North Korea – What happens if…

Stan hyd – is there in fact, any likelihood of what you suggested, actually happening? Why should a hand-over of leadership provoke a US attack? I enjoy “what if” scenarios but only if they are rooted in some degree of reality.

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Hold on to your hats…………

I don’t think China is overly concerned with the US and probably feels American defence expenditure will lead it the way of the Soviet Union eventually.

US defence expenditure is about 4% of GDP. That’s not a level which cripples economies, & is not very different from the Chinese level. The USSR was spending maybe 15% of GDP on its armed forces, within a dysfunctional economic system.

I expect that Chinese leaders are too intelligent & well-informed to imagine that there is any similarity between the USSR in the Cold War & the current state of the USA.

I don’t think China is overly concerned with the US and probably feels American defence expenditure will lead it the way of the Soviet Union eventually. The Chinese communist Party evolved in the Yellow River Valley, the very birthplace of Chinese civilisation and I don’t think I’m exaggerating by suggesting they tend to view things with millennia worth of tradition and in terms of millennium at the very top. Patient and aloof is an understatement.

I also don’t think they have any concern about NKorea. NKorea is wholly isolationist and whilst a tad paranoid it’s the soviet kind which the Chinese broke from about 1958. NKorea definitely aren’t expansionist, they’re really less of a world problem than the United States, they don’t threaten anybody except the south. That itself isn’t even really anti-Americanism either, although US involvement inherently generated it. Anybody’s guardianship of SKorea would’ve brought resentment and more than a little local concern.
Basically the approach taken of withdrawing direct (read: military) interference in eastern political affairs and feeding SKorea good equipment, international community membership and training, effectively sponsoring them, seems to be the best road.

Considering NKorea is prone to personality cults the new leader might bring expansionist ambitions but it wouldn’t be very smart. I’d say his own military would advise strongly against it.

It’s really a non-event over there. Nothing is happening, nothing is likely to and there’s really nothing to worry about in any case. There’s a mini-iron curtain at the border and that’s about it. History would have us believe you can just wait these things out, spending your concerns on the struggle to wrap all our minds around peacetime economies in a world without warfare or so much need for massive arms buildups.

It’s already decades on and at some point the whole cold war sentiment is just going to have to run out of steam, we’re still going through the motions of an arms race between US and Russian military industries like some kind of final puff and cough but most of the world is catching on.

The US is still dodging and swinging at phantom enemies, kill the drug trade, kill the terrorists, kill kill kill, somebody has to be killed. Eventually you just have to calm down and stop building nuclear carriers and military superiority, it’s going to kill you.

Looking for enemies is just bad psychology, the enemy is you.

I looked a web-site where the author used google earth to work out the placement of SAM sites in North Korea and I was surprised at the number placed in the North of the country … makes you wonder if North Korea is also worried that one day China might solve the problem of North Korea by military invention rather than economic and political support – after all if you are going to end up with a US ally on your borders it is better to do it on your term’s than the US term’s.

Hmm probably wouldn’t be the massive international outcry you envisage. China would be annoyed, Russia could go either way. Japan, South Korea, probably most of Europe wouldn’t be too bothered or would openly support it.

And lets remember that the only nuclear weapons that North Korea can detonate would be on their own soil. They’d also be a top priority target – B2’s, Tomahawks, and a lot of US marines would be tasked onto capturing and/or destroying the nuclear sites and weapons.

The South Koreans would be rather bothered by the tens of thousands of dead & billions of dollars worth of damage they’d probably suffer as the decapitated N. Korean military went into spasm. N. Korea is though to have a lot of chemical weapons, & quite a few would probably be launched, the target list probably including every US base within reach, which would bother Japan a lot.

China would be a lot more than annoyed.

Hmm probably wouldn’t be the massive international outcry you envisage. China would be annoyed, Russia could go either way. Japan, South Korea, probably most of Europe wouldn’t be too bothered or would openly support it.

And lets remember that the only nuclear weapons that North Korea can detonate would be on their own soil. They’d also be a top priority target – B2’s, Tomahawks, and a lot of US marines would be tasked onto capturing and/or destroying the nuclear sites and weapons.

Sweet Jesus

Decapitating the entire leadership of a soberan country with a surprise attack, would have the suport of most of Europe?!
Japan and South Korea wouldnt be too bothered!

You are aware that the Capital of South Korea, Seoul, is right next to the border and is in range of roughly 6000 North Korean artilary tubes?
Not to mention nuclear weapons…

Hmm probably wouldn’t be the massive international outcry you envisage. China would be annoyed, Russia could go either way. Japan, South Korea, probably most of Europe wouldn’t be too bothered or would openly support it.

And lets remember that the only nuclear weapons that North Korea can detonate would be on their own soil. They’d also be a top priority target – B2’s, Tomahawks, and a lot of US marines would be tasked onto capturing and/or destroying the nuclear sites and weapons.

