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What-If: NATO-WP Air War in Central Europe in 1987

I have spent some time to find in Internet various sources describing NATO and Warsaw Pact Air Forces OdeB in the 1980s. Well, I have already finished this job and I have also compiled and merged informations from many data sources taken together. To simplifing analysis I decided to focus on NATO/WP air strength in Cental Europe because this theatre of military operations would be critical for NATO-WP war’s outcome. Below I show my aggregate numbers of both sides military aircraft in this area.

WARSAW PACT OdeB on Western Theatre of Military Operations in 1987. (it comprises all fixed-wing military platforms based in East Germany, Czechoslovakia, Poland and USSR’s Baltic, Belarussian, Carpathian Military Disctrics)

1. FIGHTER INTERCEPTORS: 2276

– 862 MiG-21 Fishbed-J/K/L/N
– 1058 MiG-23 Flogger-B/C/K
– 65 MiG-25 Foxbat-E
– 36 Su-15 Flagoon
– 165 MiG-29 Fulcrum-A
– 45 Su-27 Flanker-A
– 45 MiG-31 Foxhound-A

2. FIGHTER-GROUND ATTACK: 1232

– 80 MiG-17 Fresco-C
– 75 MiG-21 Fishbed-D/F/J
– 424 MiG-27 Flogger-B/D/J
– 563 Su-7/17/20/22 Fitter-A/C/D/H
– 90 Su-25 Froogfoot-A

3. BOMBERS: 900

– 455 Su-24 Fencer-A/C/D
– 156 Tu-16 Bagder-C/G
– 107 Tu-22 Blinder-A/B
– 182 Tu-22M Backfire-B/C

4. AUXILIARY PLANES (Recce/ECM/tankers): 609

– 81 MiG-21 Fishbed-H
– 104 Yak-28 Brewer-D
– 83 MiG-25 Foxbat-B/D
– 80 Su-17 Fitter-H/K
– 66 Su-24 Fencer-E/F
– 96 Tu-16 Bagder-D/F/J/K
– 47 Tu-22 Blinder-C/E
– 12 Tu-22M Backfire-D

GRAND TOTAL: 5017 military aircrafts

NATO OdeB in Central Region, 1987 (including fixed-wing military platforms based in FRG, Denmark, Netherlands, Belgium, USAFE planes in UK and part of French planes in FRG and France commited to strenghten Central Region in the event of war as well)

1. FIGHTER-INTERCEPTORS: 467

– 68 F-5 E/F “Tiger II”
– 96 F-15 C/D “Eagle”
– 12 Panavia “Tornado” ADV
– 145 Dassault “Mirage” F-1
– 38 Dassault “Mirage” 2000
– 12 BAe “Lightening”
– 16 Saab 35 “Draken”
– 80 F-104G “Starfighter”

2. MULTIROLE FIGHTER-GROUND ATTACK: 1134

– 216 F-4 E/F “Phantom II” E/F/G
– 356 F-16 “Falcon” A/B
– 36 CF-18 “Hornet” A/B
– 72 SEPECAT “Jaguar” A/E
– 108 A-10A “Thunderbolt”
– 175 Dornier “Alphajet”
– 31 BAe “Harrier” GR.3
– 60 Dassault “Mirage” IIIE
– 80 Dassault “Mirage-5”

3. BOMBERS: 351

– 211 Panavia “Tornado” IDS
– 140 F-111 “Aardvark” E/F

4. AUXILIARY PLANES: Recce/ECM versions of western planes included above.

GRAND TOTAL: 1952 military aircratfs

Main sources: IISS “The Military Balance 1987-1988” London 1987, The Analytic Science Corporation “Preliminary ATTU Unclassified Conventional Weapon Systems Data Base” Fall 1987, “Between Rhine and Elbe: France in teh Conventional Defense of Central Europe” Comparative Strategy 1987, various articles from “Military Review” and declassified National Intelligence Estimates (NIEs) from the 1980s.

Well, basic question is: who could probably gain air superiority over Central Europe in the event of NATO-WP war???

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