What to do with North Korea

RE: What to do with North Korea

[updated:LAST EDITED ON 03-01-03 AT 11:09 PM (GMT)]Vortex:

>Interestingly that some people would bring in China. I
>personally believe that even though China may not want a
>Nuclear neighbor, but that sure beats a reunified
>pro-Western, democratic (don’t have to be pro-US!) Korea.

form this i have to draw the conclusion that u either didnt put alot of thought into politics or dont know much abt the political situation in the area.

ppl bring in china because without china’s help and support, it would be a hell of alot more difficult to smooth and sort things out over there. like it or not, the key to diffusing this situation lies in beijing’s hands.

and another thing, china probably has better relation with SK then NK. dont assume that countries with the same/similar political systems automatically become best friends, and countries with different systems automatically hate each others guts.

>Remind you that US stopped Korea and Taiwan producing nukes
>due to not wanting a proliferated region. China may want
>the same, but why isn’t the desire more intense and serious?
> Because they have their own interests too and
>understandably so…this wouldn’t be the case and objections
>would be shooting out like crazy from the PRC if it is the
>S.Koreans that are developing the nukes.

so far america has mainly talked to ppl, and demanded things from others. this has mostly worked so far because the US has ‘muscle’, but it has also left the US with a poor international image, and has often led to conflicts.

it must be uplifting for americans to hear all the saber rattling and retoric that is coming out of washington abt NK, im sure it would work the same charm on the chinese ppl if beijing did the same. but the point is, IT DOESNT HELP!

by talking to the N.koreans in private, and pressuring them under the table, beijing can get kim to back down without loosing too much face. it might not be as ‘fulfilling’ for us TV viewers, but the important thing is it gets the job done.

if america wants to continue to thrive, then they must also learn the art of purswation, while u still have some friends left in the world, or the feeling of isolation will only intensify in the future.

RE: What to do with North Korea

“That’s fundamental mistake number 1 Garry. The N.Koreans specifically want to talk with the US, it’s not the US only want itself to deal with the N.Koreans. They (N.K) are not stupid and they don’t buy into what something was said versus “deeds”. “

I personally think the US are in South Korea simply because it is the last frontline of the cold war. If there was a negotiated peace I would expect the US to initially have troops there to monitor the changeover of power, but for these to be withdrawn eventaully and the region to be “forgotten” by the US. In such a case the burden of dragging the North’s economy out of the toilet would be left up to the South, much the same way that West Germany footed the bill to rehabilitate the East german economy. I am sure the Americans would like to station troops in Korea post reunification to have a toe hold nice and close to China, but I doubt North Korea will agree nor will China agree to that.
In such a case there is no need to suck up to the Yanks or even talk to them except if they think they might get concessions from the South via pressure from the US that they wouldn’t be able to get directly. This seems unlikely to me.
Most of the news reports I have seen recently suggest to me the North would rather talk to the south, common sense tells me that discussions without a mediator stop when bumps are hit and no one is there to refloat the ship so to speak. A biased mediator (note my suggestions did not include Russia or China, for the same reasons they did not include the US) is worse than no mediator…

“(the only reason you can’t think this way is your biased antagonistic view of the US from your OWN perspective…but again, you’re no Korean people, and probably didn’t even know one close enough to discuss what’s going on except with your “western” point of view). Why? They know only the US is as credible and as powerful and yes as wealthy enough to ensure their future. “

Hahahahahaha… my biased western perspective makes me a bad judge in this case, yet a country that fought on one side in the conflict involved and has 37,000 troops still stationed in one of the countries and is just as western as I am makes a good judge…. hahahahahahahaha

“Your bring in others won’t work because the truth is, it has no muscle behind it. “

American diplomacy. Why does the mediator need muscle? How would the mediator use this muscle? Sign this treaty or we’ll bomb you!!!!!
Muscle has not shown results in the 40 odd years of truce… when is it going to work?

“Interestingly that some people would bring in China. “

Your excellent knowledge of the Korean war serves you well. When UN troops had pushed through North Korea and were within sight of the Chinese border it was masses of Chinese troops that push the UN forces back to the line that currently divides North and South Korea today. China is just as much a party to this as the US is.

