US closely watching for signs of Chinese military activity ahead of Taiwan elections: official
07/03/2004 at 08:12:32
Date line: WASHINGTON
The United States is closely watching for signs of Chinese military activity ahead of Taiwan’s March 20 presidential elections amid growing concerns here over Beijing’s increased capacity to take pre-emptive military action with little warning.
China now has roughly 500 ballistic missiles within range of Taiwan and is adding more at a rate of about 75 a year, a US official said, speaking on condition of anonymity.
It also has acquired Russian fighter aircraft, warships and other systems over the past five years in order to be able to take pre-emptive military action against Taiwan swiftly enough to present Washington with a fait accompli, he said.
The official said that so far “nothing noteworthy” has been detected in terms of Chinese military movements ahead of the elections.
“We’re watching the situation very closely for possible PRC (Peoples Republic of China) military action,” the official told AFP. “As always our force structure in the region is ready to respond to any possible contingency that could come up.”
The elections are a potential flashpoint because Beijing fears the re-election of President Chen Shui-bian will push the island, which it regards as an integral part of China, further down a path of independence.
Chen, lagging in the polls behind opposition Kuomintang chairman Lien Chan, has angered Beijing by calling an election day referendum on whether to buy missiles to offset Beijing’s missile buildup and whether to hold peace talks with the mainland.
The referendum has cast a spotlight on the looming Chinese military buildup.
US officials say it’s to reduce the cost of taking pre-emptive military action against Taiwan, in part by giving less time for the United States to respond.
“Their objective is to develop the whole range of options to use against Taiwan sooner rather than later — sooner (is) roughly by the 2006-2007 timeframe,” the official said.
China’s preferred option is the limited use of force to achieve limited political objectives, such as to force Taiwan to pull back from a course of action, he said.
But its options include computer network attacks, missile attacks, a blockade of Taiwanese ports, an air campaign like NATO’s war against Yugoslavia, or outright invasion.
“As far as costs, the PRC does have the ability to occupy Taiwan today if they are willing to accept almost certain high costs, and barring third party intervention,” he said.
But he said there was “high confidence” China would emerge the loser if the United States became involved.
A US response would be shaped by a host of factors, such as whether the use of force was provoked, whether Washington was faced with a fait accompli, and what else was happening in the world at the time.
So whatever the outcome of the Taiwan elections, US officials say Taipei needs to invest in a panoply of capabilities to offset China’s might:
— spy satellites and electronic eavesdropping aircraft to increase early warning of a Chinese attack;
— missile defenses, ranging from Patriot-3 missile defenses it is currently budgeting for, to more advanced sea-based Aegis-type missile defenses that broad cover over a broader area;
–anti submarine warfare systems;
–computerized networks that would link command centers and give commanders a common picture of their operations.
“There are some in Taiwan who question why they should be investing in their own defense when they believe the United States is going to intervene and help us anyway. This is a dangerous and flawed assumption,” the official said.
“The United States is certainly very supportive of Taiwan, but … it is incumbent upon Taiwan to defend themselves at a minium for a certain period of time just simply to give the United States time to make a decision on how to respond.”
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China boosts military spending to build high-tech weapons
06/03/2004 at 02:28:10
Date line: BEIJING
China Saturday boosted its 2004 military spending by 11.6 percent over last year as it stepped up efforts to modernize and outfit its military with high-tech weaponry.
“Expenditures for national defense will rise by 21.83 billion yuanbillion dollars), 11.6 percent more than last year in order to improve the defensive combat readiness of the armed forces under high-tech conditions,” Finance Minister Jin Renqing told a session of the National People’s Congress.
The increase marked a return to double-digit growth in defense spending after an annual increase last year of 9.6 percent.
It was not immediately clear if the increase would be on top of what was actually spent on defense in 2003, or on the 2003 budgeted figure of 185.3 billion yuan (22.37 billion dollars).
China’s stated defense spending grew by 17.6 percent 2002 and 17.7 percent in 2001.
Despite all the accounting pronouncements, China’s real military spending remains shrouded in secrecy, with Western analysts routinely estimating a real military budget ranging from between two and three times the stated figure.
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March 7, 2004 at 4:43 pm