yes could be likely!
certainly the J-10 is a superior aircraft to the PAF JF-17, but the JF-17 offers as much as 90% of the J-10’s capability for a fraction of the price! its better for Pakistan to blow its money on an aircraft that offers something substantially different. yup yup.

Right, I wonder why the idiots at PLAAF have not figured this part out and go for JF-17 instead. It’s a real mystery.

This is a really good topic to think about.

I’ve read some interviews conducted by Kanwa with PN regarding F-22P. PN has been very pleased with the quality of F-22P according to those interviews. They could just be nice about it in those interviews, but I hear no complaints from the Pakistani forums and some of them seem to have real ties to the Pakistani military. And with the stated intent to purchase Chinese submarines (which I’d imagine will be noisier than Western counterparts) and 054A frigate, it to me that they would have to be at least fairly satisfied with F-22P’s build quality and design.

I think the Type 25 export is a really interesting case. When that deal was first made 20 years ago, it was clearly a case of Chinese shipbuilding hitting the world market too early and taking a project that was above its capabilities. At that time, the Chinese domestic shipbuilding industry was still at its infancy and incapable of building complex ships. The naval ships were really not designed with sailors in mind. That had a lot to do with the poor quality of weapon systems (overly bulky and low in quality) and radar/electronics (not automated, high failure rate and low quality). When you think about how little sailing the PLAN was doing at that time, they simply just didn’t know how to design ships to fit modern requirements. But I think Type 25 was a very important turning point in Chinese history. It really forced the Chinese shipbuilders to work with the West in getting the ship out and fix some of the most elementary mistakes so that Thai navy would even take them. You can also see the amount of problem they had when they first tried to build the 052 class ship. Which was at least designed to operate for a prolonged period away from the port. Regardless of how much trouble it had, it did manage to sail to San Diego.

And with the turn of the century and the growth of the Chinese shipbuilding industry, they also learnt a lot from the Western countries in the recent years on designing better ships. Of course, military ships have much higher standards than civilian ones. But when you combine the improved civilian ship design capability with experiences from longer trips by PLAN, you become better at designing warships too.

Not surprisingly, the current mission to Gulf of Aden provided some much needed operational experience for PLAN. I’ve read about 054A ships encountering problems along the way that they never experienced back at home (as one would expect). Including one problem that was almost fatal in the Indian Ocean. And that has led to changes in 054A and fixes for the subsystems that were failing. You can see now that China has no qualms in sending 054As to Aden and to Mediterraneans. In fact, PLAN has been pleased enough with 054A to put even larger order down for it. I’m guessing you will probably see 16 to 18 054A before the end of its production run. The other new warships in PLAN also got sent to Gulf of Aden to check out any possible problems. They sent the new hospital ship around Africa to test it out. We saw Type 071 going there even though they don’t really need something that large to go after pirates. 052B/Cs got sent there too, although they already had long journeys before then.

btw, notice how they don’t feel confident enough to send those Sov warships there? Those are quickly becoming the white elephants of PLAN.

The other important part is that you are seeing much more concerted effort in designing ships with the living condition of the sailors in mind. We even saw a large basketball court on Type 071. I read about the improved food storage, so that the sailors can still eat fresh vegetables after several months. They even build a huge “life style” ship recently just so that PLAN officers can relax and get a nice R&R. They might send that to Gulf of Aden also.

Some other good things happened too. They realized that only their two most modern replenishment ships (886 and 887) can handle these missions, so those ships are getting overworked. As a result, they have a huge order for new replenishment ships that would be better equipped to handle the needs of a flotilla for several months. They figured out that they actually need to be able to stop and have replenishment at some oversea bases rather than relying purely on the replenishment ships, so they are at least developing some support network from South China Sea to Indian Ocean.

just to give you an idea.

2003 is the launch of first 052C. roughly 4-5 years later it was still doing test shots in SCS testing area.

I meanwhile the Ludas are near death and china really didn’t have ocean going ships to fill the ranks. Jiangnan is moving to Changxing and the ability to build destroyers is moving too.

Also on cost.
China really doesn’t have as big of unit cost advantage as one thinks.
If you build ships in serial and using modern modular techniques the cost for JP/SK/US to build a Arleigh Burke is actually very competitive vs China to do a similar product at 2 off batches.

having a dedicated yard that is not doing any other work;
using modern techniques ;
a single line of ships;
in really large quantity.
…really does help to lower the unit cost.

the expectation is that Jiangnan at Changxing Island will dedicate one yard to naval ships. same goes with the new Longxue yard in Guangzhou.

I got pretty good idea of what goes on in Chinese shipyard, believe it or not.
I’ve been on record in many places stating the amount of testing required for 052C and what that means for its air defense ships.

Outside of AB and Virginia class, I can’t think of another warship class where US cost can be comparable to Chinese costs. And if you look at the new batch of AB on order, it’s getting expensive too. I typically use 054A vs LCS comparison to give people an idea of the lower cost of Chinese ships. In fact, can you imagine any other country in the world that can build something like 054A at $200 million a pop? Same with the low cost of Type 022 FAC. And with the number of Yuan that’s getting produced these days, I’m pretty sure they are getting built pretty cheaply too.

Don’t think so. In 2008 and 2009, they really did not build that many ships when compared to other recent years. And even with the restart of 052C productions, they are still continuing and starting production of more 054As. In fact, right now they are doing serial production of 052C, 071, 054A and Improved Yuans. They clearly have the funding. Part of the delay is due to the relocation of JN. Part of the delay due to the time it took to produce GT25000 indigenously. But I think the largest part is that it took them a long time to fix all of the problems in the first 2 units. If you are a PLAN supporter, that’s good news, because that shows they were going for high standards for the combat system. As shown with 054A, it does not take PLAN 7 years to test out a new air defense system.

