Ukraine proposes missile defence cooperation with West

Exactly…
Once the delivery was purely on 20 liquid fueled DF-5/5A. DF-31 (which is single warhead) can only reach a tiny part of the CONUS.
…

From memory, those 20 DF-5/5A(mounted in silos) are considered “first strike” weapons. Armed and ready to go. The reasoning behind the tiny numbers is to prevent an accidental launch. The rest of the retaliatory force of DF-5/5A are stationed in horizontal tunnels dug in the central mountain ranges. The number of these DF-5/5A is unknown, but probably at least 100 (armed with either 3MT or 5MT warheads).

DF-5 is same as CSS-4

That was because China has a tiny ICBM force, and the ABM shield, together with US B2 stealth bombers and SSGNs pose a serious threat to the Chinese second strike nuclear deterrent. Why else do you suppose China is spamming 094 SSBNs and pushing the DF31A so hard recently?

Exactly…

PRC has allot more to fear about an ABM shield. It is believed the PRC arsenal is between 150 – 400 warheads (some put it at a higher value though). That is tiny compared to US and Russia. The need for MIRVed JL-2/DF-31A is pretty clear. Once the delivery was purely on 20 liquid fueled DF-5/5A. DF-31 (which is single warhead) can only reach a tiny part of the CONUS.

B-2, B-1B, B-52, SSBN, SSGN (and mabe F-22)
LGM-30, UGM-133, BGM-109, AGM-86

And who knows what else….

And add to that an advanced multi-layer ABM shield….yikes…:eek:

PRC has allot more to worry than Russia…

From memory, China side with Russia on the US/Poland/Czech ABM controversy. AFAIK, China is the only country openly supports Russia on that ABM controversy.

That was because China has a tiny ICBM force, and the ABM shield, together with US B2 stealth bombers and SSGNs pose a serious threat to the Chinese second strike nuclear deterrent. Why else do you suppose China is spamming 094 SSBNs and pushing the DF31A so hard recently?

I find it amusing that the same people who were so upset by the idea of Iran and N.Korea having nukes and developing ICBMs are all but suggesting the west help supply nuclear ICBM tech to Ukraine if they can’t remaster the knack themselves.

Rest assured, even if Russia was not planning to throw anything more dangerous then harsh language at the Ukrainians, they would be scrambling to stage a coup or engineer an excuse for invasion at the first whiff of Ukraine trying to develop nuclear weapons. Without nukes, all ICBMs are are stupidly expansive unusable white elephants.

From memory, China side with Russia on the US/Poland/Czech ABM controversy. AFAIK, China is the only country openly supports Russia on that ABM controversy.

Chinese position is nothing practical. Just like Western EU. Russian position demands more active participation like change the borders that make system redundant or put so much economic squeeze that make it un affordable.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/americas/1309605.stm
Wednesday, 2 May, 2001, 21:47 GMT 22:47 UK
Germany warns US on missile defence
Germany has underlined European concerns about a new American defence plan, urging President George W Bush not to go ahead with a controversial missile system until he has examined the consequences for arms control.
Foreign Minister Joschka Fischer said any change to the military balance between the major powers should be based on co-operation, not confrontation.

There is precedent for missile and warhead parts lying around in piles…Russia did use a lot of the missiles they got from the Ukraine to provide spares for the ones they had in service, particularly the SS-24s that were built in the Ukraine.

Maybe it’s irony, or maybe not. It was U.S. Senator Sam Nunn’s idea to advise Russia to gather up all the loose nukes from her former satellite states during the collapse of the Soviet Union during the 90’s. And Russia followed up on that advice. It was also Sen. Nunn’s idea to advise Russia to rid of the 2 most powerful weapon system in her arsenal, the SS-18s and the SS-24s. Russia partially complied. Russia did destroyed all her SS-24s, but only a portion of the SS-18s. IMHO, the reason why Russia refused to destroyed all her SS-18s, is because the West reneged on agreement not to expand NATO’s influence right up to her borders.

This thing is not good for China standing in world. Showing weakness to West which will conveniently used against China for very long time to come as those issues are not going to go away. In internatioanl affairs only those countries can earn respect that can apply double standards.

From memory, China side with Russia on the US/Poland/Czech ABM controversy. AFAIK, China is the only country openly supports Russia on that ABM controversy.

Not only Taiwan. But also Tibet.

China is happy with what Russians are doing. But will not openly support them for the time being.

