Why China's air power does not seem threatening.

An interesting article of PLAAF:

http://www.airforcemag.com/MagazineArchive/Pages/2013/January%202013/0113PLAAF.aspx

What’s especially interesting are the estimates of Chinese combat aircraft (PLAAF only):

Modern
J-10A: 120-200
J-11A: 116-140
J-11B: 18
Su-30: 73-76
JH-7*: 70-72
[b]TOTAL: 399-486 (29% – 37% of fighter fleet)[/]

*JH-7 may be new but it certainly doesn’t seem modern. Think underpowered Tornado

Older generation
J-7: 350-552
J-8: 312 -360
Q-5: 120-130
TOTAL: 782 – 840 (63%-71% of fighter fleet

PLANAF is in a similar position.

In the future the number of older aircraft will be replaced with newer aircraft including 5th generation. The article estimates 1,000 4th generation by 2020.

However, the threat posed by these is still not that great:

– US operates over 2,000 combat aircraft all of which are either 4th generation or 5th generation.

– US allies in North Asia (Japan/Korea/Taiwan) operate a further 800+ fourth generation aircraft as well as several hundred 3rd generation aircraft being replaced by 4th/5th generation aircraft.

Including Vietnam and Australia, SE Asia has a further 300+ fourth generation as well as a similar number of 3rd generation aircraft (mainly in Vietnam).

– China’s geographic and political situation means it still requires reserves of fighters for India as well as Asian borders (e.g. a conflict against Japan would still require a maintenance of reserve against Taiwan as well as Vietnam and Spratleys.

This makes concentration of force difficult.

– Regiments with modern aircraft are far smaller than those with older ones. A J-7 regiment has 46 aircraft whereas a Su-30 or J-10 regiments has 24-28.

Hence it’s most likely that 800-ish old jets will be replaced by only 500 newer ones for a total fleet of 1,000-ish fighters.

– China is extremely lacking in aerial refuellers – it’s fleet is not much bigger than Great Britains and certainly not the hundreds of aircraft deployable by USA.

– China also doesn’t seem to have even close the number of AWACS or C3 aircraft the US has (E-2/E-3/E-6/E-8) and it’s overall capability in EW seems to be an unknown but certainly wouldn’t be at the same level of USA.

– China is also lacking in strategic airlift – Y-20 and Il-76 help here but it’s certainly not enough to sustain longer large scale deployments.

I think PLAAF/PLANAF is a potent force for defence of China and this capability will grow.

However it’s ability to project power seems low and in fact it doesn’t seem to be growing much when compared to USA. US allies in Northern Asia have also kept their investments up to a degree.

Ironically, China’s big problem seems to be lack of numbers. And that problem will not be resolved as long as the US and the northern Asians can continue to invest in defence even at moderate rates.