Willie Walsh: No interest in the A380

In the BOAC/BEA days when we actually had aircraft manufacturers producing entire aircraft rather than just the bits, they were strongly encouraged to ‘buy British’. This lead to aircraft being designed such as the VC10 with its good hot/high/short field performance ideal for routes to India / Africa etc. This carried a penalty in terms of economy and made it unattractive to operate in situations when hot/high performance was not critical. This was made worse by the early american jets where runway lengths were increase to accommodate them leaving the VC10 with no real need for hot/high performance and the cost of such performance.

BEA were also guilty of this with the Trident in that it was designed to suit BEA markets rather than a worldwide market.

My feeling on the long-haul high-capacity market right now is that there are a number of airlines waiting to see what happens when the A380 enters service. No one is moving at present, either towards Airbus or Boeing – order books with neither are growing, so the airlines can play a waiting game. I think we will see a significant number of orders in some 12 months to 18 months from now – i.e. between mid-2007 and the end of 2007. If the A380 goes into service with early adopters relatively smoothly and delivers on its performance guarantees, I think the majority of airlines sitting on the fence will start to talk more about acquisition of the big Airbus. If however there are snags that seem to be taking time to sort out, I think a number of airlines will start talking more seriously to Boeing.

I fully agree with this comment.

There are a large number of examples of airlines that don’t buy their “National Brand” or who have in the past but have changed this because another aircraft suits their needs better e.g. U.S. Airways A330.

For someone who is studying engineering in the UK, I hope that there is a job out there for me when I graduate and therefore put a lot of faith in UK Engineering. That doesn’t mean to say however, that I think for example BA should invest in the A380 because of its composition of UK Engineering. If it didn’t suit their needs it would be corporate suicide (not quite, but you know what I mean) and then we would be left without the (once dominant) British flag carrier.

Although I personally prefer Boeing aircraft, I appreciate the immense level of engineering that has gone into the A380 (as well as other Airbus aircraft) and I hope they have every success in it. As I said earlier, I do agree that customers are waiting to see what happens with the A380 and waiting to see the developments in the 748 project before committing. There are a large number of carriers across the globe (especially in Asia) that have had a very high utilisation of their 747 products and therefore will be in need to replace them with something similar in the next few decades.

Anyway, that’s my 2cents 🙂
Symon

Okay didn’t see the moderators post, sorry for above post.

Rob, this really is a counter-productive argument. But you said it was rediculous, the implication CLEARLY being that you thought it was rediculous for BA to buy Boeing [747s] when it could buy Airbus [A380s].

True. But that does not mean that I hate Boeing! It means that I like/support Airbus [an 80% foreign company!]. I have a neutral view on Boeing [or to be truthful I like any aviation company!]

As I said, if the playing field were TOTALLY level it might be faintly rediculous for BA to go to the US for its aircraft, but the playing field will never will be totally level.

See my second post I made similar remarks there.

BA need to protect their own interests more than they do British manufacturing [of large airliners] – in fact, I suspect that BA employs more people in the UK than does Airbus right now, and that alone suggests they should do what’s best for BA and not what’s best for British airliner manufacturing.

Obviously a large airline based in the UK will have British employees and your point is? Just because they have employees here does not mean they couldn’t do more for Britain. And as I said BA prides themselves buying R-R engines whenever possible because they are British, so why not Airbus aircraft? Are they so bad compared to Boeing? I don’t think so.

Xenophobia suggests putting nationalistic interests above all others – I don’t think that there’s much more to say.

No. Xenophobia means you hate foreigners/foreign products which is not the case with me. I am happy to fly in a Boeing this evening and I love the B787, great plane, but I still think some airlines could buy British aircraft, if the quality gap is not too large. It’s like saying just because I support the England cricket team I’m xenophobic! Ridiculous.

Moderator Comment

Let’s all just drop the personal stuff, shall we?

Starting from right now.

Thanks

GA

It’s ridiculous! The airline with the “brand” British Airways might prefer to buy an American plane with American engines instead of a partly British plane with British engines.