“Remind you that US stopped Korea and Taiwan producing nukes due to not wanting a proliferated region. “

The US would stop any country from having dangerous toys that could hurt it. No bully likes rivals or people who can stand up for themselves.

“China may want the same, but why isn’t the desire more intense and serious? “

Perhaps less hipocritical and less interventionist than the US.

“…this wouldn’t be the case and objections would be shooting out like crazy from the PRC if it is the S.Koreans that are developing the nukes.”

Compared to the Taiwanese getting nukes the objections would be minimal.

RE: What to do with North Korea

That’s fundamental mistake number 1 Garry. The N.Koreans specifically want to talk with the US, it’s not the US only want itself to deal with the N.Koreans. They (N.K) are not stupid and they don’t buy into what something was said versus “deeds”. Please give them more credit than that. (the only reason you can’t think this way is your biased antagonistic view of the US from your OWN perspective…but again, you’re no Korean people, and probably didn’t even know one close enough to discuss what’s going on except with your “western” point of view). Why? They know only the US is as credible and as powerful and yes as wealthy enough to ensure their future. Remember, right now N.K. keeps wanting to have a dialogue with the US and with nobody else. Your bring in others won’t work because the truth is, it has no muscle behind it. Now why is the non-aggression treaty so important? Because that’s a guarentee from the US that irregardless, the future of the North won’t be jeopardize unless it conforms with the results that the North’s leaders wants (even if that means North wants the reunification). Remember the historical context of the Koreans, what’s at stake is not now but their perceived future. Why now? Because it’s the best time (due to Iraq) to cause a crisis. Interestingly that some people would bring in China. I personally believe that even though China may not want a Nuclear neighbor, but that sure beats a reunified pro-Western, democratic (don’t have to be pro-US!) Korea. Remind you that US stopped Korea and Taiwan producing nukes due to not wanting a proliferated region. China may want the same, but why isn’t the desire more intense and serious? Because they have their own interests too and understandably so…this wouldn’t be the case and objections would be shooting out like crazy from the PRC if it is the S.Koreans that are developing the nukes.

RE: What to do with North Korea

“Instead of all this B.S. Garry, talk with more substance on what’s actually going on. “

I am talking about what is going on.

The US has always stated that the two Koreas are still at war and that the North is just waiting to overwhelm the south and that is why 37,000 US soldiers are there to hold the last front line of the cold war.

Certainly the NK government wants to hold onto power. Why should the NK government be any different from any other in the world.

“If you are the leaders of N.K., you don’t want to loose what you have now because that’s how you’re educated to believe that YOU are the true people working for the nation and future of Korea. “

Such insight Vortex… now explain why the North Koreans should negotiate with the country that stated it was part of an axis of evil.
Would you like a mediator that compared the US to Nazi Germany to help you solve a problem?
I personally think better headway would be made of the “regional” powers just left and South Korea and North Korea had talks alone… or had some country with no history in the region like Switzerland or Austria mediated the process.

RE: What to do with North Korea

The debate is getting really interesting and with valuable comments. Probably what they want is a bit of love and affection and a place in this world. It´s probably a naive oppinion, but if they really want to join the world, and they don´t know how to do it?. The Koreans are having a fateful history, confronted in a civil war and maintained isolated because for years they have been the world powers chess board. Germans have succedded it, and do you think the Koreans will be able to do it?. I don´t think the blockage won´t do anything to improve the situation, since they don´t have much trade volumen to be affected by that.

RE: What to do with North Korea

Still some interesting points that Garry has. There won’t be any conventional war push south from NK because, while they might do some damage, it would be the end of that regime. Period. The leaders of NK like their job. Doing something conventional would put them out of a job. Also their military isn’t even being feed well so I don’t know how combat effective all the units would be in an offensive mode (not talking defensive).
Part of it I can understand with what NK is doing now. They are just saying; “You don’t suggest or tell us how to do our job”.
They still have some explaining to do, not only to Japan and South Korea but to China who has already said they would prefer a nuke free Korea. The real thing that sucks now is that it gets mightly cold there this time of year.

