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  • mack8

What if: Iran-Iraq- peace in 1982, AF evolution

As it is known, after the initial iraqi gains in this war (1980-1988), they were stopped and slowly pushed back from iranian territory, reaching the old border by May 1982. At his point Saddam offered peace, but the hardline mullahs (aka morons) decided to continue the war to occupy Iraq basically, inspite of (obviously correct) advice not to do so. Hence the subsequent carnage, huge human and material losses on both sides- but more so Iran, they have gained nothing and wrecked their country and had 1 million killed in the process.

But let’s say the less extremist mullahs prevail, and they agree to the cessation of hostilities in June 1982. What will happen with IRIAF and IrAF afterwards? It appears the soviets were trying to get Iran on their side, would there be significant soviet aircraft and other weapons purchased from say 1983 until 1991 at least, maybe well after (Su-27/30 and MiG-31 even in the nineties-perhaps the New Russia would have really needed those money and needed to keep and important ally- by then- and not bow to US pressure this time)? They had 250 F-4, F-14 and F-5s left in 1982, but still under the embargo, perhaps significant numbers of Su-22M-4, MiG-23ML/MLD, MiG-25R/PD, Su-25, MiG-29 and Su-24MK (maybe even chinese J-7s) would be aquired to mostly replace them? Would Iraq turn more toward the west (or rather be supported by), more in the GCC camp, getting for instance apart from over 100 Mirage F1EQs, 50 Mirage-2000s, US aircraft like F-20 or F-16s, maybe british Hawk trainers/light attackers, to obviously “deter” Iran, in addition to the soviet aircraft they had left (closer to 200 imo, maybe even more, rather than the 100 quoted in some sources), plus again maybe some J-7s from China too?

How about other issues, like do they both engage in a race to become nuclear, can they before 1990? Any influence of the Afghanistan war? (apparently the iranians were supporting the mujahadeen). How about Israel? Or in the 1991 Gulf War Iraq will be replaced with Iran (say to stop their nuclear program- extremely unlikely unless they invade someone for a cassus belli imo), how is that going to pan out? If we have BOTH of them nuclear will we also have KSA nuclear too, and even Egypt? How would the ME and the airforces of these two countries will look in the nineties and up to today?

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