The Rise of U.S. Nuclear Primacy

Interesting article in Foreign Affairs (http://www.foreignaffairs.org/20060301faessay85204-p30/keir-a-lieber-daryl-g-press/the-rise-of-u-s-nuclear-primacy.html) current issue.

For four decades, relations among the major nuclear powers have been shaped by their common vulnerability, a condition known as mutual assured destruction. But with the U.S. arsenal growing rapidly while Russia’s decays and China’s stays small, the era of MAD is ending — and the era of U.S. nuclear primacy has begun.

The United States is now seeking to maintain its global preeminence, which the Bush administration defines as the ability to stave off the emergence of a peer competitor and prevent weaker countries from being able to challenge the United States in critical regions such as the Persian GulfWashington will have what strategists refer to as “escalation dominance” — the ability to win a war at any level of violence .
It also says that the US is deliberately pursuing the capacity of a first strike, decapitating strike at China and Russia. Russia is loosing gradually its capacity of a retaliatory strike against the US, while China is decades away from having one.
Interesting figures too : such as the fact that Russia’s nine SLBM are mostly in port, lacking training and all strategic bombers are only on two basis, where they could be destroyed.
The whole article suggests that the US might be tempted by a decapitating strike in the next years, disarming Russia /China. The MAD theory is on the demise and hawks are happy about it… because it would mean a strong US preminence.
Frightenining … the benefits of nuclear primacy will be trumped by the dangers.