Timeline: SU deliveries to China and related events

[updated:LAST EDITED ON 23-10-02 AT 02:09 PM (GMT)]
This is a work in progress, so I’m still adding data and making corrections when more data becomes available. The data is a collage of information from different sources.

A Timeline of Events

1991 Order of 24 SU-27SK and -UBK aircraft. All -SK aircraft are built by KnAAPO, and all -UBK aircraft by IAPO. In addition to No. 25 and 26, No.1 and No. 2 are UBKs. The cost for the SK is approximately $32 million while the UBK is about $35 million.

1992 June. Delivery of first batch, 8 SU-27SKs and 4 SU-27UBKs.

1992 November. Delivery of 12 SU-27SKs, plus two complementary SU-27UBKs for pilot and technician training (No. 25 and 26.)

1994 Second order made. 22 SU-27SK aircraft, 6 of which are SU-27UBK two seaters.

1995 Delivery of second order. There are two additional complementary aircraft, marked No. 49 and No. 50. This makes a total of 50 aircraft in the first two batches, confirmed by photograph of SU-27SK PLAAF serial number No. 49 and No. 50. One report says a number of these aircraft may have Zhuk-27 radar for testing purposes. These aircraft could be No. 49 and No. 50. Unlike the first order, it now appears the second batch includes Sorbatsya ECM pods, presumably a new version.

1996. License to manufacture 200 planes signed. The total cost of the license was $2.5 billion, of which $600 million was for knocked down kits, technical documentation and training. Some reports say 150, others 250, even 300. Currently the most popular quoted number is 200. It should be noted there is no confirmation on the final number of the license. According Jane’s and Chinese website reports, this was said to be the -SMK variant. However, production turned out to be the basic -SK variant, although Chinese websites and internet posters continue to refer to the license as -SMK.. It may have been possible that China bought the SU-27 license at the SMK level for technological headroom for upgrades in the future. Provisions of this license include 70% maximum local content, 30% minimum Russian content. Engines license is not granted and have to be procured from Russia. No second export is not allowed. Any changes in the specification or improvements must be notified to the Sukhoi bureau. If production numbers are not attained, China can exercise an option for Russia to build the SU-27s. China is now allowed/required to set up maintenance facilities for the engines, where as previously it had to send the planes or engines to Russia for overhaul.

1997 April. 14 SU-27s were seriously damaged in a typhoon. Three were irreparably damaged. One report, needing verification, says that the aircraft was replaced for free, presumably from the Russians’ own inventory, part of an expression of good will between Russia and China.

1998. Two test planes assembled and flew for the first time over Shenyang. But due to poor quality, had to be re-manufactured.

1999. July, a deal for 38 SU-30MKK was signed, with the approximate cost of each plane around $37 million. To be delivered in 2000-2001. Both SU-30MKK 501 and 502 prototypes displayed multirole capability and support for various missiles—R-77, R-27, R-73, Kh-31a, Kh-31p, Kh-59ME and Kh-29T. Many reports say the deal is 40 aircraft (consistent to 38 ordered plus two free), but there are other reports that contend it’s 45, and some even say 48.

1999 July. 28 SU-27UBK deal signed, with each plane about $35 million. All -UBK orders are handled by IAPO, while -SK and -MKK orders are handled by KnAAPO. Delivery began in December 2000, with serial numbers #51 and above, with the completion of order in 2002. These aircraft featured an improved N001 variant (N001V?) that can simultaneously engage two targets with R-77s..

2000 Shenyang Aircraft Corporation begins serial assembly of SU-27, a.k.a J-11. 14 were presumably built by the end of the year. It is possible that these planes may be equipped with a modernized N001 radar that enables R-77 compatibility and simultaneous two target engagement.

2000 August. An SU-30MKK prototype was said to been handed ceremoniously over to China. Some reports say it’s “502″ but “502″ itself was reported handed over to China in the November Zhuhai airshow. This could mean this prototype is “501″ itself, as “501″ which used to make regular air show appearances, was already absent by Zhuhai 2000 and MAKS2001.

