USAF facing a capability cliff by 2030?

I think the next 20 years are going to be very interesting for the US Air Force and I think by 2030 it will be a much weaker force then it is now.

The imain reason is the number of airframes that will need replacing.

This isn’t just tactical fighters (F-15, F-16, A-10), but bombers (B-1), tankers (KC-135 and KC-10), AWACS (E-3), tactical (C-130H), reconaissance (U-2), trainers (T-38) and CSAR/utility helos (HH-60, UH-1). JSTARs aircraft might also need replacing given extensive utilisation.

Thats a lot of aircraft – in fact well over 2,200.

A number of replacement programs have been cancelled (E-10, or delayed numerous times (KC-X) thus leading to current situation.

This causes a number of budget problems for USAF even in good economic times:

1. Older aircraft are more maintenance intensive, thus more costly to operate

2. Delays to replacement programs means older aircraft need to be upgraded to maintain efficiency.

3. Replacements are often costly and seldom replaced 1:1.

4. Older aircraft often have poorer availability.

5. In times of extreme economic scarcity, all problems above are exacerbated and cutbacks/delays incurred. This in turn creates a vicious circle whereby older aircraft are utilised thus increasing maintenance cost and adding to the “shopping list” of new aircraft that are needed.

So this is where the US faces a capability cliff

Given absolute massive amount of investment needed into renewing fleets, 1:1 replacement won’t be possible. In fact some replacements won’t happen at all and that particular capability will simply be abandoned.