This thing is not good for China standing in world. Showing weakness to West which will conveniently used against China for very long time to come as those issues are not going to go away. In internatioanl affairs only those countries can earn respect that can apply double standards.

http://afp.google.com/article/ALeqM5guAa5jCMIWCy-SMYWZY4-0451p5w
China cannot back Russia in Georgia crisis: analysts

Support for Russia on this would be an arguement for Taiwan’s independence. No wonder China is keeping it’s mouth shut on this one. :diablo:

Not only Taiwan. But also Tibet.

China is happy with what Russians are doing. But will not openly support them for the time being.

China has an image it needs to uphold. It does not want looking inconsistent on matters like this.

China has not condemned Russia’s action and has indirectly criticized NATO through subtle wording in the SCO statement. All to make Russia happy. However, China, as well as the rest of the SCO other than Russia, isn’t recognizing the break away provinces either. I think China has made clear its stance privately to the Russian leadership.

Support for Russia on this would be an arguement for Taiwan’s independence. No wonder China is keeping it’s mouth shut on this one. :diablo:

China has an image it needs to uphold. It does not want looking inconsistent on matters like this.

China has not condemned Russia’s action and has indirectly criticized NATO through subtle wording in the SCO statement. All to make Russia happy. However, China, as well as the rest of the SCO other than Russia, isn’t recognizing the break away provinces either. I think China has made clear its stance privately to the Russian leadership.

Plus regardless of who is in power, the Ukraine seems to be quite sided with China, having supplied components like engines for tanks and warships, helped provided maintenance and engine expertise on aircraft such as the Su-27, and **radars and radar related work** to the Chinese. So you can be sure who gets to see the stuff works first before the Russians do.

I would not be to sure of this analogy.
At present, I see China as a bit of a two-headed dragon.
It will side with anyone that views it as an influential power on political grounds (the Ukraine).
While it will not bite the hand that is contributing so greatly too feed its military modernization and growth (Russia).

Full credit to the PRC.
For the PRC has learned not to put all its reliance into one basket, when it comes to its state of the art military equipment, that it is rebuilding and modernizing its military.
By buying Ukraine military hardware, which is also used or produced by the Russian’s, the PRC has a much better and more powerful barging power on future supply and prices

Added to this is while the Russians are sabre rattling with the United States and NATO, China will be happy!
While the United States and its Coalition of Allies are so caught up with its obsession with the ‘War on Terrorism’, China is happy

No at this time, I think the PRC will play both side of the coin!
If anything, I think the PRC would be willing too be seen as a negotiator (after the French attempts were shot down, by Russia, which played France like a fool!) – Again to increase its prestige and want to be seen as a world power!

Regards
Pioneer

There is precedent for missile and warhead parts lying around in piles…Russia did use a lot of the missiles they got from the Ukraine to provide spares for the ones they had in service, particularly the SS-24s that were built in the Ukraine.

One problem, though. No nuclear warheads to arm those SS-18s. Russia removed all nuclear warheads from Ukraine(and all other Soviet satellite states) long time ago. This leads to another problem. During the height of the Cold War(1980’s), Russia had about 40,000 nuclear warheads. At least 3/4 of them were “disassembled” in the last 15 years or so, due to various disarmament treaties. If the geo-political dynamics turn for the worst for Russia, I wouldn’t be surprise if they start “re-assembling” those “disassembled” warheads.

This might come as a surprise but they’re not the only ones with a disassembled stockpile. :rolleyes: Lots of W-80s laying around just the right size for Tomahawks, ALCMs, JASSMs, you get the idea.

Missiles won’t be going in the Ukraine. Wouldn’t blame them if they reopened their own ICBM production facilities though. Would be freakin’ hilarious if they started cranking out SS-18s and aimed them at Russia.

One problem, though. No nuclear warheads to arm those SS-18s. Russia removed all nuclear warheads from Ukraine(and all other Soviet satellite states) long time ago. This leads to another problem. During the height of the Cold War(1980’s), Russia had about 40,000 nuclear warheads. At least 3/4 of them were “disassembled” in the last 15 years or so, due to various disarmament treaties. If the geo-political dynamics turn for the worst for Russia, I wouldn’t be surprise if they start “re-assembling” those “disassembled” warheads.

Doesn’t need to be. Consider Peacekeeper and when it was made.

US in 80s was far more advanced and richer than Soviet Union. Soviet Union was building stuff in 1950s era factories. and most of it has perished in 90s.
Ukraine is even poorer than Belarus on per capita basis. So i doubt any qualified people and investment for ICBM is left. Putin isnt stupid. He is not only purchased vast industrial machinery from West but has collect over 6.5 million of Russians from former republics.

http://www.spacedaily.com/reports/Russia_And_Ukraine_Joining_Forces_In_Space_Or_Going_Their_Separate_Ways_999.html
Russia And Ukraine Joining Forces In Space Or Going Their Separate Ways

It is interesting to note that more than 900 plants and enterprises, over 700 of them in Russia, contributed to the development of the Zenit rocket system, which is undoubtedly Yuzhnoye’s most distinctive achievement.