I don’t see China’s need to export J-20 anytime soon. As such, PAK-FA should do a lot better than J-20 in the export market. While Russia is exporting PAK-FA, China would probably be busy exporting various versions of J-10 to countries looking for cheaper alternatives.

So now the goal post has moved from Eagle Hannan saying everything that Paf fanboys want to hear — to him applying this only to things which are ‘realistic’. Was the former Iraqi foriegn minister (as you compared him to ) this ‘realistic’?

I do not see how what he said about JF-17 is inconsistant with what you have said. How about just listing all of his outrageous – earth shattering claims on ‘contention’ points in favour of PAF fanboys?

Let’s put it this way. If I am a decent college baseball player looking to get drafted. And I think the best I can get drafted is the 3rd round. If I get a phone call from the Yankees saying that they drafted me in the 3rd round, that would be what I want to hear and I would likely believe that. If I get a call from the Nationals saying I’m drafted first overall, I would find that too unrealistic and would think it’s a gag.

Now, can you see my argument with PAF fanboys and 5th gen aircraft? If you can’t, then I obviously can’t have a logical debate with you.

As for JF-17, you can’t seem to grasp the concept of “what you think PLAAF should do” and “what PLAAF really did”. If PAF think PLAAF should buy JF-17, that’s one thing. If PAF says PLAAF is buying JF-17, that’s a whole different issue.

This is just circumventing the points I made — lets try again.

1. He does not say anything remotely enough outrageous to justify comparing him to former Iraqi foriegn minister. In fact he makes some negative points like the example I gave. You say that he only says what PAF fanboys want to hear — tell me do PAF fanboys want to hear that the PAF has nothing to offer China’s 5th gen project??

There has never been any hint anywhere that PAF is currently involved with China’s 5th gen project. I see plenty of speculation about getting J-10B and improved version of JF-17, but nobody is thinking PAF is involved with China’s 5th gen project. So, does PAF fanboys want to believe it? yes. But do they have realistic hopes for it? no.

So how is that different from the rest? On any point of possible contention, everything is on the side of what PAF fanboys would want to believe.

2. How is him saying – and PAF officials telling him that the PLAAF will induct JF-17’s any different from you saying the same thing in a previous post already quoted? You have stated that you believe the same – so why is them saying it such a concern?? You can say that the PLAAF ‘will’ induct this fighter but when they say that the PLAAF ‘will’ induct this fighter — they are former iraqi foriegn ministers just telling PAF fanboys what they want to hear??

I’ve been very clear that my stated opinion is my preference and he is actually stating that it will happen for sure when there have been no real evidence that PLAAF will induct JF-17 for sure. Now, if I make a comment saying that something will happen for sure with no proof, that would make that kind of comment “wishful thinking”.

I don’t recall saying that PAF officials know more about China than ‘people close to PLAAF’ — but I think that if PAF officials say something about there 50/50 partnership project you can be pretty confident that they know what they are talking about. As for ‘people close to PLAAF’ – well depends on who they are and how ‘close’ they are in reality.

I believe the partnership is between CAC and PAF, not PLAAF and PAF. CAC is not getting any funding from PLA on JF-17. If there is any new fighter jets developed for PLAAF, they’d have to go through the consistent process of testing out in limited numbers at CFTE until the aircraft is ready for induction into service. That process takes at least a couple of years as you can see with the J-10B and J-11B projects. If PLAAF has already made the decision, you’d seen JF-17s getting a domestic designation and test flying at CFTE already, but we have not seen that.

Now, let me give you what I currently understand is the situation with JF-17 and PLAAF. Take it anyway you want to. There is a need in China to replace most of the 2nd generation aircraft. At the same time, PLAAF does not have enough funding to replace all these regiments with J-10 or J-11s. It’s not just the procurement cost but also the cost of training and maintaining J-10/11s. Therefore, PLAAF needs a much cheaper fighter jet to replace the less important regiments. PLAAF cannot accept JF-17 at its current configurations to PAF because they are too expensive. They are paying $25 million per J-10 and still cannot replace every regiment with it. If JF-17 is $15 to $20 million, then it’s not going to be cheap enough. So, they are going to have to develop a PLAAF version of JF-17 or a new fighter based on JF-17 or something else that is going to be far simpler. You know, with less capable radar, less advanced avionics, less payload and less multi-role capability. Most importantly, this fighter jet would have to use domestically produced engine like WS-13 to keep the cost down. A lot of J-7/8 regiments will need to be replaced in the coming years, so they’d have to come out with this design or disband those regiments. And when this program really starts up, we will see it getting tested at CAC and then CFTE. These things take time to develop. I will just continue to wait for the photos.

Regarding the numbers it confirms to be the LH951xx PLA 5th Army Aviation Regiment (1st GA) based at Nanjing now flying with at least 8 helicopters.

Deino, do you know what is the usual size of a army aviation regiment for attack helos?

Following the 83x4x-number it is the PLANAF’s 4th Division 12th Regiment based at Luqiao … quite interesting the same division that flies the Su-30MK2.
As such this is the 1st J-10 regiment for the PLANAF and the 7th overall and in mind of the numerous yellow birs currently standing at CAC yet another PLAAF regiment might be in preparation for the conversion process to begin maybe even this year.

we saw the 5th batch of J-10s from CAC stopping production in the early part of this year with 37 single seaters and some double seaters. That should be enough to fill this PLANAF regiment and PLAAF’s 26th regiment. We have also seen photos of the 6th batch of J-10 from CAC recently. If that batch starts delivery, then it should be able to at least send a few frames to a new regiment by the end of this year.