Why the F-35 was always going to sell well in export markets

I’m seeing a lot of these “everyone needs F-35 hence they buy them” posts by the F-35 fanboi club.

I figured it needs a thread of it’s own.

Let’s do a little scenario:

Assumption 1: Instead of being developed as 4th generation fighters, Rafale and Typhoon were developed as full spec 5th generation stealth fighters.

Assumption 2: Typhoon and Rafale performance exceeds F-35 in ALL parameters.

Who would win most export competitions? F-35 of course

WHY? I hear you say.

Well the answer is simple: It’s American.

Look at export history of western jet fighters – I’ve noted Europe/NATO/Asia as they were primary buyers of combat aircraft though Middle East has since grown:

2nd generation fighters

Mirage III/V: 20 exports (includes 3 Europe + Australia + Israel).
Etendard IV: 0 exports

J-35: 3 exports (all Western Europe)

EE Lightning: 2 exports (all Middle East)
Hunter: 20 exports (1 to Asia, 5 to Western Europe)

F-100: 4 exports – 3 NATO, 1 Asia
F-101: 1 export – NATO
F-102: 2 exports – all NATO
F-104: 14 exports – 10 NATO, 2 Asia

A-4 (not 3rd gen per se but included for purposes of the point I’m making): 9 including 4 in Asia Pacific and Israel.

3rd generation fighters
Mirage F1: 10 exports + 3 second hand resale/gift (Argentina/Gabon/Iran) – only 2 were NATO.
Super Etendard: 1 export (plus 1 lease)

Jaguar: 4 exports – all 3rd world

F-4: 10 + 1 lease (includes 5 NATO, 2 Asia, Israel)
F-5: 30+ 3-4 second hand (includes 8 Asia and 6 European)

Saab 37: 0 exports

4th generation fighters
F-14: 1 export
F-15: 5 including 3 in Asia and 2 in ME
F-16: 25 including 9 NATO, Israel, 5 Asian,
F/A-18: 7 including 2 NATO, 2 European, 2 Asia Pacific and 1 ME

Tornado: 1 export

Mirage 2000: 8 export including only 1 NATO, 1 Asian,

Typhoon: 3 export (+ potential for maybe 5-6 more mainly in ME)

Rafale: 1 export (+ potential for maybe 5-6 more mainly in ME)

JAS-39: 5 icluding Switzerland (4 European, 1 Asian)

Collapse of French fighter exports
– From a high of 20 odd Mirage III/V export users to only 8 for Mirage 2000 to potentially 1 only for Rafale.

– Very few successes in NATO or Asia even at height of Mirage III/V sales.

– Has lost some big customers to other competitors – Israel, Australia, South Africa.

– Most MIII/V and F1 sales were to African/Latin American/ME countries whose airforces have collapsed either due to poverty or war (Zaire, Lebanon, Libya, Iraq).

– M2000 was a rather dismal export failure – most customers brought 20 or less and no-one brought more than 68. Compare with
many F-15 and F-16 users buying 200+ and even F/A-18 getting 3 sales of about 100 or more (Canada, Australia,Spain).

– France had no real market success in Asia (except for Taiwanese M2000s).

– NATO buyers did not buy even successful III/V or F1 in large numbers or at all.

– US has expanded market foothold in Middle East – UAE (F-16E/F), Kuwait (F/A-18), Morocco (F-16) – all traditional French markets.

Swedes were never really in the market and have done well with Gripen
– The Swedes have had success with Gripen in smaller markets and then generally for handfuls of aircraft.

– They have however lost Finland and Austria as customers.

– Not much market potential even against F-16 which had US backing.

USA has dominated Western fighter markets since early-mid 1950s

– The US established it’s dominance in Western Europe and North Asia with subsidised/free F-84 and F-86s

– The US established it’s dominance over South Asia, South Europe and much of Middle East with subsidised F-5 and F-104.

– Operators naturally opted for US aircraft as replacement for existing US fighters. The usual European/Asian progression was F-84G – F-84F/F-86 – F-104/F-5 – F-16 (some variations existed).

– In 1970s/80s USA could offer 4 different types of fighters to meet any type of demand:
1. Very Light (F-5)
2. Light (F-16)
3. Medium (F/A-18)
4. Heavy (F-15)

This helped cement US dominance over France which generally only offered 1 product.

Rest of Europe

– Not much success in supersonic exports for older types (Tornado, Harrier, Lightning)
– Eurofighter has exact same prospects as Rafale – basically countries who do not have access to F-35 for political reasons.

Conclusion – even if better options were available, F-35 would still be an export success
– USA has dominated fighter market since 1950s.

– Most countries that operate Western fighters usually have decades of experience on US fighters which means employment of US organisational, tactical and logistical systems that makes it hard for anyone new to get into market.

– France was only real competitor in 1960-1980s but lack of product variety, collapse of target market and lack of political muscle has seen them drop out of the race.