Rob, this really is a counter-productive argument. But you said it was rediculous, the implication CLEARLY being that you thought it was rediculous for BA to buy Boeing [747s] when it could buy Airbus [A380s]. As I said, if the playing field were TOTALLY level it might be faintly rediculous for BA to go to the US for its aircraft, but the playing field will never will be totally level. BA need to protect their own interests more than they do British manufacturing [of large airliners] – in fact, I suspect that BA employs more people in the UK than does Airbus right now, and that alone suggests they should do what’s best for BA and not what’s best for British airliner manufacturing. Xenophobia suggests putting nationalistic interests above all others – I don’t think that there’s much more to say.

Andy

We also have to remember that BA is no longer a state airline but a privatised enterprise.

Yes and that is why I didn’t say they have to do it, I just said I’d like them to do it. [the thing with dropping the B was a joke!] I know very well that they don’t care what I say, I don’t fly with them anyway! 🙂

As to xenophobia, it seems reasonable to make such an accusation if one suggests airlines should place nationalistic preferences above commercial reality. On a totally level playing field, where the 747-800 was identical to the a380, nationalistic preference would be reasonable. However, there is NEVER a totally level playing field and every entirely commercially driven airline will make a true commercial decision.

No, I don’t think so. Supporting your own country is not xenophobic. It is normal everyone does that [so are 6 Billion people xenophobic?] do I have to support foreign manufacturers to be not xenophobic? Nonsense! A person is xenophobic if he attacks foreigners/foreign products verbally or violently just because they are foreign. I didn’t do that. I just stated support for an European aircraft maker [and thus also I expressed support for the 80% of Airbus that is foreign owned.] I’ll continue to support Airbus after BAe sale of the 20% because I’m European. nothing wrong in that. I don’t attack a Scot because he supports Boeing for whatever reasons, that is okay for me.
Besides my second post made my position more clear, but it seems no one read it. :confused:

Get off your high horse.
No one personally attacked you, and accusing us of such is an attack in itself!

I am not accusing more than one person of insults, I’m just accusing you. You called me xenophobic which is clearly an insult.

Your post was xenophobic in the sense that you outright demanded that British Airways, being British, MUST buy British products.

I didn’t say that. Perhaps you ought to read posts carefully before posting insulting replies? I said the British government should force them to drop the B from the name. This was followed by a 😉 Clearly indicating that it was a joke. I then said “no wonder British manufacturing is going down the drain” which is no more than stating that the British industry is not doing too well, obviously also because of a lack of British support for British industry. If I had said they are doing badly due to Boeing “robbing” the UK worker or some such nonsense, that would have been xenophobic, but my only criticism in my post was directed towards British people, hardly xenophobic as I’m half British myself! Besides wanting a company to buy a certain nations product is not xenophobic. Do you know what xenophobic means? It means you are scared of foreigners or things foreign which can lead to hatred of foreigners/foreign things. I have not shown such a thing in any of my posts whilst you have attacked a half-foreigner for stating his opinion. I guess that is what one calls irony.

No one is saying supporting either A or B is wrong.

You said I was xenophobic after I said I supported Airbus, sounds like you’re trying to push me into bad light just for supporting airbus.

P.S. Good that you have understood now that it’s xenophobic and not zenophobic [that would mean dislike/fear of Zen].

I don’t see why supporting Airbus [a company with a very large non British part] is xenophobic? Obviously if those are the standards you apply then supporting Boeing would be xenophobic too. Hundreds of Millions of people in Germany, Britain, France, Japan, USA etc… would be xenophobic because they want their industry to be supported by government/other companies. It’s childish calling people names just because they support a company you don’t like. It’s a real disgrace that one can’t discuss something without being personally attacked, especially as the attack was unprovoked and the insult is absolutely baseless [hell I’m “the Kraut” when I’m in Britain and when I’m in Germany I’m “the Tommy” ;)]. But trying to personally attack someone who is of a differing opinion and who is not supporting your view would be the more xenophobic attitude than just stating support for a country [and certainly not degrading any other country!]. But as you spell it zenophobic [which means dislike of Zen] you might not even know what you were saying and are just using words that sound “cool” to you, so I’ll forgive you. :diablo: 😎 :p

We also have to remember that BA is no longer a state airline but a privatised enterprise.

Were it still goverment owned then politics may come into play in terms of fleet purchasing ? Look at Aer Lingus as an example of a modern european state owned airline and the complete absence of ‘foreign’ types within it’s fleet these days…

The introduction of the A380 into service is interesting right now, and in many ways parallels that of the 747 going into service getting on for some 40 years ago.

