all before the Coalition government and so before the ‘there is no money left’ note!

The truth is that both parties (all parties), while in power or opposition, have ‘spun’ the state of the economy to suit their own political agenda…

…but ‘the recession’ was certainly not a Conservative invention.

There’s a school of thought that the economy will just do its own thing, and the colour of the political party in charge – and the machinations of its Chancellor – have very little effect. This school of thought thinks that things like levels of public spending are irrelevant – and it’s true that countries enter recessions, and booms, with the ‘public purse’ in the black as much as they do with it in the red.

At the heart of this contention is my earlier point that all ‘public’ money is recycled, not stashed or gambled* like ‘private’ money. Thus this kind of spending is only a force for stasis, not a ‘loss’ on any national balance sheet as neo-cons would have us believe.

The ‘recession’ we were supposed to have gone through and now recovered from was defined by the Conservative party initially by looking only at funds available for public spending (that allegorical ‘there’s nothing left’ note) and no other measure. This was then sold to us via the tory press to justify ideologically motivated spending cuts – and furthermore the cuts had no effect on the ‘ending’ of this ‘recession’. The bit that they have kept quiet is public finances are actually no better than they were at the beginning. As employment is slightly up they point to that instead, though no-one can explain how that’s connected to their policies (and it’s stopped going up now).

Meanwhile the ‘economy’ goes its own sweet way, sometimes for the better, sometimes for the worse.

*and no, John, that’s not ‘wealth creation’. Gambling wouldn’t work if you could just invent more money as you went along. You can pretend to, but it does go wrong when debts are called in…

Which one? ;o)

Sorry for the misunderstanding Snaf – it’s of little matter.

Indeed – and perhaps more internal opposition in the two main parties than we have seen for a while. Where are the Liberals, by the way…..?

And is that your only measure of the state of the economy?

What about internet-shopping; how much of that is going on compared to 2008? Wouldn’t there be fewer shops on the high-street because of the internet even if there hadn’t been a recession?

Here is another figure to judge the state of the economy: new car sales in March were the best since 1999…

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-35976094

…I guess nobody can afford to go to the shops because they’ve spent their few remaining pennies on a new car!

Spot on – the internet has killed many small shops dead – or perhaps relocated them online. Defining the economy in simple terms is getting ever harder. Even with the paucity of smaller traders in towns and cities, the rents continue to rise faster than the traders can keep pace. I know of a few shops in Norwich which are suffering from this. Wont be long before all high street shops are homogenous, one size fits all national brands sadly.

The ‘you’ was not you specifically. Sorry that you took the you to be you…

And I was just enlightening others, if not yourself, that there is more to opposition than the ‘official’ version.

Snafu – firstly please don’t presume to know how I vote. At the moment I don’t!! And secondly of course there is lots of “opposition” to the government but I was responding to CD’s specific comment in which it was clearly implicit he was referring to Her Majesty’s Opposition which, in case you hadn’t noticed, is the Labour Party. Hence my rhetorical question.

I’m noticing a lot of shops here in the South West either closing, closed or depressingly short of stock…

And is that your only measure of the state of the economy?

What about internet-shopping; how much of that is going on compared to 2008? Wouldn’t there be fewer shops on the high-street because of the internet even if there hadn’t been a recession?

Here is another figure to judge the state of the economy: new car sales in March were the best since 1999…

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-35976094

…I guess nobody can afford to go to the shops because they’ve spent their few remaining pennies on a new car!

What opposition?

Despite what you may think, there is opposition to the government out there. There are numerous other political parties/groups/mindsets other than Labour, and despite the general line of thought on this forum there is a section of society who will never vote the way you will, a section who would rather vote for a freshly slaughtered pig in a tutu wearing rollerskates than a Tory – just as there is a section who would never consider voting for any party to the left of Boris Johnson.

Yes, I knew your question was rhetorical, but even an ineffective opposition can be pretty effective in making the electorate believe the government is doing a bad job. Essentially being ‘in opposition’ is the easiest job in the world; everybody believes their particular life is a struggle and it is very easy to believe somebody who puts all the blame on the government and claims everything will be better if only enough of us took the simple step…

…of voting for them instead!

Well that’s all true but since you used the terms government and opposition in the same context the inference was inevitably the political opposition to the government in parliament.

My question was rhetorical in any case because there are few who believe the official opposition is performing its required function.

Well, the ‘opposition’ to any decision that the government has made really; not just ‘the opposition’ in the traditional sense.

‘Brexit’ is opposition just as much as the traditional opposition is, more spending on the NHS is opposition, or more spending on Defence, or more support for the Steel Industry, or more ‘affordable housing’ is opposition…

…but ‘lower taxes’ is opposition too, and so is ‘more benefits’ or ‘less regulation’!

What opposition?

I think all colours of the political spectrum agree that ‘economic activity’ is better than pre-2008 levels and that there have not been two quarters with negative growth (the official definition of ‘recession’) for several years…

…so, yes, the ‘recession’ is over.

However, I agree, the argument isn’t really about whether the recession ‘over’, it is about the electorate’s perception of whether the government is doing a good job or whether the opposition would do a better job!

Which side of the political spectrum are you again?
It will either be the current chancellor has done wonders considering what the previous governments did…or he is digging us deeper from the fiscal level that Brown had gotten the country.

Take your pick.