February 10, 2005 at 9:44 pm
Now that it’s official that North Korea has “the bomb” – how could they use it?
[There are many ways to use a groundbased nuclear warhead – as a mine for example, which would really be strictly defensive. Or you load it onto a fishing boat and float to your target. Or a (miniature) submarine and float into a harbor. Many ways. But this is an aviation forum.]
That truly is a land of darkness (not that things here are as bright as could be, but they are not only an outpost of tyranny, they are the very heart of dark tyranny. Poor missents. What a waste! Those lost generations. Strangely that NK system is more typical for Korean history, than the realitive freedom of the capitalistic southern system). So I don’t think they’d use it defensively in case they decide to use it. They would want to hit Japan most likely, maybe an U.S. base on Japan, but that would be a waste, so I bet they’d fire it against Tokyo. I wouldn’t see the point using it against Seoul, but then again…
Their bombs are said to be low yield, pure fission bombs, said to be in the 10-15kt range, but propably dirty. An instrument of terror.
The classical way of a new-borne nuclear power is to fit the bomb under an aircraft. But I speculate it is too big to fit under a MiG-29 or the like. Maybe they could integrate it into their Il-28, for a suicide mission. And send all of their Il-28 in a suprising swarm attack against their target. Chances are, that one or two would survive and make it. Range of something like that would be about 1200nm = Japan.
Another possibility would be a civilian Air Koryo airliner. Don’t say a word, play nice, and then suddenly booom. Air Koryo serves, besides other destinations (they even have a website! slow it is.) Hongkong, Bangkok, Vladivostok. A slight deviation, maybe an “emergency” could bring them over Japan. Or even further, one of their Il-76 could be modified to fly out to 5000nm+, which would bring them to the U.S. west coast, or Australia. A long flight and a small chance, but possible, esp if you consider the relative lack of air defense on the west coast.
And then there a ballistic missiles. The “No Dongs” with about 650nm = Japan.
The “Taepodong-1” is said to be capable of launching 1500kg up to 1300nm = Japan. And the “Taepodong-2” might reach 3000nm = Guam, Aleutian Islands, maybe Pearl (but it doesn’t seem to be very reliable).
If I were Japan I would be worried.
Btw, the U.S. currently&officially have no land-based nuclear warheads on the peninsula.
Opinions?