RE: What to do with North Korea

while you’re at it Garry, why not every country who failed get some nukes too…that’ll show them some respect. The reality is that the leadership of NK sees that if the status quo continues, the question of losing power is when not if. There’s already tons of reports of the SK government and for that matter, the US planing long term plans of reunifying the Koreans but keeping the S.K. government as the the rulers. Instead of all this B.S. Garry, talk with more substance on what’s actually going on. If you are the leaders of N.K., you don’t want to loose what you have now because that’s how you’re educated to believe that YOU are the true people working for the nation and future of Korea. This mentality goes way back during the Japanese colonialism. Same can not be generally spoken of southern Koreans.

RE: What to do with North Korea

Still waiting for a sensible reply…

Headline:
Huge overwhelming force of commie asians do not invade neighbouring countries in search of resources to feed starving population!

Every time the Aussies formulate their defence needs it always includes the “threat from the North” where overpopulated under resourced countries will seek to take from Australians what is rightfully theirs. From the US defence budgets we see that the North Koreans are striving for a missile capability to strike the US… the American measures of isolation and sanction are self defencive.

How do we combat this evil communist state?

Lets look at history.

Former Soviet Union: Financially crushed through isolation and support of its enemies no matter who they were. Result Nuclear weapons mounted on the back of trucks every bit as capable as US silo based weapons in a country now largely influenced by organised crime.

Cuba: Isolated and slowly financially drained. Nice weather but I wouldn’t want to live there, though not because they wouldn’t let me vote.

China: Ignored, Sanctioned, Isolated, then traded with on a reasonably large scale and treated as less of an enemy. Result still commie, but opening up and growing to become healthier and a bit more normal in it s foreign relations.

Do you think bullying North Korea will work?

How many of you take advice from your sworn enemies?

Would you listen to advice from a friend or an enemy?

So far North Korea has been abandoned by its former friends and is looking after its own interests.
Its only option to get respect now is to get nuclear weapons.
It is not getting them to use them… it is getting them to get the respect that comes with having them… it is a shame the the US and international community has so little respect for soverignty and for other systems of government that it is forced to take such drastic action.

RE: What to do with North Korea

Gollem does have something who looks after him, North Korea doesn`t. And I`m still waiting to find the Smeagol in North-Korea.

RE: What to do with North Korea

“program the Bush-administration has initiated to isolate N-Korea both politically and economically”

Hmmm, politically and economically isolate North Korea. Yes that is a brand new policy that has never been tried before. Ask Castro. And boy does it work a treat. The isolation and blockading of Japan just before WWII was incredibly successful… It has also driven out Castro from Cuba.

Fundamentally it is obvious… corner a wild and unpredictible animal and it will become a soft cuddly compliant little kitten. No cornered animal would strike out irrationally… like saddam launching scuds at Israel… and even that wasn’t so irrational was it.

But no, the government in North Korea has watched its citizens die before and not hinted at wanting to give up power to save them, why should it start doing so now… especially as it has a nuclear program in full swing now… nuclear armed countries get different treatment from the international community… that will be their salvation…. starting to sound like gollum yet?

RE: What to do with North Korea

[updated:LAST EDITED ON 29-12-02 AT 10:56 PM (GMT)]The idea of planning a war scares me, Keltic. It`s like Bush actually has a war-agenda. You can`t plan war like a holiday, can you? OK, we don`t have the means to fight today, we`ll have to wait untill next year. It makes me afraid. I don`t know wheter it would be better to keep close ties with the United States in the future. Yes, they will probably remain the one and only military superpower, but at what price? A very strange feeling.

RE: What to do with North Korea

what ever happened to two major wars and a peacekeeping opp a thte same time }> 😀 }> 😀 }>

rabie :9

RE: What to do with North Korea

Well Geeforce, of course Rumsfeld won´t admit in public that two conflicts at the same time would be a serious problem. No warrior shows fear or hesitation. Of course the US can mantein two wars, but it´s not easy, not in terms of losses, public oppinion, economic costs and so on. And the North Koreans know that, and that´s why they have choosen this moment for their usual blackmail.

