On a Wing And A Prayer

When Boeing announced late last month for a mid-sized “Sonic Cruiser”, air travel in Asia suddenly took a whole new dimension. New air routes may be fiesable. How about nonstop service from Singapore to NY direct. Nd how about shaving a couple of those hours off those interminable trans-pacific flights?

The problem is that the new jetliner wont be operational until 2007 or later, and it is here or know that the clouds are gathering over the Asia market for aircraft manufacturers.

For starters deteriorating US-CHina relations have Boeing sweating 747 sized bullets. Boeing has no illusions about Beijings willingnes to signal displeasure with Washington by withholding busines from Boeing and going in favour of Airbus.

Most recently Airbus found buyers for its A 380 as of SIA and Qantas, then Boeing came up with the idea of the 747X, but the idea fizzled due to lack of interest, leaving the super jumbo class to Airbus. Then Boeing looked at Japan in Asia, JAL which has a 171 Boeing aircraft fleet has no plans for expanding its fleet in the next 3 years.

While nobody suggests thee sobbering developments will make Boeing also-ran in Asia. With Asia forecast to experience higher economic growth rates than Europe and North America. Boeing believes that in the next 2 decades the region will be craft-still the companies bread and butter busines despite efforts to diversify. Bair expects sales in Asia, the US and Europe to be running roughly even by 2020; today the Asian market is only half the size of each of the other 2 regions.

Much of the growtyh will be headed by China, Boeing expects CHina will be its biggest aviation market out of US , yet it remains the most confounding place to do business because politics is everywhere there.

AIrbus has already developed strong holds in China. During a trip to Europe in April, Premiere Li Peng announced a 30 jetliner order for Airbus, which included 10 aircrafts for China Southern airline till know a hole Boeing operator.

Boeing can take some solace that past snubs from Beijing havent lasted long. One year following Li Pengs AIrbus order, for example, China announced a $3 billion, 50 aircraft with Boeing that coincided with president Jiang Zemin’s visit to the US. After that CHina resumed orders to Boeing when the Belgrade US embessy attack was done.

Boeing is looking into a big market in CHina for there 717s. They did there Asian debut of the 717 with Bangkok Air of Thailand.

Also, only about 6% of the aircraft that China orders in the next 20 years will be 747s or larger. Yet here it will face competion with the A380 which Airbus thinks will be succesful in China.

It has happen before that Boeing lost to Airbus like this with orders of SIA and Qantas for A380 over the 747X. So Boeing is going to have a tough time in the next decade in Asia, which is the future leading market in the World.

So, in conclusion, what do u all think about all this??? Is Boeing still going to retain its name in Asia also with the US-China relations heating up again??

Regards
Kabir