MiG-29s for China

From Newsmax article

http://www.newsmax.com/archives/articles/2002/9/17/190138.shtml

The Thunder Is Nearing
Dr. Alexandr Nemets
Wednesday, Sept. 18, 2002

New Messages From the East Asian Media

On Sept. 4, the authoritative Nihon Keizai Shimbun (a Japanese economic newspaper) published the article “Russia Expands Weapons Export to China,” which was instantly reprinted, with comments and additions, by the Hong Kong, Taiwanese and U.S. Chinese-language media. Major theses of the article are as follow:

The export of Russian weapons to China has increased rapidly. In just this year (January-August) China and Russia signed a series of agreements to supply weapons for about $5 billion; this included SU-30 MK fighters, submarines, destroyers and air defense missile (ADM) systems. (Smaller agreements are not taken into account.) These weapons will all go to the PLA Navy (PLAN). All this, strangely enough, has taken place simultaneously with “Russian-U.S. rapprochement.”

Specifically:

1. In January 2002, a $1.4 billion contract to provide PLAN with two Sovremenny-class 956 EM missile destroyers was concluded.

2. In April, a $200 million contract to supply two S-300 F (RIF) ADM systems with a 200-km range for Chinese-made missile destroyers was signed. Installation of such systems could significantly expand the geographical area of PLAN activity and promote its transformation into a “blue water fleet.”

3. In May, a $1.6 billion contract to supply eight Kilo-class 636 diesel-electric submarines was signed. Submarines will be equipped with “super-advanced” Club (anti-ship) cruise missiles. Even India, an old ally and consumer of Soviet/Russian weapons, doesn’t get such missiles.

4. In May, the two sides reached agreement about providing 38 SU-3U MK attack fighters for PLAN. This first party of SU-series fighters to be used by PLAN will cost China $1.5 billion. These fighters will be equipped with advanced anti-ship Kh-31 missiles, with a 200-km range capable of engaging U.S. aircraft carriers (missiles are not included in the contract).

These four major contracts for PLAN upgrading total $4.7 billion.

In general, these new weapons (to be supplied by the end of 2005 at the latest) are aimed at establishing PLAN control not only in the Taiwan Strait (this task is almost accomplished already) but also over the East China and South China seas.

The list above doesn’t include new contracts to supply Russian kits and spare parts for weapons manufacturing in China, though such contracts are rapidly increasing, along with upgrading of Chinese defense industry technological potential.

By September 2002, China and Russia were close to an agreement regarding the supply of MiG-29 ME and MiG-29 D fighters for PLAN. After improvements are made to the tails and take-off/landing devices of these fighters (to be accomplished by either the Chinese, the Russians, or jointly), they will be eligible to be based on aircraft carriers.

PLA is incomparably stronger than the Taiwanese army in ground forces. By 2000, PLAN had 60 major surface vessels and 65 submarines, with a total deadweight of 905,000 tons, while the Taiwanese navy has 30 surface vessels and four submarines totaling 204,000 tons deadweight.

PLA has 3,600 fighters, including about 3,100 in the PLA Air Force (PLAAF) and 520 in PLAN, while Taiwan has 600 fighters (including about 200 modern ones of the F-16 and Mirage-2000 kind).

Until recently, Taiwanese forces surpassed PLA in weapons quality, and now this advantage is vanishing. Military pressure on Taiwan is becoming stronger. Particularly, by the end of 2004, PLA will have 200 or more advanced Russian-made SU-27 and SU-30 fighters capable of establishing control over the Taiwan Strait airspace. (end of article) Though the data about PLAN overall modernization is of great importance, Let’s consider in detail information regarding SU-series fighters.

Additional Facts From Japanese Newspapers

Japanese media are usually reluctant to recognize Chinese military preparations and the growing PLA threat. It was supposed in Japan, until recently, that Taiwan is capable of balancing PLA’s elite troops, especially if some U.S. forces are ‘in the picture.’ Now Japan is beginning to understand that the military situation in East Asia has dramatically changed and the consequences could be tragic for this country:

* The military balance in the Taiwan Strait is irreversibly broken.

* Most of the U.S. forces are tied up in the Middle East and their ability to intervene in the Far East is limited.

However, even now the Japanese underestimate the scale of the threat.

On Aug. 27, the leading Japanese newspaper Yomiuri Shimbun reported:

By 2004, when China receives from Russia 38 SU-30 MK fighters, ordered for PLAN several days ago and capable of carrying the most advanced 200-km-range Russian missiles, PLA will have 200 units or more of Russian-made SU-27 and SU-30 fighters. This doesn’t include the J-11/SU-27 SK under assembly at Shenyang Aircraft Plant, at the rate of 20 fighters a year.

