What strength will the Indian fighter force fall to in coming years?

It’s worth bearing in mind the new aircraft coming in, like the Rafale, are not like-for-like or one-for-one replacements, but instead are qualitatively better as MadRat says, as they are multi-role.

For example, in a strike mission, the Rafales are self-escorting and can more than look after themselves unlike, say the Jaguars…..they can also be used in other roles such as air-to-ground (not just at stand-off ranges)….or even as part of the nuclear triad like the Mirage-2000s.

Older aircraft being replaced, say like MiG-21s, simply do not have that versatile capability. Even if squadron numbers are kept the same as now (as older aircraft retire), their replacements are so much more potent.

I’m not up to date with the latest PAK FA/FGFA developments and a quick search doesn’t come up with any concrete info — when are the IAF’s FGFA’s currently projected to enter service (IOC)? Or, putting it another way, how many FGFAs are the IAF expected to have by 2025, given the topic of this thread?

Thanks.

With active missiles and guided munitions, qualitative improvement is dramatically improved

Which is basicly what is happening all across the globe.

With active missiles and guided munitions, qualitative improvement is dramatically improved

India assembles SU30 and Jaguar, produces LCA on its own and have just ordered Rafale. How can they not have the required number of fighter jets? That’s like starving while inside a McDonalds!

same reason i’m starving inside a McDonalds, i will have none of it no matter how much i starve

India assembles SU30 and Jaguar, produces LCA on its own and have just ordered Rafale. How can they not have the required number of fighter jets? That’s like starving while inside a McDonalds!

Isn’t it a question of the rate at which fighters are retired and new fighters are delivered? If a lot of fighters are retired towards the end of the decade but replacements are not delivered until the next decade, squadron numbers will fall before the end of the decade, won’t they?

India assembles SU30 and Jaguar, produces LCA on its own and have just ordered Rafale. How can they not have the required number of fighter jets? That’s like starving while inside a McDonalds!

Pak Fa eventually. Then they will have instant air superiority

That’s my account of the force structure in 2022. That’s why the MiG-27 has been excluded and the Rafale & Tejas included.

The Bisons were originally scheduled to be retired by 2022, but that’s extendable to 2025. I’m guessing 2 sqs. will persist past 2022 and be replaced by the Tejas Mk1A by 2024. Unless the MoD seals a deal for a new Western type, in which case they might be retired by 2022-23.

As to the last point, I wouldn’t take Wikipedia figures at face value. The MiG-21 figures for one seem like total rubbish, or perhaps just outdated. The MiG-27UPGs constitute 4 sqds, maybe less (I’m not sure about the retirement schedule).

There are in all 3 squadrons of MiG-27MLs and about half a squadron’s worth with TACDE and 2 squadrons of the MiG-27UPG, plus 5 squadrons of the MiG-21M/MF that will be retired. Another 2 squadrons of MiG-21Bis as well. And then another 6 MiG-21 Bison squadrons that will need to be replaced.

So in all 5.5 MiG-27s + 5 MiG-21M/MF + 2 MiG-21Bis + 6 MiG-21 Bison squadrons = 18.5 squadrons will be retired in a phased manner by 2025.

And the orbat by 2025 will look like this, with some rounding off for possible attrition:

14 Su-30MKI squadrons – ~270 Su-30MKIs
3 Mirage-2000I squadrons – ~50 Mirage-2000Is
3 MiG-29UPG squadrons – ~60 MiG-29UPGs
6 Jaguar squadrons – ~120 Jaguars
2 Tejas Mk1 squadrons – 40 Tejas Mk1s
4 Tejas Mk1A squadrons (if deliveries start in 2019 @16 per year) – 83 Tejas Mk1As
2 Rafale squadrons – 36 Rafales

So a total of about 33 squadrons

There were only 38 MiG-27s upgraded to the UPG standard. So just 2 squadrons and not 4.

Overall, the IAF didn’t see any real worth in keeping this type going past 2020, even though the UPG upgrade was quite a leap for the type, considering how obsolescent the non-upgraded MiG-27 was.

