Norway vs. China

Inspired by Jessmo’s pointless Israel vs France thread, here is another one!

Scenario 2030:

China has become full-fledged superpower both economically and militarly. However China needs more resources — stiff competition for resources have already lead to several proxy wars in Africa and South America. ME oil production has dropped dramatically.

China then decides to move North… the Svalbard archipelago is Norwegian territory however it is governed by the Svalbard treaty of 1920:

By 9 February 1920 the Spitsbergen Treaty was signed in Paris during the Versailles negotiations after World War I. In this treaty, international diplomacy recognized Norwegian sovereignty (the Norwegian administration went in effect by 1925) as well as other principles relating to Svalbard. This includes:

• Svalbard is part of Norway: Svalbard is completely controlled and part of the Kingdom of Norway. However, Norway’s power over Svalbard is restricted to limitations listed below

  [*]Taxation: This allows taxes to be collected, but only enough to support Svalbard and the Svalbard government. This results in lower taxes than mainland Norway and the exclusion of any taxes on Svalbard supporting Norway directly. Also, Svalbard’s revenues and expenses are separately budgeted from mainland Norway.

  [*]Environmental conservation: Norway must respect and preserve the Svalbard environment

  [*]Non-discrimination: All citizens and all companies of every nation under the treaty are allowed to become residents and to have access to Svalbard including the right to fish, hunt or undertake any kind of maritime, industrial, mining or trade activity. The residents of Svalbard must follow Norwegian law though Norwegian authority cannot discriminate or favor any residents of a certain nationality.

China ignores the last sentence of the last bullet point and takes this as an invitation. An oil rig is sent to Svalbard to drill off-shore the islands.

Norway is clear: Drilling must cease immediately. China does not back off and in the end Norwegian troops take control of the rig and the support ships and bring them in to the mainland.

China responds by sending an aircraft carrier group to Svalbard, consisting of:

1 carrier w. 40 marinated J-XX a/c and 6 helicopters
3 subs
3 52D destroyers
1 frigate
1 support ship

Norway:
50 F-35 armed with JSM;
5 A26 subs armed with torpedoes and adapted NSM missiles
5 Nansen frigates armed with torpedoes, SM2, ESSM and NSM
6 Skjold class “coastal corvettes” armed with NSM

I see some parallels to the Falklands war:

1. Small country vs. big
2. Conflict area close to small country, far away from big country
3. Both countries have “modern” military equipment (at the time of the conflict)

Differences to the Falkland conflict are also evident:

1. China will be much stronger militarly, compared to what the UK had
2. Norway will have small but extremely efficient and well trained forces, and with an edge in technology and capabilites vs. China

And the NSM/JSM could become the “Exocet of the Svalbard conflict”…?

Outcome?