2000 November. SU-30MKK Prototype “502″ was said to have been ceremoniously handed over at Zhuhai airshow.

2000 December. China receives the first 10 SU-30MKK from KnAAPO. These are equipped with the N001VE radar. Simultaneously 8 of the third batch IAPO built SU-27UBK with N001V were received and assigned to the Chengdu region.

2001 March. First weapons package for the SU-30MKK received, including Kh-31, Kh-29 and Kh-59 missiles.

2001 April. CCTV showed an SU-30MKK firing an KH-59ME.

2001 July. China signs contract for the second order of SU-30MKK, presumably 38 aircraft. Reports vary from 38 or 40. It was originally believed that the deliveries of this order was to begin on the end of 2003. Instead, delivery began on August 2002 with the first ten planes and to be completed by early to mid 2003. Once again, two free planes are possible.

2001 August. 10 more of the SU-30MKK received for the first order, representing the second batch. MAKS2001 held in Russia showing a third SU-30MKK “prototype” called “503″, whose unfinished paint condition suggests a serial production SU-30MKK on loan for publicity purposes as a replacement for “501″. “503″ first appeared along side with 502 in publicity photographs. Note there is never a picture of 501 and 503 together. The publicity pictures of 502 and 503 together suggests they were taken between August and November of 2000. After the show, presumably, 503 had its paint job completed and shipped as part of the 10 plane shipment in August or the 18 plane shipment in December. It is probable that “503″ may have been used to test the Zhuk-MS radar.

2001 August. Flight International revealed that the radar for the SU-30MKK would be changed to the Zhuk-MS in the third batch. The wording seemed confusing as to “batch” is defined per delivery, or per order. If per delivery, this would refer to the next 18 planes. If per order, this would mean the third order yet unannounced at that time. Yet sources also collaborate on the radar change after the 20th plane.

2001 December. The last 18 SU-30MKK received from the first order and could be the first SU-30MKKs with the Zhuk-MS radar.

2001 Possibly a total of 20 J-11s were finished by the end of 2001.
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2002 March. Annual spring exercises may have showed the most frequent and most intensive use of the Flankers in exercises yet, including use of SU-30MKKs.

2002 May. CCTV held a celebration in honor of the Shenyang Aircraft Company right in TV. It appears to be a show celebrating not just SAC’s anniversary, but also for a job well done. This may imply satisfactory progress in meeting quality and quota standards, probably for the J-11 program—the show featured two newly built SU-27s on stage. Other than a “J-11A” mockup in a Shenyang display stand the year before, this was the first time China acknowledged domestic construction of the SU-27, and the first time such planes were ever seen up close. One report suggests that local content on the J-11 has reached as high as 60%. With increasing domestic content, the flyaway cost of the plane as volume increases, is expected to drop.

2002 June. There was a report on an acceleration of production in SAC, XAC and CAC plants with full 24 hour shifts. This suggests a major effort to increase production rate for J-11. Prediction—30 aircraft built for the year 2002. With increased domestic content and less reliance on components from former Soviet republics, there should be less bottlenecks.

2002 July-August, China signs another contract for the third order of SU-30, now SU-30MK2, presumably a new navalized variant for the airborne arm of the Chinese Navy, the PLANAF. Delivery, probably with two complementary aircraft, was to commence in 2003. Reports differ from 28, to 38 or 40 aircraft. Reports also say Kh-31a capability and Zhuk radar, although such news seem belated as such capability already exists with previous aircraft. If following previous patterns of orders, this may be for 38 aircraft, with two possible additional gift/evaluation planes.

2002 July-August. First reported test of R-77s fired from SU-30MKKs, even though R-77 purchase was first reported in 2000.

2002 August. The first 10 of the second batch of SU-30MKK delivered, assumably based on Series 2.

2002 September, the last 6 SU-27UBK of the third batch is expected to be delivered by IAPO. Two free aircraft may have been included with the deliveries (for a total of 30.)

2002 October. All weapons of the SU-30MKK were successfully fired and tested.

2002 November. Zhuhai air show. Putin will visit China later in the month, and procuring more arms sales are probably part of the agenda.

