QANTAS delays A380 deliveries

IMHO, election of enviro-nazi leftist politicians like Obama, and soon Hollande, will only exacerbate the economic malaise, as only economic growth will cure it.

Que?

27vet, I can appreciate that argument, without agreeing or disagreeing, simply because so many people feel that way.

Having said that, I don’t think any large airline is ordering or not ordering the A380 because of the design of the Flight Control System. IMHO, the lack of orders is due more to the fact that the airplane that is too big for a market that is fragmenting, and this fragmentation trend which began well before the A380, has now been exacerbated by a contracting world economy. IMHO, election of enviro-nazi leftist politicians like Obama, and soon Hollande, will only exacerbate the economic malaise, as only economic growth will cure it.

And keep in mind also that this is the small A380, the airplane was clearly built to be stretched and the still-born 900 continues to languish. If the small 380 is too big……well, what does that say about the stretch version?

Sorry, I’m old school here (and I studied computer science at university) I prefer Boeing’s philosophy to Airbus. He who can fly by the seat of his pants will live to fly another day (Q.E.D.)…

i believe the deferral of these few airplanes at this time is fairly significant. definitely not a “mountain” but in light of the very few orders for the airplane (only about half way to break even) and in light of the rumored 10 A380 cancellations from the Chinese, well, it seems significant to me.

That’s good news. They are basically excellent aircraft, but have looked a little tired inside and out on occasions I’ve flown on them.

Some of them are being refurbished. Apparently look very neat and tidy and fresh inside once done.

I would very much hope so. BA’s 747-400s look as if they are well into their operational lives, to put it politely.

The BA 747-400’s may not be paid for yet

It’s possible that like a house…the loan is over 25-30 years.

According to my friend in the know, BA owns every one of their 744s outright.
They are all “Bought and paid for”

Really there is nothing in this, how it’s always been

+1

-Daz

The BA 747-400’s may not be paid for yet

It’s possible that like a house…the loan is over 25-30 years.

As for QANATAS deferring A.380 deliveries, airlines have been rescheduled for deferring new aircraft orders frequently through history

This is not unusual at all but another example of a mountain being made out of a molehill.

Airliners are often ordered years before, sometimes in a boom, but by the time delivery time comes things have changed, in this case in a recession and operstional needs and competition requirements ar very differnt so they try and re adjust a bit.

Really there is nothing in this, how it’s always been

Thanks for taking up what looks like a very simple question ( but with a lot of complicated angles )

I know very little about commercial aviation myself –so I have read your replies / comments with interest . Many thanks !!

The Delta service is a 777, a 767 can’t fly that far, at least not without aux tanks!

I believe the UAL service that has competed head to head with Q for many years is a PW powered 744.

With QANTAS specifically, they seem to have had really bad timing with regard to LAX-SYD-LAX. They upgauged service, replacing their 747 with an A380 (roughly 100 seats larger) into service about the same time that a new competitor (Delta) started up on that route with a 269 seat airplane. If Delta stole 100 pax a day, and QANTAS put a plane 100 seats larger into service at the same time, I’d say that would depress yields and loads.

Imagine the debt/lease service on a new 380 versus a well used and possibly paid for 767 (I’m guessing that’s the Delta aircraft).
They’d have to fill it on every flight to make up the difference.

I agree with you aboutr decentralization…smaler aircraft going direct between city pairs versus a huge plane using hubs, but some hubs (like Sydney-LA) will always work. But there needs to be a lot of tourist traffic to fill up the cheap seats in back. With the expected rise of fuel prices, those fares won’t be going down anytime soon. Combine that with a bad economy and those seats might get hard to fill.

I wonder how many airliners have been purchased & made a loss for their airline ( or negative profit , as its known ) .

I’m sure BA has made a lot of money with their 747-400s. Everty time I fly one between SEA-LHR I wonder how long ago the plane was paid for.

I’m thinking that the seat mile costs vary widely dependent upon seating configuration, route length, etc. KAL is, I believe, only seating 407 peeps on their A380’s, whereby most other airlines seem to be in the 510-530 seat range. The same holds true for competitors: For example Air France has a seating configuration on the 777-300 of 472 seats (!). I would wager that a 472 seat 777 has a huge seat mile cost advantage over a 407 seat A380.

Having said all that, I don’t have direct/insider knowledge but believe that an 525 seat A380 has very competitive seat mile costs on most 4-5000 nm routes. The bigger question is can you fill those 525 seats at an acceptable price/yield day after day after day?

I’m one who believes the industry has been moving towards smaller airplanes and twins for 20 years now and that the A380 was a tremendous mistake. Imagine how prettily Airbus would be sitting if they had developed a bigger twin (bigger than the A330) instead of the A380. IMHO by the time the market recovers and sufficient demand develops for a 500 seater, the A380 will be obsolete, overtaken by more advanced designs. Perhaps there won’t be any significant market for such a large plane for 20 years? Let alone a stretch/-900. Where would the A380 program be without Emirates? Where are the large Asian orders?

With QANTAS specifically, they seem to have had really bad timing with regard to LAX-SYD-LAX. They upgauged service, replacing their 747 with an A380 (roughly 100 seats larger) into service about the same time that a new competitor (Delta) started up on that route with a 269 seat airplane. If Delta stole 100 pax a day, and QANTAS put a plane 100 seats larger into service at the same time, I’d say that would depress yields and loads.

AN INTERESTING QUESTION….
Are lukewarm A380 sales a result of:
-A lukewarm economy (less people going places…they could be hit hard if they’re configured for economy seating/people going on holiday…something that is often deferred in bad exconomic times)
or
-Uncertainty over fuel prices? Anyone know the GPH/seat mile (or however they figure fuel use) comparisons for the 380 with the 777 and 330?

I’m far from a 380 hater, I’m sure there is a market for the aircraft on some routes…whether there is enough of a market for the program to be an economic success is the question…(though I’m not sure that’s always an issue with some Airbus products).

What do you reckon the break even point is on a 380 purchase ??? ie, bums on seats at X amount of ££££( ticket price ) + sevicing/fuel / crew/ etc costs , amount of flights / time in the air /years owned etc .

I wonder how many airliners have been purchased & made a loss for their airline ( or negative profit , as its known ) .

At what point an airliner is ” Paid For ” Is it 15 yrs later when the breaker hands over the ” Scrap Value ” cheque ???

RAF VC10’s are not included —as they have paid for themselves many times over !!

Things will pick up. Qantas have only delayed and not cancelled.

Nice plane ..but , wrong time !! no place for Dinosaurs in the modern world !!