Notice how “easy” it looks when you look at this issue from your own ‘distant’ perspective? Wonder why the US or even Japan doean’t seem to see things your way… 😉

Regards, Hammer

Hmm probably wouldn’t be the massive international outcry you envisage. China would be annoyed, Russia could go either way. Japan, South Korea, probably most of Europe wouldn’t be too bothered or would openly support it.

And lets remember that the only nuclear weapons that North Korea can detonate would be on their own soil. They’d also be a top priority target – B2’s, Tomahawks, and a lot of US marines would be tasked onto capturing and/or destroying the nuclear sites and weapons.

Killing a bunch of Koreans, or anybody at all certainly isn’t any kind of outrage, nobody cares so long as we’re all good. The outrage is all in how it’s done, which is always the case, and at least the appearance somebody cares for the benefit of the general public.

All out war without a formal declaration and assassinating governments justify nuclear retaliation by any reasonable sensibilities and opens the door on way too much latent paranoia to be tolerated. How do the French know they’re not next, because you say so? You get to say who’s okay and who needs to be wiped off the map? How is the USA God exactly? How is the USA even right about anything for anybody?

Your politics, government, views and outlook are based on your populace, culture and ideologies, they are incorrect elsewhere.

The way you view the North Koreans is wrong. It is not universal. Others may disagree. That in and of itself makes you wrong about them. Because you don’t get to say who is right in this world.

What has NATO to do with it?

NATO is a mutual defence treaty applying to Europe, North America & the North Atlantic. The NATO treaty clearly states that it does not apply outside that area.

The forces in Afghanistan presently are a NATO coalition. Georgia applied for NATO membership. Turkey is a NATO member. This is registering?

The prerequisites for NATO membership is about force composition, this is the basis Georgia was refused membership…ostensibly. In actual fact, in this case it was because the RF put up a formal protest of any non-CiS peacekeeping interest in Georgia due to proximity to the Northcaucasus military district and military assets located in Georgia, they said directly that if NATO peacekeepers were sanctioned to enter Georgia by the UN a conflaguration with Russian forces was likely, in a submission made in 1998 iirc when there was still a US advisor based at Tblisi reviewing the NATO application.

Still under the terms of NATO treatise force composition is a deciding factor of membership, not geographical location.

Such an attack would be bound by international treaties to be sanctioned by NATO and tabled at the UN. A very great number of member nations would raise protests, some would sever diplomatic relations with the US. It would affect trade and you would have social unrest at home.

Probably the worst factor is that such an attack would justify nuclear retaliation under strict international treaties, so the US would be held responsible for a nuclear conflaguration in the region.

Don’t kid yourself, no government has any power without the backing of the military. Any attempt to assassinate an entire government would elicit the military infrastructure must also be destroyed.

So what you’re really talking about is all out war without any formal declaration, pretty much every nation in the world is going to have a serious problem with this.

Hmm probably wouldn’t be the massive international outcry you envisage. China would be annoyed, Russia could go either way. Japan, South Korea, probably most of Europe wouldn’t be too bothered or would openly support it.

And lets remember that the only nuclear weapons that North Korea can detonate would be on their own soil. They’d also be a top priority target – B2’s, Tomahawks, and a lot of US marines would be tasked onto capturing and/or destroying the nuclear sites and weapons.

What has NATO to do with it?

NATO is a mutual defence treaty applying to Europe, North America & the North Atlantic. The NATO treaty clearly states that it does not apply outside that area.

Such an attack would be bound by international treaties to be sanctioned by NATO and tabled at the UN. A very great number of member nations would raise protests, some would sever diplomatic relations with the US. It would affect trade and you would have social unrest at home.

Probably the worst factor is that such an attack would justify nuclear retaliation under strict international treaties, so the US would be held responsible for a nuclear conflaguration in the region.

Don’t kid yourself, no government has any power without the backing of the military. Any attempt to assassinate an entire government would elicit the military infrastructure must also be destroyed.

So what you’re really talking about is all out war without any formal declaration, pretty much every nation in the world is going to have a serious problem with this.

The military commanders left will take over and the state will become a military dictatorship instead of the whatever strange form of governance they have right now, the military will continue with the old repressive ways, however without a power hungry and mentally insane leader, their decisions will be better.

I think if the north falls their will be one Korea, some bonds run deeper than money.

Hypothetically if such a attack would happen and North Korea would surrender without a fight does anyone think the south would be able to sustain economically the north? Personally that’s why I believe the north and south will always be separated. The north may one day become a democratic nation but in my eyes it will always be independent.

This is a blueprint for chaos of George Bushian proportions! Any remaining international goodwill that Obama might still have would be wasted finally. As paranoid as the North Koreans are known to be who really believes that all the eggs would just stay there ina a single proverbial basket just available for such a freak decapitation attack by the Americans or the South Koreans.

Secondly there is still the MINOR fact that the North Koreans still have nukes and the means to use them specially if the leadership of the country is wiped out like this…

No this is not going to happen/

Regards,

Hammer

“What is the likely follow on from this?”

War on the Korean Peninsula, of course. You’re certainly not going to win North Korean “hearts and minds,” by an attack that is barely a step above typical terrorist tactics. This strikes me as an incredibly reckless and short sighted strategy.