Possible EU Exit – What Impact On Historic Aviation?

Enjoy yourselves! :rolleyes:

Avoid the detail; ignore the trivia; eschew the narrow perspective. People quite naturally look at IN/OUT from their particular comfort zone evidenced by some of the comments above.

The future after exit is quite bright, we need have no fears. The EU needs the British market – it is too big to ignore. Our trade with the world outside the EU will continue to exceed our trade with the EU. The EU’s continuing leftist obsession with red tape and regulation and its industrial impact will gradually cease. Britain will be free to make its own choices – good or bad.

And that is my point; freedom. Freedom to choose. Freedom to make our own rules and regulations without the stultifyingly negative influence of the other members of the EU most of whom have an agenda that does not necessarily square with a British agenda.

This country is different to the member states of Europe. We have a different history. We are both the prisoner and the beneficiary of being the worlds first and longest serving super power (with a nod to Rome). We can’t ignore that fact. England has always led from the front. For forty odd years these proud islands have been subject to the control of an idealistic conglomerate that we now perceive is not working. Europe, because of that misplaced idealism is now in turmoil and there is little idea among those who would control our lives what exactly they can do about it.

We’re holding our breath watching Mrs. Merkel wriggling like a worm on a pin struggling to find a solution to a problem of her making which threatens to overwhelm what remains of the stability of the EU and all some on this forum can do is to whinge and carp about the possible consequences to their commercial viability should we have the great fortune to leave this benighted enterprise.

Raise your glass to the future; raise it to independence !

Topic moved to GD, as it has drifted somewhat from its original intention.

Nige. Spend? – No. Sell? – That’s the million dollar question.

What we have now isn’t what we aggreed to join.
We joined the European Economic Community. It was for trading reasones mainly.
What has now got out of hand is the Franco/German rush to run much of our daily lives from Brussels, with talk of closer ‘union’…
As for trade aggreements, are Europen countries going to make it difficult for us to spend the £s and €s we currently do?? I doubt it…

“You can bet your bottom dollar that the likes of Boris Johnson, IDS and Gove made sure that an exit wouldn’t have any detrimental effect on their personal wealth and circumstances before they decided to push for an “out” vote. But those it would significantly effect, well, they can go to hell on a hand cart, can’t they”

What an unpleasantly vituperative and totally unsubstantiated comment! Notable that you omitted Kate Hoey and her Labour allies from your comment. As has already been made clear neither they nor anyone else can possibly know what the effect on their “personal wealth” would be. Doesn’t it occur to you that they and the few million people represented by the around 45% for leaving actually believe they’d be better out than in for a whole host of reasons few of which will have to do with personal wealth?

I’m surprised more isn’t made of VAT by the ‘Exiters’ – national Govts can choose to impose VAT on goods, but once imposed they can’t remove it or charge less than 5% without EU approval.

And ‘EU’ imvariably means the non-elected Commission rather than the talking shop parliament.

What are the chances that there would be removal of VAT on anything post a successful Brexit? Possibly on sanitary protection, but anything else? I rather doubt it.

There is an assumption that so much will change if Brexit happens. Call me naïve – I just cant see it.

In the sector we work in (non-aviation) we cannot do business in the USA as they have protectionist rules preventing anyone other than domestic suppliers from working in this sector of their market. Those restrictions don’t exist across Europe, thanks largely to that oh so terrible legislation that the EU so crassly pumps out and imposes on everyone. The fact of the matter is that we can currently transact business anywhere within the EU, and that freedom is essential to success. We do not know what restrictions or conditions may be placed on this ability if we leave the EU, and that uncertainty alone is not good for business even ignoring any final outcome.

And we are not alone in this. Most employees who are not actively involved in the business development side of their employers business have no reason to understand the full benefits of the UK’s EU membership – why should they? However, they are constantly bombarded with the never ending stream of self-serving rubbish peddled by the UK private media and politicians who simply regard the referendum as an effective way of banging their own drum to better their own career without even considering the real world results of their actions. You can bet your bottom dollar that the likes of Boris Johnson, IDS and Gove made sure that an exit wouldn’t have any detrimental effect on their personal wealth and circumstances before they decided to push for an “out” vote. But those it would significantly effect, well, they can go to hell on a hand cart, can’t they……….

I’m surprised more isn’t made of VAT by the ‘Exiters’ – national Govts can choose to impose VAT on goods, but once imposed they can’t remove it or charge less than 5% without EU approval.

And ‘EU’ imvariably means the non-elected Commission rather than the talking shop parliament.

I quite agree about expert witnesses but of course even they are not dealing with facts, only their interpretation of what might happen. Which is why his esteemed predecessor, Mervyn King, who is diametrically opposed to Carney’s view, should also be listened to. A pity his remarks were not covered so comprehensively.

Probably a good idea, particularly as it will be some time before TO’s question has an answer!!.

Ultimately, don’t listen to anyone who has a vested interest. That may, or may not include some politicians. It certainly does include much of the right wing press. It doesn’t include well informed people like the governor of the bank of England, who was panned for his intervention, something I don’t agree with at all. Many from the ‘Out’ camp were quick to say that he shouldn’t get involved, yet if we are to form an opinion, his is exactly the kind of voice we need to hear. We need more expert witnesses – on both sides.

