New Rand REPORT dealign with 2013 senario

http://www.rand.org/pubs/monographs/2009/RAND_MG888.pdf

discuss. or is a future Rand senario not able to be discussed here?

Courtesy of slowman stratpage

Quoted From Page XVI of Summary

“To understand the consequences of these changes, we assessed a cross-strait battle for air superiority in the 2013 time
frame. Our analysis indicates that China?s ability to suppress or close the ROCAF?s bases could gives the PLA Air Force (PLAAF) an almost overwhelming numerical advantage that—coupled with the rough qualitative parity that now exists between the two sides—could allow China to attain air superiority over Taiwan and the strait.”

Quoted From Page 85

“Only the most recent generation of stealthy U.S. fighters—the F-22 and the still-tocome F-35—can expect to offer meaningful aircraft-on-aircraft technological advantages over what the PLAAF will bring to the fight.
This is radically different from the situation in 2000, and radically troubling.”

Quoted From Page 89

“However, our analysis on the whole suggests that a credible case can be made that the air war for Taiwan could essentially be over before much of the Blue air force has even fired a shot.”

Quoted From Page 131

“What this means is that the United States and Taiwan can no longer be confident of winning the battle for the air in the air. This represents a dramatic change from the first five-plus decades of the China-Taiwan confrontation. Limiting the amount of air-delivered punishment inflicted on Taiwan demands new concepts and capabilities to hold the PLAAF at bay.”

Quoted from Page 139

“In the near to mid-term, then, we conclude that:

? China?s ability to suppress Taiwan and local U.S. air bases with ballistic and cruise missiles seriously threatens the defense?s ability to maintain control of the air over the strait.”

Quoted from CHAPTER SIX

“The most likely picture that emerges of a cross-strait fight in 2013 features ROCAF and U.S. land-based fighters being grounded or destroyed in the initial minutes and Taiwan?s most modern SAMs largely suppressed in that same time frame. This translates to a rapid seizure of air superiority by the Chinese. Whether Beijing wishes to exploit this situation to mount an invasion, to prosecute a protracted campaign of coercive bombardment, or in some other way, Taiwan and its U.S. ally will be in deep trouble. This much is clear.”

http://www.strategypage.com/militaryforums/6-61753.aspx