Boeing had an initial rush of orders for the 747, then a rather lean spell when no one was ordering and when they had major problems getting the design sorted out and into service (engine issues being a substantial problem early in the 747 program). Add to that scepticism from some that the capacity was not needed nor could be coped with, then 747 program was fairly slow to take off. At one time, the 747 came close to breaking Boeing. But Boeing demonstrated that they could overcome the problems, and the design took off on what is approach a 40 year career, with maybe another 10 or more to come.

Now we’re going through a similar cycle with the A380, and time will tell whether it sells few more than the 159 committed to to date, or whether it becomes a bigger success. My feeling is that it will become a successful program and sell significantly more than it currently has, albeit within the constraints that the ULA market will never be as big as others. As I say, I don’t think that there will be much truely market-defining action for about another year or so, either towards or away from Airbus.

As to xenophobia, it seems reasonable to make such an accusation if one suggests airlines should place nationalistic preferences above commercial reality. On a totally level playing field, where the 747-800 was identical to the a380, nationalistic preference would be reasonable. However, there is NEVER a totally level playing field and every entirely commercially driven airline will make a true commercial decision.

Andy

That’s ‘xenophobic’ by the way… 😀

6 hours sleep in 48…. gimme a break 😉

I don’t see why supporting Airbus [a company with a very large non British part] is xenophobic? Obviously if those are the standards you apply then supporting Boeing would be xenophobic too. Hundreds of Millions of people in Germany, Britain, France, Japan, USA etc… would be xenophobic because they want their industry to be supported by government/other companies. It’s childish calling people names just because they support a company you don’t like. It’s a real disgrace that one can’t discuss something without being personally attacked, especially as the attack was unprovoked and the insult is absolutely baseless [hell I’m “the Kraut” when I’m in Britain and when I’m in Germany I’m “the Tommy” ;)]. But trying to personally attack someone who is of a differing opinion and who is not supporting your view would be the more xenophobic attitude than just stating support for a country [and certainly not degrading any other country!]. But as you spell it zenophobic [which means dislike of Zen] you might not even know what you were saying and are just using words that sound “cool” to you, so I’ll forgive you. :diablo: 😎 :p

Get off your high horse.
No one personally attacked you, and accusing us of such is an attack in itself!

Your post was xenophobic in the sense that you outright demanded that British Airways, being British, MUST buy British products. Further garnishing your demand by rating BA as being in disgrace for operating non British aircraft.

No one is saying supporting either A or B is wrong.

……But likewise, jumping onto the 747-800 bandwagon now could be a mistake for BA too, given that Boeing have dismally failed to sell any passenger versions to date………….
……..Boeing would I think be getting rather jittery now, were it not for the fact that it is cushioned to some extent by orders for the new freighter version of the 747………….

Andy

Dismally failed? thats a bit strong I think.
Please take note that the 748 is far from final design freeze. Boeing is only just getting round to being able to offer specific specifications.

Also, I wouldn’t think Boeing have anything to be jittery about. The 748 will sell foremost as a freighter and I’m quite sure Boeing know that. I have a feeling they’re comfortable with the current interest it is generating.

I don’t see why supporting Airbus [a company with a very large non British part] is xenophobic? Obviously if those are the standards you apply then supporting Boeing would be xenophobic too. Hundreds of Millions of people in Germany, Britain, France, Japan, USA etc… would be xenophobic because they want their industry to be supported by government/other companies. It’s childish calling people names just because they support a company you don’t like. It’s a real disgrace that one can’t discuss something without being personally attacked, especially as the attack was unprovoked and the insult is absolutely baseless [hell I’m “the Kraut” when I’m in Britain and when I’m in Germany I’m “the Tommy” ;)]. But trying to personally attack someone who is of a differing opinion and who is not supporting your view would be the more xenophobic attitude than just stating support for a country [and certainly not degrading any other country!]. But as you spell it zenophobic [which means dislike of Zen] you might not even know what you were saying and are just using words that sound “cool” to you, so I’ll forgive you. :diablo: 😎 :p

. Just making a retort to a certain zenophobic post.