RE: What to do with North Korea

What about the new `tailored containment` (http://europe.cnn.com/2002/WORLD/asiapcf/east/12/28/nkorea.un.expulsion…) program the Bush-administration has initiated to isolate N-Korea both politically and economically. Now suddenly, the UN seems to be a thrustworthy ally for the US, but when it comes to Iraq, they say they will go to war anyway. Is it perhaps because – although the pentagon-officials won`t admit this – the US is not able to go to war at two different regions in the world? Rumsfeld does not like to hear this, but at least some high rank officials in the DoD agree with this statement.

RE: What to do with North Korea

[updated:LAST EDITED ON 29-12-02 AT 04:46 AM (GMT)]”It´s clear that NKorea is able to devast Seoul in a couple of minutes why his leader is crazy and bizarre enough to do it. “

So many people with such short memories.

Those millions of North Koreans will overwhelm the South…

I believe the soldiers coming from the north that overwhelmed last time were chinese. They won’t be coming this time.
North Korea has a total population of 22.2 million.
South Korea has a total population of 48.3 million.
Who exactly will be overwhelming who with numbers?

GDP comparisons are $865 billion compared to $21.8 billion… can you guess which way?

But hang on the North spend more on defence than the South… the north spends 31.3% on defence, while the south spends 2.8%.
Of course the actual figures are North spends $5.1 billion a year, while the South spends $12.8 billion… more than double!

If they went to war now the South could field about 14,194,960 men aged between 15 and 49. The North could manage 6,032,376 in the same age group. Those considered fit for service would be 8,990,488 for the South and 3,619,535 for the North.
Add about 40,000 American troops in place plus their equipment which is not included in the defence expenditures and the situation is very unbalanced… but not in the direction we are led to believe…
Bomber gap, missile gap, now North Korea is a threat to South Korea.
Don’t you love politics?

(Note figures are 2002 and from the American CIA (www.cia.gov)… under libraries on the lower left of the screen click on the CIA world factbook link.)

RE: What to do with North Korea

You might be true Plawolf, that they only want “chocolate” but I still have my doubts about their real intentions. Think that having internal cohesionm despite their adoctrination technics can´t last forever specially after being aware that they are in a absolute terrible situation. I am not sure if the regime is cornered and sees no way out or simply is a blackmail to the west. If the first scenario is the real one, I see the situation much concerning as what happens in Iraq.

RE: What to do with North Korea

[updated:LAST EDITED ON 28-12-02 AT 05:48 PM (GMT)]IMHO leave be – let the koreans sort it out

rabie :9

RE: What to do with North Korea

well said Plawolf.

RE: What to do with North Korea

NK is different from iraq in a number of ways. the current administration would argue that the N korreans are willing to give up their weapons programs as they did in the past, and all this is a way of trying to get attention or ‘chocoletes’ from washington. whereas saddam views his nukes as vital to his servival and would not give them up without a fight.

critics may well list reasons such as: NK has nukes, so the costs of bringing down kim-zhong-il is far too high to bare; NK has no oil, so its not ‘economical’ to pick a fight with them as there is nothing to be gained; the koreans themselves dont want a war etc.

the simple fact is NK is a massive armed camp, with weapons that are obsalete but still capable enough to inflict unacceptably high losses on both us and SK forces before it is brought down. the us administration cant win in korea and also win the next election as well.

another important point is that the NKoreans and SKoreans are all the same ppl, and there has been great accomplishments in terms of political dialog and good will, and there is a good chance that the current situation will resolve itself in time, peacefully, so there is no need to ‘speed up’ this process at the cost of millions on lives.

lastly, kim may be crual and/or crasy, but he’s not stupid, and will not start a major conflict that will bring down his raigeme if he has another choice. as long as the us dont force him into a corner and gives kim a chance to back down, he will, so there is little chance of a major conflict in the region if the us does start it.

although the same can be said for saddam and his raigeme, the us has chosen to target iraq, which does lead ppl to feel that the us only picks a fight with countries that are weak. it may well be that the us has genuinly ‘acceptable’ reasons to choose iraq over NK, but they sure as hell arent letting the rest of the world know abt it.

from all this, i cant help but feel that the us either doesnt care abt its image aboard, or is terrible at self promotion.

RE: What to do with North Korea

Its a communist country you cant ignore them….blackmail….. only till some extent.