Southwest warns on switch to Airbus in today’s FT
Southwest Airlines would consider buying aircraft from the European group for the first time if Boeing chooses not to develop a more fuel-efficient version of its leading single-aisle jet
http://link.ft.com/r/ZE9K33/HDVRNC/FIDL3/HDCCGF/QF72F7/GX/h?a1=2011&a2=1&a3=21
By: Arabella-Cox - 29th January 2011 at 09:48
Analyst: Boeing to replace 737 soon
Analyst: Boeing to replace 737 soon
19 Comments
BY MOLLY McMILLIN
The Wichita EagleBoeing could announce a new narrow-body jetliner to replace its popular 737 aircraft by the Paris Air Show in June, a leading aerospace analyst said Thursday….
By: Amiga500 - 28th January 2011 at 14:55
The trade off with the Leap-X for the 737 is that it will spin faster. So more noise!
I’d be fairly sure that’ll also come with an associated increase in fuel consumption… (unless they are going to design a turbine especially for the 737)
By: Bmused55 - 28th January 2011 at 09:51
The trade off with the Leap-X for the 737 is that it will spin faster. So more noise!
By: Amiga500 - 28th January 2011 at 09:43
CFM has said a Leap-X for the 737 would only be marginally larger in diameter and fit under the wing with the current gear.
You sure?
Is it not a case of; they can get away with just a nose landing gear mod for Leap-X?
(While GTF requires the whole shebang)
I also wonder what compromises they would need to make to wing-pylon design to fit the engine underneath, I’m sure it would be compromised more than the aero-heads in Seattle would like.
New blade technology would allow the 737 version of the Leap-X to have fewer blades up front, but the same BPR as the A320NEO.
I think the way the ducks are lining up, the GTF is a sizable step ahead of Leap-X. I cannot back that up with any weblinks, but rumour and gossip would (quite strongly I would add) suggest that is the case.
But yeah, to summarise your (valid) point; Boeing have a single escape route of sorts. Not ideal by any means, but it would avoid a complete surrender of the market to the NEO.
By: Bmused55 - 28th January 2011 at 08:47
Absolutely.
The 737 cannot fit a larger diameter fan under the wing. Unless Boeing are prepared to lengthen the landing gear, and that comes with a host of associated problems.
….
CFM has said a Leap-X for the 737 would only be marginally larger in diameter and fit under the wing with the current gear.
New blade technology would allow the 737 version of the Leap-X to have fewer blades up front, but the same BPR as the A320NEO.
By: Arabella-Cox - 28th January 2011 at 00:02
Good point about the prop-fan designs, it is easy to forget that the A320 could have been leapfrogged early on if oil prices had remained high enough.
By: Amiga500 - 27th January 2011 at 21:12
IMHO part of the problem in this case is that the 737 platform is by now well and truly hitting its limits.
Absolutely.
The 737 cannot fit a larger diameter fan under the wing. Unless Boeing are prepared to lengthen the landing gear, and that comes with a host of associated problems.
Unfortunately, a clean slate design for 2020 from Boeing would be a disastrous move. They would miss out on a number of fundamental step changes in technology that would doom their design to ultimate failure once the Airbus next-gen single aisle arrives.
It would be a complete role reversal of the original position the A320 found itself in on introduction, expected to be decimated by the 7J7 and MD-94X.
By: mike currill - 23rd January 2011 at 09:21
Not sure about Boeing being less proactive – 707, 747 and 787 come to mind. IMHO part of the problem in this case is that the 737 platform is by now well and truly hitting its limits. It really doesn’t have much more to give in terms of growth potential – that it has come this far shows what a great design it was, but it’s starting to show its age compared to the A320 family.
That puts Boeing in a bit of a bind, an updated 737 will not be able to compete with the A320NEO while the state of the art in engine technology has not advanced far enough for them to leap-frog with a clean-sheet design. Stuck between a rock and a hard place – having got away fairly cheaply with the NG update rather than a true A320 peer a few years ago is now turning against them.
Hang on a minute, wasn’t the 707 a knee jerk reaction to the Comet entering service?
By: nJayM - 23rd January 2011 at 00:31
Same topic – different options on replacement aircraft for Southwest
Same topic – different options on replacement aircraft for Southwest
Slightly older article by a few weeks to that of the FT.
http://www.glgroup.com/News/Southwest-Airlines-fires-warning-shot-across-Boeings-bow-51982.html
Southwest Airlines fires warning shot across Boeing’s bow
January 3, 2011
Analysis by: GLG Expert Contributor
Analysis of: Southwest doesn’t rule out fleet type expansion beyond the 717
Published at: www.flightglobal.com
“Summary
Southwest Airlines fired a warning shot across Boeing’s bow when its #2 executive said the carrier is open to a third aircraft type, after the 737 and incoming 717. This opens prospects for Bombardier and its CSeries, but it’s not likely the Airbus A319neo has much of a chance.”
Mod edit: You’ve provided a link, so there’s no need to quote the entire article.
By: tenthije - 23rd January 2011 at 00:27
I guess I don’t see why the current A320 has inherently any more growth potential than the 737NG.
The main advantage, I would imagine, is that the A320 series has longer landing gear. The new jet engines have a larger diameter fan. These are easier to fit under the A320 then under the B737. Already the B737 engine cowlings are squared of at the bottom, so while further refinements may be possible, wether it’s enough is a big question.