I think we are about to head to General Discussion with this – ultimately, I dont think it will affect our hobby much either way.

You have to trust your instincts, Trump. It’s one of those occasions where there are no clear cut choices because so much is either unknown or conjecture about what might be.

I am stuffed as to what to believe, i normally ask “if a politician wants it,what is he going going to get out of it or mores the point what am i going to lose? ” but now i have Cameron on 1 side saying stay in,Buffon Boris and IBS saying leave, so which bullet do i shoot myself with?.
How does doing aviation business in Europe compare to the USA for example?

You may be right Charlie – but I’m afraid I’m not sufficiently naïve to put the future viability of my business in the hands of others, regardless of who they are or their motives. At least having the place in France gives us options for the long term………

You can keep the Eurofighter Bruce – you know my fancy for sporty little Italian numbers – I’ll have a MC.202 Flogore if you don’t mind!

The latter is what we are now and will continue to be if we leave – the former is what we will become within the membership structure.

Precisely, Bruce. I couldn’t have put it better. Globalisation is inclusive not exclusive. We don’t need to be part of a stifling, top down, bureaucratic autocracy.

But on that last point we are agreed – time WILL tell!

So, in one scenario, we are ‘peripheral’, and in the other we are the ‘second most significant partner’?

I don’t see that Charlie. For me, globalisation changed everything. We cant be isolated even if we wanted to (not that I am suggesting that is what Brexit is about). I don’t see us in a better position by being outside of the Union.

I note that one poll is currently suggesting that the vote for exit is ahead of that against. In other news, Jeremy Corbyn’s Labour party is neck and neck with the Tories, despite being 9 points behind less than a week ago!

Time will tell.

Well of course facts are in short supply for Brexit. We simply do not know. End of story. The facts of remaining are all too clear, notwithstanding the likelihood of Britain becoming more peripheral in any case as a member of the “outer ring” of a two-tier Europe. With that will come less engagement and a gradual detachment from the Eurozone core. Alternatively, and this is my favoured scenario – the Eurozone’s inherent and deeply imbedded weaknesses will not survive the decade and that once it has collapsed the federal aspirations of the Brussel’s elite will be dashed and the EU as we know it will gradually fragment.

Not in the least – and anyone who seriously believes that Europe will suddenly take its football away in a fit of pique and make life troublesome for their second most significant partner is deluding themselves.

There is a huge amount of ignorance on both sides of the argument. The very fact that a number of very wealthy media proprietors are trying to push us towards the door makes me hugely suspicious, even if nothing else did.

There is a very good piece by Alastair Campbell on his blog at the moment. Ignoring his obvious bias towards staying in, he makes the point about the agenda of the press rather better than I ever could:

http://www.alastaircampbell.org/blog/2016/03/12/time-to-call-out-the-union-of-media-barons-lie-machines-and-their-anti-democratic-role-in-the-eu-referendum/

Right, to keep this on topic:

Spitfire! (for the Brexiteers)

Eurofighter! (for the Europhiles)

Bruce

I’m afraid ignorance of the facts will sadly play a large part in the decision process of a large number of people. There will always be an element who will be swayed one way or the other without actually finding out the facts for themselves and without looking at the potential impact on their employment and other aspects of their life. Regarding the future if the UK leaves the EU – do you really think I’m prepared to entrust the future viability of my business to the likes of messers Cameron and Johnson and whatever fudged trade deals they can negotiate?

You mentioned that your business operated in Europe for 50 years – are you still operating in the market? Do you not have concerns that any post “out” vote negotiations will impact your business?

My comment was because you were making assumptions about other people and how they may or may not come to their decision. That is what was arrogant. As it happens you and I have very similar experiences of Europe and have come to quite different conclusions about the future. And I know many others with similar experience who also fall into the leave camp.

And neither you nor me nor anyone else has the slightest idea what our new relationship might be with the EU once we have left the “club”.

Really?

Arrogant? Maybe. However it is based on my experience of being able to travel freely within the EU, operate a business on a level playing field and live where I choose on the continent. I don’t take this freedom lightly and those who vote to leave based on some naive belief that life outside the EU will be all nice and simple need to fully understand the issues this could very well bring and the implication on British business.

And if this come across as arrogant, I make no apology to you whatsoever, as it is myself, not you, who is responsible for the continued success of my business and my ability to pay my way in life. I’m sorry, but I have no time for those who want “out” – they do not pay my bills and are not responsible for the welfare of the people my business employs.

As I said before, the EU is far from perfect, but it will still be there is the UK votes to leave. And if you wish to trade with the EEA, EU legislation will still impact UK business to exactly the same extent. We do not stand to gain some utopian national independence – to believe that is simply foolish folly. What we stand to lose is the level playing field access one of the worlds largest markets which happens to be right on our doorstep.

That’s an arrogant suggestion to make.

My business traded across Europe for nearly 50 years, I owned a house in France for nearly 20 years, I have visited most countries in Western Europe and many several times a year for very many years. I love the people’s and cultures and diversity of Europe. But I strongly dislike the operation and aspiration of the EU and will be voting to leave.