http://www.nytimes.com/2006/06/06/world/asia/06cnd-china.html
Aircraft Crash Sets Back China’s Military Efforts
By JOSEPH KAHN
Published: June 6, 2006
BEIJING, June 6 — China’s efforts to field an early-warning aircraft that could help it project power far beyond its borders and challenge American intervention in any conflict with Taiwan were dealt at least a temporary blow by the crash of a surveillance aircraft on Sunday, defense specialists in the region said.
The aircraft, described by two Chinese-controlled newspapers in Hong Kong as a Chinese-made airborne warning and control system, or Awacs, plane, slammed into a hillside in central Anhui province on Sunday, killing all 40 technicians and crew members on board.
The crash was described as one of the worst disasters in the history of the Chinese air force. Mainland Chinese media said Guo Boxiong, a top military official in Beijing, was supervising the investigation into the crash and that President Hu Jintao had expressed condolences to the families of the victims.
The two Chinese-backed newspapers in Hong Kong, Ta Kung Pao and Wen Wei Po, carried articles on Monday that described the crash in more detail than the mainland media. They did not identify the model of the plane, but regional experts suggested it was most likely the KJ-2000, an early-warning aircraft China has developed using mostly indigenous technology.
In addition to the loss of the aircraft, one of four China has built, experts said the deaths of the 40 people on board, including 35 electronics and avionics technicians, could hinder one of China’s most pressing military modernization programs.
“We don’t know the cause of the crash and can’t say for certain how much of a problem it will prove to be,” said Allen Behm, an expert on the Chinese military and a former chief strategist in Australia’s Defense Department. “But to lose that much expertise really does hurt.”
The United States has a sophisticated fleet of Awacs aircraft that it sees as giving its naval forces a decisive advantage in sea battles.
China needs such technology if its intends to project force far from its own shores. Without such technology, it would face tactical disadvantages in the event of a conflict with Japan or Taiwan.
China has repeatedly threatened to attack Taiwan if the island declares formal independence. The United States has said that it would come to Taiwan’s defense if China mounted an attack. Japan, an American military ally, uses American-made Awacs aircraft.
China tried for years to purchase Awacs technology from Israel, France, Britain and Russia. But the United States strongly opposed the sale of such technology, and Beijing has been forced to develop its own version.
The KJ-2000 is a conversion of a Russian-made Il-76 transport plane into an Awacs aircraft. The Chinese air force has also mounted sophisticated radar systems on its own Yun-8 transport planes.
The system China uses has similarities to the Israeli Phalcon technology Beijing once hoped to buy off the shelf. It has a fixed rotodome and phased-array antennas attached to the fuselage, aviation experts say.
Mr. Behm said the number of people on board Sunday’s flight suggested that China was conducting a test of the aircraft. The plane may have carried three-dozen technicians because China wanted to conduct the tests without transmitting real-time data from the aircraft to the ground.
The United States could potentially intercept air-to-ground signals from a Chinese Awacs plane and gauge the country’s progress in developing the technology, Mr. Behm said.
Lin Chong-pin, a former defense official in Taiwan, said China has pushed hard to develop early-warning aircraft and probably would not be deterred by the accident.
“They have the resolve and they have the money,” Mr. Lin said. “So I don’t imagine that this will set them back for too long.”
But he added that China may be somewhat less likely to pursue a risky military confrontation with Taiwan if it feels its Awacs aircraft are unprepared for wartime operation.
I love all the Way these guys are trying to imply it’s KJ-2000, when their main source is Andrei Pinkov of Kanwa. lol, never mind the fact that the Chinese gov’t has declared it’s a Y-8 transport that crashed. Never mind the fact that KJ-2000 is never stationned at Anhui. The question is what type of Y-8 is this? The answer is that it doesn’t really matter. If it is a Y-8 testbed, then another one can be built. If there is any major loss, it’s the lives of some of the engineers. But then again, I’m sure lab 38 can overcome this.
Another thing you have to keep in mind is that KJ-2000’s radar system is developed by lab 14, so this crash has absolutely no effect on that program.
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