Obviously it is possible for the 737 to increase the length of the landing gear. But doing so would require a redesign of the landing gear, the wingbox, and increase weight as well. Perhaps the landing gear needs to be moved a bit further out as well to make the longer gear fit.
Who knows, perhaps at the end of the day it is better to come up with a cross between the 737 and the 757 wingbox / landing gear. But then you might as well go for a upgraded 757 entirely!
No doubt the guys in Seattle (Chicago, whatever) will work it out.
By: nJayM - 23rd January 2011 at 00:22
Here’s an alternative route to the full FT report – no registration required
Here’s an alternative route to the full FT news item – no registration required
http://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/Southwest-warns-switch-Airbus-ftimes-3335073264.html?x=0
By: Ship 741 - 22nd January 2011 at 23:58
Growth potential – I thought that was clear from what I wrote.
I guess I don’t see why the current A320 has inherently any more growth potential than the 737NG.
By: nJayM - 22nd January 2011 at 23:17
The news from FT on line ain’t all gloomy – 10 free articles per 30 days
The news from FT on line ain’t all gloomy – 10 free articles per 30 days
Hi Garry, Ship741 and Cloud9 and any others interested in FT Aerospace news
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By: nJayM - 22nd January 2011 at 22:39
I have posted the most salient excerpts from the article
I can’t read the article:(
It’s says for registered users only:eek:
Garry
Hi Garry
I have posted the most salient excerpts from the article in the post above.
Due to the copyright restrictions imposed by FT
Copyright The Financial Times Limited 2011. You may share using our article tools. Please don’t cut articles from FT.com and redistribute by email or post to the web.
I am unable to post the entire article.
By: nJayM - 22nd January 2011 at 22:35
Here are salient excerpts from the FT article …
Due to the following FT copyright restriction I can only share some excerpts from the article “Southwest warns on switch to Airbus” FT http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/c9ebe8c4-24d7-11e0-a919-00144feab49a.html#axzz1BnhyRZOc
Copyright The Financial Times Limited 2011. You may share using our article tools. Please don’t cut articles from FT.com and redistribute by email or post to the web.
Southwest warns on switch to Airbus
By Jeremy Lemer in New York
Published: January 20 2011 22:30 | Last updated: January 20 2011 22:30
Southwest Airlines would consider buying Airbus aircraft for the first time if Boeing chooses not to develop a more fuel-efficient version of its leading single-aisle jet, the chief executive of the low-cost carrier has implied…………For Boeing, the dilemma is whether to introduce an “interim” model or to skip the round entirely by developing a completely new single aisle aircraft.
Gary Kelly, Southwest chief executive, said on Thursday that Boeing had indicated it would decide in mid-2011.
“Based on what they tell us I think we will have to evaluate our options like any business people,” Mr Kelly told investors. “If they told us we will not see a more fuel-efficient 737 for 20 years that would probably cause us to do something.”……………………
Copyright The Financial Times Limited 2011. You may share using our article tools. Please don’t cut articles from FT.com and redistribute by email or post to the web.
It’s quite clear that this report is currently unique to the FT. There is nothing but good financial news on the Southwest Airlines own web site. And I have so far not found anything else on the same theme anywhere else.
From the quotes above Gary Kelly at Southwest is unlikely to move away from Boeing in a hurry, but appears while in a position of financial strength to be evaluating strategy.
By: Bmused55 - 22nd January 2011 at 20:08
Growth potential – I thought that was clear from what I wrote.
I agree, but one has to acknowledge, the same is likely true for the A320.
I think boeing will be able to match it’s overall 15% improvement with the 737 and wouldn’t be surprised if they already have.
IMO, the A320 is too modern for it’s own good. Like most modern products, it was designed very exactly. Not too strong, not too heavy. Very well designed for its intended role. As such, there is not much to improve upon. Aside from a complete and expensive re-development (new wing, fuselage constructions, avionics, etc), Airbus have reached the limit with the improvements they can make on the A320. Else, why only a 15% improvement and the many wingtip tests of late?
By: kevinwm - 22nd January 2011 at 18:48
I think Boeing are trapped a bit,
Do they go down the route of a new design and all the associated problems or do they rehash the 737 design
It all boils down to the customer and what they want and how much money Boeing are able to spend on developments
By: Arabella-Cox - 22nd January 2011 at 16:51
Growth potential – I thought that was clear from what I wrote.
By: Ship 741 - 22nd January 2011 at 15:21
Sure, Trident, I’ll bite. Can you please inform in what regard the NG is not a “true 320 peer?” Please don’t say the FBW flight control system, which has been debated endlessly for years now, suffice to say that not all would agree that it is “better” than the old system on the 737NG.
Back to the original topic, since I can’t read the article, what is Southwest’s timeline? The interesting part about the Delta piece is that they need planes starting in 2013, ie., before the A320NEO will be available.
By: Arabella-Cox - 22nd January 2011 at 14:29
Not sure about Boeing being less proactive – 707, 747 and 787 come to mind. IMHO part of the problem in this case is that the 737 platform is by now well and truly hitting its limits. It really doesn’t have much more to give in terms of growth potential – that it has come this far shows what a great design it was, but it’s starting to show its age compared to the A320 family.
That puts Boeing in a bit of a bind, an updated 737 will not be able to compete with the A320NEO while the state of the art in engine technology has not advanced far enough for them to leap-frog with a clean-sheet design. Stuck between a rock and a hard place – having got away fairly cheaply with the NG update rather than a true A320 peer a few years ago is now turning against them.
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January 21, 2011 at 11:49 am