That’s ‘xenophobic’ by the way… 😀

The climb performance (in isolation) of the A340-300 is irrelevent, as is the patriotic argument over buying 747-800s versus A380s. Airlines that have bought A340-300s will have evaluated overall performance – climb, cruise, decent, acquisition costs, maintenance costs, crew costs, etc., etc., etc – against the overall required mission required of it and decided it meets their needs better than the alternative, just as BA will decide on the 747-800 versus the A380 (or neither) on the same basis in the fullness of time.

In recent years, BA have demonstrated an avertion to being an early adopter. Given that they have sat on the fence regarding the A380, waiting to see seems like a sensible approach right now. But likewise, jumping onto the 747-800 bandwagon now could be a mistake for BA too, given that Boeing have dismally failed to sell any passenger versions to date.

My feeling on the long-haul high-capacity market right now is that there are a number of airlines waiting to see what happens when the A380 enters service. No one is moving at present, either towards Airbus or Boeing – order books with neither are growing, so the airlines can play a waiting game. I think we will see a significant number of orders in some 12 months to 18 months from now – i.e. between mid-2007 and the end of 2007. If the A380 goes into service with early adopters relatively smoothly and delivers on its performance guarantees, I think the majority of airlines sitting on the fence will start to talk more about acquisition of the big Airbus. If however there are snags that seem to be taking time to sort out, I think a number of airlines will start talking more seriously to Boeing.

So right now, its down to Airbus to prove its aircraft. Boeing would I think be getting rather jittery now, were it not for the fact that it is cushioned to some extent by orders for the new freighter version of the 747. Time will tell… As I say, I think the big action now will come in the middle of next year.

Andy

Which is why a 747/777 has to burn off fuel before being able to reach its optimum cruising altitude,whereas an A340 can climb (ableit slowly) to its optimum altitude without the need to “stepclimb” up?

Quite correct.
Why mention the 747 though?

I don’t want to get into an shootout here. But I think you may be wrong as regards to climb performance. It does matter.
It is well known that the sooner an aircraft gets to its cruising alt, the less fuel it will burn overall. And requiring extra time to complete SID departures adds more fuel burn.

I’m not saying the A340 is bad, and I have already said I’m not knocking it.

But we digress! let get back onto the A380 topic. There are good arguments for and against BA ordering them. Personaly I beleive they’re doing the right thing by sitting on the fence and watching and letting the pies cool before dipping their fingers in to taste which is best.

Which is why a 747/777 has to burn off fuel before being able to reach its optimum cruising altitude,whereas an A340 can climb (ableit slowly) to its optimum altitude without the need to “stepclimb” up?

Originally posted by: Bmused55:

So I suppose you think BS should have made do with the lumbering A340-300 then? Or the none performing A340-200 perhaps? Instead of getting the 772ER? A plane known to be far more efficient that any A340 offering.

The days of BA buying solely British are gone. They will buy what fits their needs, regardless of where it comes from. Learn to accept that and move on mate.

I didn’t say BA should be forced to buy anthing, I said they should drop the British Airways brand because it fools people into believing they cared about Britain. Okay I’ll admit it is a bit polemic. 😉 BTW BA has always said they’ll buy R-R engines if possible so why not Airbus [if they offer the same quality]? Besides I am talking about a specific case: A380 with a 40-50% UK content versus B747-8 with about 0% UK content. I don’t see why the A380 doesn’t fit the bill for BA, if Lufthansa,Qantas etc… are buying it for similiar routes. Also a brand new A380 must be better than a redone B747. But me getting heated over this is premature anyway because I believe they’ll go A380 anyway.

Originally posted by Bmused55:

That its a very zenophobic view you have there.

I don’t dislike Zen. :diablo: Or did you mean xenophobic? But I have to disappoint you there too. I didn’t express dislike or hatred of Boeing or the US, I just said I thought British airlines should buy British products, nothing wrong in that. I find it quite funny that patriotism is viewed as being xenophobic. :confused: :rolleyes:

Originally posted by Skymonster:

In today’s highly competitive and narrow-margin airline business, there is no place for patriotism to take precidence over fit-for-purpose. BA will buy what they believe delivers the best return for their business, and if British industry can’t deliver that then British industry deserves not to win the business.

Well it doesn’t seem like Lufthansa, Air France agree, do they? They have large Airbus fleets [yes they have Boeings too] but to me it seems they prefer Airbus if the products are comparable in quality.

P.S. Won’t be able to answer because I’m flying away this evening, on board of a Boeing! 😮 😉