PAF and Rafale rumors (No flaming please)

All,

I noted with interest that a Pakistan paper which has published defence rumors in the past has published this today:

http://www.pakobserver.net/200409/10/view/?page=1&id=9

PAF set to induct French Rafale jets

Aroosa Alam

Islamabad—Prestigious defence magzine Forecast International has claimed that Pakistan Air Force is set to induct state of the art jet fighter Rafales as its front line air deterrence. Senior officials of Dassault Aviation, Snecma, and Thales said on condition of anonymity,

France has given clearance for the sale of Rafale fighter aircrafts to Pakistan. The senior officials of Dassault Aviation, Snecma, and Thales were very tight lipid about the details of the deal because of the level of sensitivity of the issue to Pakistan. Dassault Aviation has been pressing Pakistan to buy Rafale for almost two years but due to financial and political situations, Pakistan has withheld the final decision.

According to the officials of Dassault Aviation, Pakistan is expected to place an initial order for 44 Rafales and take an option on another 54 of them. PAF spokesman when contacted neither confirmed nor denied the Forecast International report. Air Commodore Sarfraz said, “We have no official comment unless we know the official who has given this information”.

Pakistan Observer believes that Pakistan and France are indeed discussing the Rafale sale for last six months. A private delegation of Dassault was in Islamabad for many weeks discussing primarily the Mirage 2000-5 deal. The 2000-5 mirages were offered to Pakistan without some of the offensive capabilities that PAF required, so PAF refused to go for Mirage 2000-5. Then came up the Rafale option as Dassault is very keen to sell these fighters after the inception of Euro-Fighter.

PAF certainly got seduced to the offer as India had already inducted the SU-30MKI into its air force. Mirage 2000-5 was not the answer to PAF’s defensive and offensive requirements. The recent blow to PAF’s efforts to equip itself with a front line fighter came when Swedes refused to sell Grippen to Pakistan citing a long list of EU concerns. Although Russian flirted with Pakistan ever since Musharraf charmed Putin into his enlighted moderation, the hard liners in the Doma did not allow the Russian government to clear the sale of SU-27/30 fighters to Pakistan. However Pakistan could lay hands on MI-17 helicopters.

PAF’s last hope certainly is pinning with JF-17 which will not get on assembly line till next two years. Security planners in Pakistan feel that PAF direly needs to have at least two squadrons of front line fighters to meet any eventuality be it emanating from Eastern or the Western borders.

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I have subscription to FI and did not see any such report so I emailed them and this the response I got:

Dear Mr.xxxxxx,

I suggest you contact the Pakistan Observer and request to see what source they used for that story. Forecast International did not print any such story, nor did the Pakistan Observer reporter, Aroosa Alam, contact any Forecast International analysts for verification. We have no knowledge of Rafale fighters going to Pakistan.

Ray Peterson
———————————-
Director of Research
Forecast International
22 Commerce Road
Newtown, CT 06470 USA
Phone – 203-426-0800
http://www.forecast1.com