Thoughts on the F-16s

In the next ten to 15 years, there’s going to be tons of F-16s hitting retirement age, and looking for a new home.

I think the US manuever on the Pak F-16 issue represents a way how to deal with the influx of future surplus F-16s in a way that is politically advantageous. Frankly I don’t think Pakistan will ever get Block 60s (maybe in 15 years or so) but used Block 15s or early Block 30 F-16Cs or Ds will be open.

There is going to be a major worldwide market on F-16 refurbishment, along with the marketing of replacement radars and avionics for the F-16s. Many of these planes will filter down to less wealthy countries, while countries that have existing Vipers will welcome surplus F-16s to buff up their fleet. One country that needs to get more F-16s is Taiwan, even if used. It would probably cost less than to make a new F-CK-1 than a surplus F-16, additional Mirage 2000s are no longer an option, which leaves you with F-16s.