Here’s an article on the MiG-27UPG upgrade and what it involved as well as the improvements seen after the upgrade

Your figures do not mention MiG-27. Have these been retired already? Additionally, if ~240 x MiG-21 are going to be retired between now and 2022, that’s ~12 squadrons rather than 3 or 4 isn’t it? According to Wiki IAF has 34 squadrons of fighters including 245 x MiG-21 and 87 x MiG-27. I don’t understand how IAF will have 30 fighter squadrons in 2022 if 16 of the current 34 are retiring in the next 5 years and replacements are 2 x Tejas squadrons and 2 x Rafale squadrons and 2/3 x Su30MKI squadrons. To me 34-16+6/7 does not make 30. What have I got wrong?

That’s my account of the force structure in 2022. That’s why the MiG-27 has been excluded and the Rafale & Tejas included.

The Bisons were originally scheduled to be retired by 2022, but that’s extendable to 2025. I’m guessing 2 sqs. will persist past 2022 and be replaced by the Tejas Mk1A by 2024. Unless the MoD seals a deal for a new Western type, in which case they might be retired by 2022-23.

As to the last point, I wouldn’t take Wikipedia figures at face value. The MiG-21 figures for one seem like total rubbish, or perhaps just outdated. The MiG-27UPGs constitute 4 sqds, maybe less (I’m not sure about the retirement schedule).

You may want to check your figures again. This is the sq strength of the IAF based on known/confirmed orders.

Su-30 x 14 sq.
Jaguar x 6 sq.
Mirage x 3 sq.
MiG-29 x 3 sq.
Rafale x 2 sq.
Tejas x 2 sq.
________________
Total = 30 sq.

Plus MiG-21 Bison x 3-4 sq. (to be replaced by Tejas Mk1A.)

So the IAF’s strength in 2022 should be a minimum of 32 squadrons.

This is NOT counting whatever comes out of the project for a single engined western fighter. Also, doesn’t count any follow-on orders for the Su-30MKI (currently scheduled to run till 2019). By most accounts, the sq. strength in 2022 will most likely be higher than the current 34 squadrons.

Your figures do not mention MiG-27. Have these been retired already? Additionally, if ~240 x MiG-21 are going to be retired between now and 2022, that’s ~12 squadrons rather than 3 or 4 isn’t it? According to Wiki IAF has 34 squadrons of fighters including 245 x MiG-21 and 87 x MiG-27. I don’t understand how IAF will have 30 fighter squadrons in 2022 if 16 of the current 34 are retiring in the next 5 years and replacements are 2 x Tejas squadrons and 2 x Rafale squadrons and 2/3 x Su30MKI squadrons. To me 34-16+6/7 does not make 30. What have I got wrong?

Nearing the end of 2016, it is reported that IAF has 34 fighter squadrons and that a large number of fighters are due to be retired within the next 5 years (16 squadrons), Without replacements, squadron strength would thus fall to 18 squadrons, about half today’s strength.

What replacements are planned for delivery in the next 5 years?
.
.
.
So, with 34 active squadrons late 2016, 16 scheduled for retirement and 6-7 to be delivered up to 2022, IAF squadron strength is set to drop to 24/25 squadrons by 2022 unless more aircraft are ordered/delivered. By all accounts that number of fighter squadrons would be insufficient for IAF to maintain a minimum capability.

You may want to check your figures again. This is the sq strength of the IAF based on known/confirmed orders.

Su-30 x 14 sq.
Jaguar x 6 sq.
Mirage x 3 sq.
MiG-29 x 3 sq.
Rafale x 2 sq.
Tejas x 2 sq.
________________
Total = 30 sq.

Plus MiG-21 Bison x 3-4 sq. (to be replaced by Tejas Mk1A.)

So the IAF’s strength in 2022 should be a minimum of 32 squadrons.

This is NOT counting whatever comes out of the project for a single engined western fighter. Also, doesn’t count any follow-on orders for the Su-30MKI (currently scheduled to run till 2019). By most accounts, the sq. strength in 2022 will most likely be higher than the current 34 squadrons.

media reports are usually exaggerated.
i dont believe iaf will fall to 18 squadrons within five years.

mig21 may be retired in that timeframe, as well as mig27 but nothing else. Jaguars will serve another 10 or so years, m2000 and mig29will serve another 15 or so years after the deep modernization they’ve received.

at the same time, 1-2 squadrons worth of rafale will come, several squadrons worth of tejas, as well as a few squadrons worth of su30.