Since Sukhoi officials as reported by China arms expert Richard Fisher (who does have a fair reputation at CDF and have contributed there) say that China:
1. already has 300 Flankers (J-11s, MKKs),
2. is indigenizing the J-11 within 10 years so they can sell it like so many hotcakes or J-7s,
3. will begin the production of up to 1500 J-10 (which according to Fisher has garnered high praise from Sukhoi officials),
4. will be introducing into its homegrown jets “the new WS-10A, reported to be an impressive 13,200kg thrust turbofan [that] could be in service in about 5 years.”
(Now I’m inclined to disbelieve the 300 Flankers report but what the hell do I know from gathering articles and photos over the last five years? 😀
The Sukhoi people have more access to the PLAAF than me without a doubt .)
So with that in mind, one would need to track a difference path of thinking about the PLAAF.
I’m sure that most members of the Chinese forums as well as those interested in the Chinese air force in this forum has generally accepted these mainstream numbers:
1. About 120 J-11s and Russian delivered Su-27SKs with a license for 200 total,
2. 78 or so Su-30MKKs,
3. and a requirement for 300 J-10s.
The conservative estimate for the PLAAF in 10 years would therefore be:
1. 250 J-11/SKs
2. 120 MKKS
3. 200 J-10s
Now, extrapolating from the Sukhoi officials’ staements, the PLAAF circa, 2015, would have:
1. ~ 500 J-11s (with the indigenized version rapidly making up the majority)
2. 120 MKKs (assuming no change in the contractual requirements with all planes being upgraded to the MKK2 and MKK3 standards)
3. ~ 900 J-10 during its production run to 1500
😀
Indigenized J-11s with the WS-10A and such a large mass production of J-10s would probably mean Chinese exports of the planes all over the place since China is more merchantile than most.
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October 23, 2003 at 12:14 am