Current state of market:
100-120 seats – E jets; [2+2]
150-220 seats – A320/B737 families [3+3]
250 – B757 [3+3] —– discontinued
225-300 – B767 [2+3+2] —– essentially discontinued
Current orders for A320 neo family:
A319: 45
A320: 2402
A321: 564
737 max family:
737-7: 81
737-8: 1423
737-9: 418
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4 of the biggest limitations of the current dominant narrowbodies are:
– cargo space
– overhead bin space
– turn around time
– no real coverage of the capacity requirements between 220-280 seats
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With all the above in mind, when Airbus and Boeing finally do come around to replace the 320/737 families, do folks here think they’ll go with:
– a single family with the centre being ~175 pax (2-class), the stretch being ~210 pax and the shrink ~140 pax.
Given the bulk of neo/max orders, it would seem airlines are more interested in sizing up than down.
– not a single replacement family and the larger of those families is not a single aisle? Smaller family center being ~160 pax (2-class), stretch = ~190 pax, shrink = ~130 pax. Larger family centre ~240 pax (2-class), stretch = ~270 pax, shrink = ~210 pax.
The larger family would be suited to thinner long range routes than a 787 can handle, can truck more cargo than a single aisle and can be turned around much quicker (and also more overhead space per seat than a single aisle). But, despite better seat-mile costs would be more expensive to build and operate (per flight) than a single aisle.
There is very little to stop them evaluating the twin aisle family now I guess and they aren’t seemingly that bothered, but I definitely feel there is a gap in the market between A321 and 787-8/A330-200.
If UAC or Comac had any sense at all, they’d get straight into that niche – they’ve the financial backing to survive long enough to make the return off a thin market. If Bombardier had finished the CSeries and were pulling in cash from it, it’d maybe make sense for them too (albeit they might not like the possibility of a slow return on investment).
By: Amiga500 - 28th February 2015 at 21:12
Makes the post meaningless
Not really. The question of whether and how the 757/767 are replaced will directly affect the main single-aisle market.
By: garryrussell - 27th February 2015 at 13:16
Makes the post meaningless
By: Amiga500 - 27th February 2015 at 11:34
Since when has a Boeing 767 been a narrow body?
Its not… but I decided it was worth including when writing the first post.
By: garryrussell - 27th February 2015 at 09:42
Since when has a Boeing 767 been a narrow body?
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February 26, 2015 at 5:14 pm