In the light of the troubles brewing up behind the horizon in the Iran/Israel/USA triangle, lets do a little “Sandkastenspiele”:
In case Israeli and/or U.S. forces attack Iran’s nuclear facilities, how could Iran (i) defend itself against such doings, and (ii) respond to such doings?
I think an attack would be executed as an suprise attack (well, sort of) with cruise missiles from subs plus airstrikes with manned fighter bombers (maybe also something involving special forces on the ground). It would be a classic start with attacks – of course supported by all kinds of ECM – against C2 facilities, radar stations, air defense, etc, and then against the primary targets, the known nuclear facilities. Such an attack cannot be parried, also some fighterbombers might be shot down by Iran’s (short) range air defense (they have SA-2/-5/-6/(-10) plus loads of short range stuff, mostly AAA). So, starting a war in style isn’t that difficult, but what would be Iran’s responding draw?
# attack the oil facilities in the sheikdoms all along the Persian Gulf (and the Caspian Sea)? With ballistic missiles (they have 300 or so Scuds) and their Su-24?
# close the sealanes (with FPBs, Mines, ASMs, …) in the Persian GulF and the Arabian Gulf?
# invade Iraq and try to cut off the U.S. forces? They have 1200 MBTs and about 500.000 standing ground troops.
# terror attacks all over the West? Possibly with unconventional B&C assets?
# do nothing until “The Bomb” is ready and then – booom someplace, sometime?
And what would be the short-term results of such an attack?
# Kofi Annan deeply worried?
# no more nuclear R&D in Persia? or more and faster?
# a big war in the middle east?
# revolution in Egypt and Pakistan?
# all muslimi in the West in c-camps? (for their own security of course)
# crude at USD150 a barrel? (hello electro-mobiles and horses!)
# gold at USD800 an ounce? (cool! I’m gonna be real rich!)
# uprise all over the Islamic world? From Western Sahara to Indonesia? (not really)
Sign In
September 22, 2004 at 6:11 pm