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The Airline Industry – The Future

On the train back from London to Manchester yesterday afternoon, I found myself pondering the changes in the airline industry over the past 15-20 years – the advent of the “low-cost” airlines, the demise of historic operators like Pan Am and TWA and the introduction of ETOPS, to name but a few.

So I was wondering………….. what do you think will happen to the airline industry over the next 20 years? What changes and innovations will we see?

Over to you…………………….

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By: mesabavirtual - 18th January 2007 at 17:58

Don’t forget Eurofly’s A319CJ from Italy to New York 😀

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By: adamdowley - 17th January 2007 at 23:55

Fair comment. I wasnt really aiming it at MAXjet or EOS because i quite like there style to buisness but we have a few new airlines that are starting or just waiting for AOCs (Silverjet, L’avion, Icon) Surely at one point the FAA and CAA are going to have to put a stop on newcommers

Putting a stop to newcomers like Silverjet and Icon would be a dream come true for the big legacy airlines flying similar routes. lol. In reality, I don’t think it will happen. Thats becuase newcomers introduce more and more competition into the market and the CAA and the FAA like that becuase we like it. This means that the incumbent airlines (the legacy carriers AF, BA, AA etc) will have to try and compete. They compete by lowing their own ticket prices and increasing advertising etc etc.

And that means that there is a winner in all this – you and me – we get to fly cheaper!:)

Thinking about it, ‘openskies’ (or not openskies as the case maybe) could indirectly restrict the number of airlines able to fly across the Atlantic but I’m don’t know much about all that stuff. Anyone? Thats another concept that will surely continue to affect the industry in the next few years.

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By: Oasis747 - 17th January 2007 at 23:39

Fair comment. I wasnt really aiming it at MAXjet or EOS because i quite like there style to buisness but we have a few new airlines that are starting or just waiting for AOCs (Silverjet, L’avion, Icon) Surely at one point the FAA and CAA are going to have to put a stop on newcommers

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By: adamdowley - 17th January 2007 at 23:35

And also. All these “Low Cost first/buisness class ventures” going bust. There is no need for any of them. As being discused on a.net. MAXjet are dropping routes. For god sake(please excuss me) but why do we need 400(exagerating) 767s or 757s with 50-100 seats flying across the atlantic on the same routes. They are:-
NYC-LON(MAXjet, EOS, Silverjet, ICON, Privatair)
NYC-PARIS(l’avion)
MIAMI-LON(ICON)
and a few others

The only long haul low cost airlines i can see working are:-
Oasis hk
An airline based in Tokyo flying to Europe and the states
An airline based in India flying to the States and a few european destinations
Basically Asia on a whole.

Any comments people…?;) 😉 😉

the business class ventures are working at the moment because they are able to undercut the legacy carriers and provide business class services at lower prices than the traditional legacy carriers. on top of that, MAXjet and EOS fly into/out of Stansted which, to some business travellers is more appealing that the congested, stressful LHRs and LGWs of this world.

I can see those two airlines atleast continuing to operate for as long as they can provide cheaper high quality business class services.

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By: Oasis747 - 17th January 2007 at 23:20

Airlines such as Oasis will become majour success stories…

Agree on that part.
And also on the India China airline markets(that is now why im considering moving out there when i have all my qualification. Indian Airlines most prob:D)

Any how.
I seem to be looking total different to what you guuys think. Europe dominated by just one of the two rivals(The other swallowed up by the competion.) I also think that embraer are going to realise a new aircraft with large amount of seats.

And also. All these “Low Cost first/buisness class ventures” going bust. There is no need for any of them. As being discused on a.net. MAXjet are dropping routes. For god sake(please excuss me) but why do we need 400(exagerating) 767s or 757s with 50-100 seats flying across the atlantic on the same routes. They are:-
NYC-LON(MAXjet, EOS, Silverjet, ICON, Privatair)
NYC-PARIS(l’avion)
MIAMI-LON(ICON)
and a few others

The only long haul low cost airlines i can see working are:-
Oasis hk
An airline based in Tokyo flying to Europe and the states
An airline based in India flying to the States and a few european destinations
Basically Asia on a whole.

Any comments people…?;) 😉 😉

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By: KabirT - 17th January 2007 at 05:29

In the next 20 years airliner design will be driven by environmental impact over anything else. How this works when a carbon airliner catches fire I’m not sure…..

The A320 replacement is shaping up….and may hold a surprise or 2 in configuration aimed at increasing versatility.

The GTF will make a big impact on the scene, and may well be looked at for much larger engines.

Agree with this thought bank mostly. Enviornmental impact will play a major role in the next few years. Specially in Europe seeing how the EU is out to cut green house emissions. India and China will become worlds biggest aviation markets, with “people carriers” taking dhape and breaking even very quickly.

Airlines such as Oasis will become majour success stories… AND i do not see aviation technology and advancement in it taking any major leaps as such for at least he next 10 years.

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By: coanda - 16th January 2007 at 23:22

In the next 20 years airliner design will be driven by environmental impact over anything else. How this works when a carbon airliner catches fire I’m not sure…..

The A320 replacement is shaping up….and may hold a surprise or 2 in configuration aimed at increasing versatility.

The GTF will make a big impact on the scene, and may well be looked at for much larger engines.

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By: Bmused55 - 16th January 2007 at 20:40

I hope that within 20 years, civil aircraft will move onto a cheaper, renewable and greener form of fuel.

Otherwise, the usual: Airlines will come and go. Major incidents will continue to rock the core of aviation.

If my time spent following this industry has told me anything, its that anything can and often does happen and the nature of the beast is so fluid, its hard to tell what will happen next week, to say nothing about 20 years from now.

I’ll be 46, thats for sure. But with my newly chosen choice of career, even that isn’t a certainly anymore!

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By: mmemovements - 16th January 2007 at 20:20

I believe that the bigger low costs will take over, as Andrew said, and also I think regional airlines such as Flybe and Eastern will continue to grow. One big revolution in the last 20 years and the next 20 years (I believe) will be the loss of charter airlines on short haul routes, mostly concentrating on long haul routes (such as Monarch are doing now)

Scott

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By: adamdowley - 16th January 2007 at 18:45

I agree with Andrew – there will be fewer low cost carriers as the big loco’s buy the smaller carriers.

I also believe that BAA Stansted will have new owners as ownership of the three main London airports is split up on the grounds that BAA has an unfair monopoly. I think BAA may also lose some of its Scottish Airports.

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By: andrewm - 16th January 2007 at 18:40

I can see consolidation happening. By this I mean I can see “super” low cost airlines emerging. I could easily see ryanair easyjet being the only two airlines covering europe conclusively.

I believe the flybe’s of europe have a role to play and could easily take away traffic from the likes of BA and BMI in long term.

I do believe the likes of BMI will look further towards long haul over short haul but I can see them still making money on business class travel within the United Kingdom – especially if a properly led expansion plan put them up against BA and they won.

I think in the long term airlines will look to have as much commonality as possible and this could lead to more inhouse maintaince for the bigger ones, which for the most part is already in practice.

My two cents anyway!

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