2002 December. Possible delivery of 10 more SU-30MKKs.

2003 (All Year) Delivery of second SU-30MKK expected to be completed and third order delivery to begin, ending in 2004. Local production of J-11/SU-27SK may end on the 80th aircraft, which can occur sometime in the year, giving way to a more advanced variant. Some reports presumed it may be SU-30MKK (J-11B? JH-11?), others an improved single seater variant (J-11A?) with SD-10 compatibility, multirole and midflight refueling capability. Reports suggest SU-30MKK license could entail as much as 250 aircraft.

Notes on weapons and complementary purchases:

R-73 Possibly over 3200 of these have been delivered.

R-27 144 R-27R/Ts were ordered in 1991 and delivered the year after. 144 R-27ET/ERs ordered in 1994 and delivered the year after. A long term deal was signed with 1860 R-27R/Ts and 1860 R-27ER/ETs on 1995. By 2001, 600 R-27R/Ts and 600 R-27ER/ETs were delivered. Presumably, the deliveries had stopped.

R-77 100 R-77s were ordered in 2000 and presumably received in 2001. There was another report for 400 missiles but cannot be verified—the 100 R-77s could be the first batch of a much larger order. The low numbers suggest a try out phase, or simply a stop gap to the PL-12/SD-10.

Kh-31 Both -a and -p versions were said to have been licensed for production in China as YJ-91. Used also for JH-7A.

Kh-29T Ordered and tested but no verifiable quantities known. Total requirements may be as high as 2000 missiles.

KH-29L China is also said to have bought this, but the user of this missile is not likely to be any of the Flankers. Probably for JH-7A or Q-5E instead.

KAB-500kr Probably licensed.

KAB-500L Laser guided. Probably licensed but Flankers are not the end users of this weapon in the PLAAF. Probably for JH-7A instead.

KH-59ME Ordered and tested.

Kh-35 Order for air launched versions signed in deal signed around October 2001. This order may have be as a result of the failure to integrate the C801K to the SU-30MKK.

Sokol Armstrade also reported the sale and shipment of 20 sets of Sokol radar sometime in 2001, presumably for the J-10, but another report saying it’s for the JH-7A. This indicates the unsureness of the final destination of the radars. As the radar seems fairly hefty for the J-10 and JH-7A, one cannot rule out possibility that these may be used in some upgraded SU-30MKKs for testing and evaluation purposes.

C-801K Attempts to integrate this antiship missile on the SU-30MKK so far has been a failure.

C-802K Integration attempts still unknown but this missile should be high in the priority list.

PL-12 Also known as the SD-10, this missile appears to be a Chinese-Russian joint venture with the R-77 seeker mated to a PL-11 body. Combining Russian and Chinese technologies may be an attempt to create a uniform standard missile that can be used on both Russian and Chinese made aircraft. The deployment of this missile is strategically important for the PLA, and emphasis may be made on the next variant of the J-11 to be compatible with this missile.

PL-5/8/9 Standard IR AAMs of the PLAAF. While no SU-27/30 has been seen carrying these missiles, compatibility is possible as demonstrated by the F-8IIM prototype, where these missiles were slaved to a Russian made Zhuk radar.

A50U Since the Phalcon deal was aborted, the PLAAF has ordered the A50U instead. It is felt however that the Russian systems are inferior to the Israeli Phalcon, a reason why India is also acquiring the Israeli system. Yet any AWACS are better than nothing. Four aircraft were ordered, presumably at a price of $200 million each, with the first deliveries in 2002. A domestic AWACS is also rumored to be under development.

IL-76 The PRC has began negotiations to purchase as many as 40 IL-76 tankers, perhaps with an initial order of 6 to 7. Previously the PLAAF used H-6 as their tankers. The large number of tankers may indicate that a large fleet of aircraft with midair refueling is being projected.

Others Various cruise missiles. A “YJ-12″, a supersonic ramjet missile appeared in mockup form in a JH-7 display and could be planned as the standard land and ship attack cruise missile for the PLAAF and PLANAF. JDW also mentioned the likelihood of Flankers to be launching indigenous land attack cruise missiles.