Why 5th gen won't be as successful as previous gen in terms of market saturation

Was thinking about the sales prospects of 5th generation fighters and when you think about it, Fifth Generation fighters will probably never be as successful as previous generation aircraft.

Global factors affecting lower sales potential of 5th generation jets

1. No Cold War – reduced requirements for aircraft for European and North American airforces. Has not been matched by growth in other areas.

2. Lower airframe acquisitions by key partners means less aircraft available for transfer to second hand market.

3. Greater cost of 5th gen over previous generations.

4. Fall of Cold War saw large numbers of second hand 4th generation fighters available for transfer to second hand market e.g. F-16, MiG-29 and Su-27.

5. Loss of aircraft subsidised by major powers (especially MiG-21 and F-5).

6. Lower conventional threat levels and rise in insurgency warfare.

7. Longer life spans also mean less jets for transfer to second hand market.

8. Greater complexity of 5th generation.

North America
– Given dominance of US, of course fifth generation will become staple aircraft here. But never in same numbers as fourth generation.

– Canada – will buy F-35 IMO.

Latin America – no market for fifth generation
– In 2013 most common fighter type is 3rd generation F-5 and Mirage derivatives.

– 4th gen delivered to only 5 out of 10 supersonic fighter users (Brazil, Chile, Cuba, Peru, Venezuela). 5 others only use 3rd generation (Honduras, Mexico, Argentina, Ecuador, Colombia).

– Total of 155 4th generation aircraft delivered. 66 of these have been second hand.

– One 4th generation user (Cuba) will probably never acquire fighter aircraft again due to loss of Soviet support.

– 3rd generation continues to sell even in 2010s – Kfir to Colombia, Cheetah to Ecuador.

– Focus on COIN – subsonic jets replaced with turboprop EMB-314 Super Tucano.

– Only Brazil can afford 5th generation yet they will probably buy 4.5th generation aircraft.

– Most 3rd generation only users (Mexico, Colombia, Honduras and possibly Ecuador) probably won’t acquire replacement jets due to little or no need and requirement for COIN.

Western Europe – good prospects for small sales
– Fifth generation acquired by many airforces but in significantly lower numbers than fourth generation.

– 4.5 generation to dominate due to being mainstays in UK, Spain, Italy, Germany, France and Sweden.

– By the time 4.5 generation needs replacing, most likely UCAV or 6th generation will be pursued.

Eastern Europe – minimal if no market prospects

– Eastern European AF have collapsed since 1991.

– No real commitment to defence.

– A number of 4th generation jets were provided free (MiG-29 for Poland, Slovakia and Hungary(retired), Su-27 for Kazakhstan) or acquired during Cold War (Bulgaria, Poland, Romania (retired)) or inherited from USSR (Belarus, Ukraine, Ubzekistan etc etc).

– Most likely scenario is limited purchases of second hand or new 4th generation fighters or in some cases phasing out of supersonic capability (as done by Albania)

Sub Saharan Africa – no market at all

– Threat has become insurgency and not conventional war.

– Loss of USSR support means many former MiG-17/-251 users no longer fly jet aircraft at all (e.g. Mali, Mozambique).

– Most sales post 1991 have been of second hand Su-25 and where newbuild aircraft are involved K-8 and J-7.

– Only 2 sales of new 4th generation aircraft (South Africa = Gripen, Uganda = 6 Su-30MK).

– Other 4th generation sales have all been second hand ex-USSR (Eritrea, Ethiopia and Angola).

– Once Soviet stocks are used up, most operators will be unable to buy any new aircraft, save subsonic jets or most likely attack helicopters.

– Most airforces are in terminal decline with dwindling resources. This includes top dog South Africa who’se struggling to maintain any capability with JAS-39.

Arab North Africa – potential customer Algeria (Pak Fa)
– Egypt’s fourth generation fleet is mainly funded by US. US has historically refused to sell to Egypt more advanced aircraft such as F-15. With instability and rise of Muslim Brotherhood, even F-16 sales have become topical.

– Egypt is too poor to be able to afford fighter jets on it’s own – even Mirage purchases were funded by Saudi Arabia.

– Morocco – only small numbers of 4th generation aircraft with bulk of fleet focusing on upgraded 3rd generation (Mirage F1, F-5). Replacement of these will probably be second hand 4th generation.

– Libya – issues with warlordism.

– Tunisia – 15 F-5s.

– Algeria – only real potential customer.

– Sudan – cannot afford Fifth generation especially with loss of South Sudan.

Middle East
– Israel will have initial monopoly on F-35 (Turkey is European).

– Scope for F-35 sales later in 2020s once restrictions are eased.

– Some scope for Pak Fa sales to Iraq.

– Loss of large potential markets in Syria and Iraq due to instability and/or changes in politcal policy (i.e. Hussein deposed).

– All current Middle East Arab focus is on 4.5 generation (F-16E/F, F-15SA, Eurofighter and potentially Rafale).

– Even if Syria stabilises, it and Yemen are too poor to afford fifth generation.

– Loss of USSR support (Yemen, Iraq, Syria).

Indian Subcontinent
– Pakistan – too poor to afford anything but a small silver bullet fleet

– Adoption of 5th generation in India.

– Afghanistan – warlordism.

– Bangladesh – again too poor. Will be dealing with some major climate change issues.

– Stans covered in Europe

South East Asia

– Laos and Cambodia no longer operate combat aircraft nor are expected to do so in future.

– Vietnam – scope for small Pak Fa sales

– Phillipines – currently no fighter capability and defence modernisation plans have been going nowhere since 1995. Government corruption seems to be heading out of control again.

– Singapore – definitely an F-35 operator and probably in some numbers

– Thailand – many F-16 purchases have been second hand and only small number of Gripens have been purchased. Fifth generation might be only for a small silver bullet fleet.

– Myanmar – too poor

– Malaysia – potentially small silver bullet fleet

– Indonesia – disjointed procurement processes since 1960s. Again small 5th gen bullet fleet possible.

East Asia
Japan – slow adoption of fifth generation aircraft
South Korea – faster than Japan but still slow (remember South Korea still operates a large 3rd gen fleet F-4E and F-5E/F).
Taiwan – will probably have to develop an indigenous jet.
China – slow adoption (just like J-10 and Flanker)

Oceania
– RNZAF has scrapped fast jet fleet with no plans to resurrect.
– RAAF – to buy 5th generation F-35 as mainstay.