Its first-stage engine was developed under Glushko’s direction at the Energomash Research and Production Association in Khimki outside Moscow; its control system, at the Moscow Research and Production Center of Automatic Devices and Instrument Making under Nikolai Pilyugin, a member of the Soviet Academy of Sciences. The engine is still considered the world’s best in its class. The control system places spacecraft in preset orbits with pinpoint accuracy. (Glushko once joked that if a stick were fitted out with his engine and Pilyugin’s control system, it would reach the Moon). A ground-based launch system developed at the Moscow Design Bureau of Transport Engineering ensures that the Zenit can be prepared and launched fully automatically, in the unassisted mode. This feature, an unassisted launch, is the reason this environmentally clean vehicle was chosen for one of the largest international space projects at the turn of the century – Sea Launch.

When the Soviet Union collapsed, the Russian side, in addition to maintaining its traditional ties with the Ukrainian space industry, also sought to broaden them. Ukrainian firms remained full-fledged participants in the preparation and launching of Russian spacecraft, and bore full responsibility for the parts they installed. The Ukrainian side is interested in active cooperation no less than Russia. Zenit rockets manufactured by Yuzhmash have 72% of their components delivered from Russia. Moreover, Ukraine lacks its own space center, and practically all rockets and spaceware made in the country must be launched with Russian participation

Still, a measure of disunity between the two countries’ space industries could not be avoided. Sudden independence upset years of production cooperation between the plants, which found themselves on the opposite sides of the border. Experts believe that the curtailment and freezing of joint projects is costing the Ukrainian side tens of millions of dollars annually. There is now little if any demand for products made in Ukraine. There are also financial problems with government orders. In other words, the only past source of financing is gone.
It would be wrong, however, to say that the Ukrainian leadership has not tried to improve things. It drew up and implemented several national space programs. The optimal sharing of even meager funds has helped most of the industry survive. This came about thanks to the direct support given to the Ukrainian space industry by a former Ukrainian president, Leonid Kuchma, through personal arrangements with Vladimir Putin, including liberalization of customs rules for countertrade deliveries by space equipment manufacturers.

The issue, however, is not what Ukraine wants to get from cooperation with the Western powers, but what it can give them. And it has nothing to give: Ukraine, unlike China or India, lacks a full-fledged space industry, and the emergence of one in the next few years is unrealistic because there are just no resources for it. Ukraine is in a position to pursue a more or less credible space effort only in cooperation with Russia. Some progress has already been reported

So despite past 4 years of Orange revolution. Ukranian people and industry is firmly attached to Russia

http://english.people.com.cn/90001/90777/6257376.html
Ukraine to strengthen cooperation with Russia on space science research
+ – 11:14, September 07, 2007
Ukraine will strengthen cooperation with Russia on space science research projects, Mikola Mitrahof, head of Ukraine’s National Space Agency information center, said Thursday.

The two countries reached agreements on boosting space science cooperation on the sidelines of Ukraine’s and Russia’s economic cooperation committee meeting Wednesday and Thursday in the Crimean Republic, south of Ukraine, Mitrahof said

so do u think it is still advance as 2008 model year ICBM. and still those people are alived.

Doesn’t need to be. Consider Peacekeeper and when it was made.

That speculation is at least backed up by factual evidence of ongoing programs demonstrating a continued ballistic missile industry presence in the Ukraine. All you have done is provide an opinion that Ukraine cannot exist without Russia without proving your point.

Factual evidence comes from Actual tests. How many ICBM tests have been done in last 10 years in UKraine? Ukraine is now behind India/Iran in this field.
Russians have clearly said Buran shuttle cannot be created again as infrastructure and people went way as that is well funded space program.

From various reports and other forums, I have learned that many key engineers are leaving the country after finding better paying jobs in Russia.

One example is a number of engineers from Motor-sich Ukraine have left (with their families) to work in the same field in Russia.

I don’t know if such a brain drain has already affected their missile designing and building capability.

On a lighter note: Brain drain out of Ukraine 😎

That speculation is at least backed up by factual evidence of ongoing programs demonstrating a continued ballistic missile industry presence in the Ukraine. All you have done is provide an opinion that Ukraine cannot exist without Russia without proving your point.