Most combat aircraft will be autonomous by 2025

It is my estimate that most combat aircraft will be unmanned by 2025. This means current and future UAV’s like the Predator, but also older legacy aircraft that were previously unmanned, such as the F-16, the F-18, the F-22, the F-35, the Eurofighter, the Rafale, the Su-30, the Mig-21…

The reason for this is that technology is about to see major breakthroughs in two fields that will make this possible:

– The first field is robotics. I’ve seen video’s of robotic hands and controllers being installed onto hobby planes, so the computer could “manually” fly them like a human would. This allows a computer to control any aircraft (or vehicle for that matter) that a human can (and more), by manipulating the controls the way a human would. This is important because it allows a computer to control aircraft without needing to introduce a digital control system, or to upgrade the existing digital control system to make it accessible to the controlling computer.

– The second fields is software and computing power, what most would call AI. Computers are getting powerful and smart enough to take over an increasing number of extremely complex tasks, most notably driving a car in busy traffic. USAF research has shown that software running on a low end computer will already beat human pilots in dogfights in most engagements. The UK has hinted that its latest UAVs are capable of extreme levels of autonomous mission execution, although the details remain secret.

These evolutions show that technology is quickly catching up to human pilots, and it is only logical that Air Forces around the world will quickly adapt to this technology, for a number of reasons:

– Cost: a human pilot is extremely expensive, needing to be paid a salary, health insurance, a pension, but most notable a large number of training flights to retain his skill. An AI would cost a fraction of that.

– Skill: a human pilot’s skill tends to fluctuate, and flatten out, as well as be lost when he gives up his job. USAF research has shown that software can already systematically beat human pilots in dogfights, even with an inferior aircraft. These superior skills will never be lost once gained, and will likely improve exponentially as the software is improved and the cost of computing power continues to decline. In addition the skill level can easily be copied to other computers, allowing for an almost limitless number of Ace pilots.

– Endurance: AI doesn’t get sleepy, tired, distracted, angry, scared, confused… It is 24/7 unblinking, can take G forces all day long and will not make stupid mistakes.

– Superhuman abilities: AI will be able to “see” in 360 degrees, with multiple sensors, as well as process data linked information. It will know the exact location and trajectory of every friendly and enemy aircraft, ground units, and launched missiles, and be able to compute all this information into a perfect battle plan. Which it will execute in perfect cooperation with its team mates as well as ground units thanks to their hive mind capabilities that will allow them to employ swarm tactics. And all this at almost instant speed, which will allow them to formulate and decide upon the most complex battle plans in moments.

– Expendability: at the end of the day fighter pilots are in an extremely dangerous position, and taking the human pilot out of the cockpit is one less body bag to be sent home.

All this combined suggests that in the next few years, companies will develop a sort of black box that will be able to fly pretty much any aircraft and execute any mission, cheaper and often better than a human could. And for obvious reasons Air Forces will adapt these systems, and those who fail to do so will pay a hefty price.