Will IRST become more important than fighter radars?

I was working through a potential F-35/Eurofighter confrontation earlier, and with some research, I found that the Eurofighter would likely be able to detect the F-35 on IRST before the F-35 detects the EF on radar. It is also likely that the F-35 will detect the EF on IRST before radar contact is made between either. I would like to discuss the application of IRST in BVR combat; EF vs. F-35 has been debated to death already. Please don’t turn it into a flame thread. 😀

Referring to the handy chart here:

We see that the APG-81 will detect a 0.1 m^2 target like the EF at around 45 nmi (87 km). If the EF is using jamming, then the range is likely to be cut down even more. I read that the range of the EF’s PIRATE IRST system is around 100 km in good conditions against targets that don’t employ IR stealthing (I understand that the F-35 lacks this, as opposed to the F-22). I also know that the F-35 has a ginormous engine with an undoubtedly high exhaust temperature that doesn’t have an IR obscuring nozzle like the raptor. So it is reasonable to assume that the EF can detect the F-35 at long range.

Now the F-35 also has an advanced IRST system. We will assume it is at least as good as PIRATE (I don’t know if it is or isn’t). Given that the EF probably has a smaller IR signature (smaller engines; I don’t know what if any IR stealthing the EF provides), the two systems may or may not detect each other around the same time. Who detects who first is almost irrelevant. We have established that both have established IRST contact before either has achieved radar contact.

We’ll assume that both the F-35 and EF are equipped with the METEOR BVR missile, as this is about the most advanced BVR missile available in the near future time frame that such an encounter is likely to happen. I assume that METEOR can be guided passively by datalink and can achieve a radar lock of its own after being fired (I’m pretty sure MICA can do this too). So really, given the direction of the enemy target, a METEOR could be fired and guided by its owner’s IRST over a link, and only achieve lock in the terminal stages of flight (last 10 km or so).

What is interesting is that in this scenario, neither aircraft used their radars for the BVR engagement. I don’t know if this is possible, but it seems to be, especially in coming years. So in coming years, perhaps we will see more in the way of IR detection and countermeasures in addition to radar, as well as less emphasis on radar stealth and more on IR stealth.

Thoughts?