Navigational help please….

OK Kev, here’s the raw figures

A straight line from Woodhall to the crash site is some 240 statute miles.

In still air, cruising at 185 mph it would take some 1hr 19 minutes
In still air cruising at 220 mph it would take 1hr 06 minutes

But once we start to factor in a 40 mph wind

The 185 mph Lancaster takes 1hr 40 minutes struggling against a headwind or 1hr 05 minutes with a tailwind

The 220 mph Lancaster takes 1hr 21 minutes with the headwind or 56 minutes with the tailwind.

So the ‘spread’, remembering that winds stronger than 40 mph are encountered, is between 56 minutes and 1 hr 40 minutes.

With a full war load the aircraft would probably be at the slower end of the speed range until fuel burned off and the payload was disposed of.

How does that work for you?

Things that would help.

1) Any clue as to the routing of the bomber stream that night? If it had been a direct routing (unlikely) then the bulk of the times you have given me indicate an average speed of around 135 mph. This is very unlikely, the route must have been more circuitous.

2) Winds aloft would be too much to hope for

3) Time over target to tie into the other times you gave above. This would at least give some indication of the wind state.

Moggy

exmpa.

My apologies. You are of course correct and it might well be that I am considering the wrong claim here. I simply do not understand the location codes used by the Luftwaffe in the OKL claims lists. It appears, if I understand it correctly, that the code could be a geographical location, a map reference or a grid reference used by fighter controllers. At this time I am unable to tell one from another and that is seriously hampering me.

Regarding the body being discovered. I was confusing two dates and in fact the body was discovered almost three months later on the 9th of April.

Regarding the last known position of the aircraft, unfortunately, that was Woodhall Spa.

Thanks though for bursting my bubble as it were. Sometimes it is easy to get carried away and a healthy dose of reality can be very welcome.

Regards,

kev35

You are going to have difficulty arriving at any accurate figures without access to the briefing material for the night’s operations. However there are some reasonable assumptions you can make that might help:

a. Airspeed on return is likely to be at the higher end of the speed bracket whilst over enemy territory and if there are no fuel considerations it will be maintained after crossing the coast.

b. Calculate the still air time for a direct track from the last known position (LKP) to destination. Do this for each end of the speed range.

c. If you can get a synoptic chart or the reported winds on the night then apply the corrections to your figures obtained in b. above.

d. If you can’t get the information then work out the corrections for a 50kt headwind and 25kt tailwind. A headwind of ca. 30kt is the most likely case but you could check this from statistical data.

e. Now you have to assume that up to 35 mins might have to be added to all of the times obtained above to allow for inbound routeing and transit from the stream dispersal point to destination.

You will now have a table of times that cover a range of variables and you may be able to find the best fit by comparing them with the data available for other aircraft.

One assumption you have already made is a bit shaky:

Not sure where all this is going but could I be having to look at tidal patterns to see which claim is most likely to have led to a body being washed ashore at Ulrum seven weeks later?

How can you be sure when the body was washed ashore? You only know when it was found. It may have come ashore and been taken out to sea a number of times before it was finally discovered.

exmpa

Any times over target?

M

Hi, Rob.

97 Squadron ORB gives the following….

Weather – moonlight and good visibility, slight haze.

Here’s the up and down times for the other aircraft of the Squadron going to Berlin that night:

Up 1648 Down 0137
Up 1714 Down 0135
Up 1710 Down 0130
Up1716 Down 0230

That’s a rough average of the times. The Lancaster I am interested in took off at 1703.

I have a later claim of 23:28 which was reported 40 km North of Terschelling which may also be possible.

Not sure where all this is going but could I be having to look at tidal patterns to see which claim is most likely to have led to a body being washed ashore at Ulrum seven weeks later?

Hope this helps.

Regards,

kev35

The cruising airspeed of the Lancaster is given as anything between 185 and 220 mph (not ‘knots’ or we’ll all get confused)

Routeing would be unlikely to be direct as they would attempt to cross the coast at lightly defended points.

But worst of all there’s the weather.

A 40 mph wind could have the effect of widening that speed gap such that progress across the ground could be anywhere between 145 mph and 260 mph.

I’ll take a look at the likely distances involved tonight, but if anybody could dig up the aftercast for the met that night it would be a great help.

Moggy