In addition, by 2004, PLAAF will get the recently ordered 28 SU-30 MKK fighters, capable of carrying advanced Russian air-to-ground missiles. Ten fighters from this order arrived in China in mid-August. Both contracts were made after the visit of Russian Defense Minister Sergei Ivanov to China in the beginning of June 2002. The supply of 38 SU-30 MK and 28 SU-30 MKK fighters will increase the number of Russian-made SU-27 and SU-30 fighters in the PLA inventory to 192. (end of report)

Remarkably, the list of weapons purchases in Nihon Keizai, the Japanese paper cited at the beginning of this article, doesn’t include the 28 SU-30 MKK fighters for the PLAAF, which will cost China about $1 billion. Including this sale, the major Chinese weapons purchases in January-August 2002 increases to $5.7 billion.

Even more importantly, the total number of SU-series fighters given in the Japanese papers doesn’t correspond to reality.

Up to July 2000, China received, in five parts, approximately 120 SU-27 fighters, including older-model SU-27s, advanced SU-27 SKs and SU-27 UBK trainers. At least 55 of them went to PLAN aviation. The author is responsible for this information, obtained mostly from Taibei’s Zhonggong Yanjiu (China Communism Research) journal and based on data from Taiwanese intelligence. In addition, in August 2000-June 2002, China received:

* about 45 SU-30 fighters ? about 40 advanced SU-30 MKK and several units of an older model ? in accordance with an agreement signed in Beijing in December 1999;

* 28 SU-27 UBK trainers.

When the 66 newly ordered SU-30 MK and SU-30 MKK fighters are added, the total will be more than 255 Russian-made SU-series fighters ? NOT 192 or 200, as stated in the above reports from Yomiuri Shimbun and Nihon Keizai.

Even if we subtract about 10 SU-series fighters “consumed” in the training process, the resulting number of Russian-made SU-series fighters in the PLA inventory, by 2004, still exceeds 240.

Finally, How Many of Them?

According to the messages in the Hong Kong and Moscow media on July 30-31, Moscow and Beijing were going to sign ? or had signed already ? two contracts for:

* 40 SU-30 MK advanced fighters to China; these fighters are designated for PLAN aviation;

* 28 SU-30 MKK fighters for the PLAAF.

In total, China will receive 68 two-seat SU-30 fighters of two different varieties, with a combat radius of 1,900 miles and capable of carrying the most advanced air-to-air, anti-ship, anti-radar and general air-to-ground missiles. Delivery should be completed mostly by 2005. Each fighter will cost China approximately $35 million. China is ready to pay this money because PLA intends, in the case of conflict around Taiwan, to

* provide an effective blockade of Taiwan (establish domination in air space);

* challenge the U.S. Navy (and U.S. Air Force) if they come close to Taiwan.

The conclusion of these contracts became possible as a result of successfully accomplishing the previous contract for SU-30 MKK delivery, concluded at the end of 1999 and accomplished by the end of 2001. They were produced by the Komsomolsk-na-Amure (Khabarovsk region) Aircraft Plant. The new SU-30 MKKs will be produced at the same plant. (end of messages)

According to one more series of messages published on Aug. 19 by Hong Kong and U.S. Chinese-language papers, “in December 1999, China ordered from Russia the first group of SU-30 MKK fighters and received them already (by the end of 2001). The second group of 38 SU-30MKK fighters was ordered during the Jiang Zemin-Putin summit in Moscow in July 2001; PLA will start getting them in the second half 2002. The third group of at least 38 SU-30 MKK fighters, for $1.6 billion, to be delivered by 2004, was ordered just recently (in July-August 2004).”

So, how many SU-30 MKK and SU-30 MK fighters are ordered at this moment by the PLA from Russia? The author lost count.

In addition, the Shenyang Aircraft Plant produced, by mid-2002, about 60 J-11/SU-27 SK fighters; about 140 are still to be assembled with Russian assistance. By estimation, the rate of production approached 30 units annually while the share of Chinese components surpassed 60 percent, thus making J-11 comparatively inexpensive.

How many hundreds of SU-series fighters, both Chinese- and Russian-made, will the PLA have by 2005?

And how strong will the PLA Air Force and the PLA Navy be at that time?

Dr. Alexandr V. Nemets is co-author of “Chinese-Russian Military Relations, Fate of Taiwan and New Geopolitics.”

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Will give my own analysis later.