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plawolf

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  • plawolf
    Participant

    Now for another issue. I am wondering about the engine problems that may be afflicting both Indian and Chinese Flankers. Perhaps UMPO plant may be overextended trying to make engines fast enough for MKKs, J-11s, MKIs and so on. I must add that despite some problems on the engines, the Indian SU-30s are able to maintain very high and intense periods of operability during exercises and not one has been lost in contrast to the other planes.

    And I have not encountered hearing any problem on the J-10s which use AL-31FN. Not even a wisp of a rumor. This is odd because the J-10 is more risky in terms of catastrophic engine failure compared to the Flanker which has another engine as a back up. It is likely the AL-31FN may have improvements in reliability. Another factor is that the engines are made in a seperate Salyut plant near Moscow, not the UMPO plant in the Urals. So maybe less pressure there, though it now appears the engine production is ramping up—with a new contract signed last April—as the J-7G line in Chengdu is closed and converted to J-10 production.

    well IIRC, some of the AL31s used in the Su30s were left overs from soviet times and that was one of the main reasons they had more problems. there is the issue of storage time and build quality.

    newly built Al31s should not have these problems.

    plawolf
    Participant

    I do not quite understand.. Do you want Russians to have jumped from MiG-15 directly to Su-27? What about F-86D, F-100, F-101, F-102, F-104, F-106, F-111, F-4, F-5, F-6 Skyray, F-9 Cougar, F-11 Tiger, RA-5, A-3, A-4, A-6, A-7, AV-8, A-10 and others? How many more steps do you need here?…

    some of the types you listed above are a misrepresentation as the likes of the F104 starfighter and F5 were only introduced to the USAF in limited numbers if at all as is the case of the F5, while the AV8 was a copy and slight mod of a british designed ac.

    im not that familiar with the earlier Su and Yak planes, but just off the top off my head there are quite a few, namely the Su7, Su9, Su11, Su15, Su17, Su24, Su25, Su27, Su30, yak28 etc. add those to the Mig list and you can see that the russians had more types in service, and when you consider that each type ran serious production in the hundreds if not thousands, then thats alot of extra planes built, extra money spent for little extra reward in terms of technolgical advances.

    Yes, you did. Quoting your own words from page 3 of this thread..

    *they were able to produce superior weapons systems at about the same price (only talking about production costs..*

    What part of this ain’t clear?…

    all i can say is sorry for that, was typing without thinking it through properly. 😮

    Quoting your own words again: 😉

    *but even that was still a little inferior so the soviets still had to buy larger numbers of these weapons then the west. so in the later years of the cold war the soviets were forced to spend a much much high proportion of their GDP on defence that was what bankrupted them*

    It is you who is speaking of some cost spiral in the later years of the CW , e.g. late 70s and 80s while my article proves that it was exactly vice versa, that at that time Soviets started to cut back, this means no cost spiral at all.. Now you start to speak about the whole course of the Cold War just to find some escape…..

    well there was no laps of concerntration on my part there. note i was talking about weapons systems in general and not just in terms of ac. just taking the combat ac example.

    “In the early 1980s the Soviet Union manufactured 400-450 fighters and 100 bombers and transports annually”

    http://www.sci.fi/~fta/ruaf-3-7.htm

    “In total, over 800 were delivered to the Soviet / Russian Tactical Air Forces and around 500 airframes prepared for initial export customers. By 1989, it was serving in 12 different air forces around the world. Presently, it is the only Russian aircraft on operational duty in NATO and serves in 21 air forces. Brassey’s reports that a total of 1216 MiG-29 single-seaters and 197 MiG-29UB dual-seaters were built by January 1985 (total of 1413). Since 1990, production was exclusively for export.”

    http://www.sci.fi/~fta/MiG-29.htm

    “In comparison to the wartime surge production of the B-24, the peak delivery month for F-16s from the Fort Worth plant was October 1981 with 33 aircraft, and the peak year was 1987 when 284 F-16s were delivered.”

    http://www.lmtas.com/news/programnews/combat_air/f16/f16_99/f16pr990330.html

    “F-16A: First production version for air-to-air and air-to-ground missions; production for USAF completed March 1985”

    http://www.danshistory.com/f16.html

    “When the USAF announced its F-16 requirement it was for some 1388 aircraft to replace the McDonnell Douglas F-4 Phantom (and other types) in the active and reserve inventories.”

    http://www.geocities.com/CapeCanaveral/Hangar/9787/Planes/f16.html

    1413 mig29s v 1388 F16s by 1985, and thats with the soveits cutting back. helps to make my point about how many more combat ac the soviets built during the course of the cold war v the west when they werent cutting back.

    and it is an indisputable fact that the USSR spent far more of its GDP on defence then the west, even in the later years.

    Quoting your own words again: 😀

    *the soviets were forced to spend a much much high proportion of their GDP on defence that was what bankrupted them. low productivity didnt help either. but the spiraling defence budget was still a major cause.*

    See the tiny little point there? It is you who indeed said that it was the major cause, e.g. the main reason for the collapse

    Seems to me that you are the only one here who needs to read your own posts carefully. I pay attention to every detail…

    and i supose in your book the soviets would have went bankrupt if they hadnt spent all that money on defence? :rolleyes:

    as before, you are not reading my posts carefully. i said massive defence spending led to the USSR becoming bankrupt , not collapsing.

    the fact the the USSR didnt make as much money as the west is a moot point here, for as inefficient the soviets were, they could still feed their all people if they didnt try to match the west in defence spending.

    the USSR going bankrupt was a major factor in the downfal of the USSR, but it was not the only reason nor even the main one. the USSR has been on the verge of bankrupty for a long time with shortages of every kind, but managed to pull through. the deteriorating financial situation didnt help, but the main cause of the collaps of the USSR was that the soviets, or rather the russians, had gradually loosened its grip on its satelite states, and finanlly there came a point where moscow could no longer hold onto those states.

    that was the main cause of the collaps of the USSR. what happened later in the new CIS and russia is that without each other, the shortages that each nation already suffered got worse, much worse and the economic hardship was a side-effect of the breakup of the USSR as well transition from a command economy to a free market economy overnight.

    plawolf
    Participant

    …How can you suppose that little technical advances had been made from all the investment that went into designing and building of Russian aircraft? Didn’t you say that Russian were able to overrun West in case of war? That was the goal and seems that they have fulfilled it..

    From your words it seems to me that West was constantly pushing the cutting edge with each gen while Russians were stepping at the place.. OK, we have for example MiG-15 and Su-27 and we have F-86 and F-15. Where is the difference?

    :rolleyes: and people wonder why i ask them to read my posts carefully first.

    sure the russians got there, or abouts, but look at how many more steps it took them. from the Mig15 to Su27/Mig29/Mig31, how many types came in between? Mig17, Mig19, Mig21, Mig23, Mig25, Mig27, Mig29, Mig31 and thats not counting the Sus and Yaks etc. also, remeber that the Su27 did enter service later then the F15.

    …West having the same production costs as Russians? Wake up, mate.. On which planet did that happen? Show us some figures, please.

    did i say they were the same or even similar? :rolleyes: i was merely pointing out that western ac dont cost nearly as much to make as they are sold for on the international markets.

    …Russians were building greater numbers of weapons that West did? 😮 ??? Look at MiG-31/MiG-29/Su-27 and F-16/F-18/F-15/F-14 production figures and say it again..

    that was from the later years of the cold war when the USSR was already starting to cut back, factor in all the planes the two sides built over the course of the cold war would be more appropriate.

    …As to the spiralling effect, I wonder how did you come to the idea that military was responsible for Soviet collapse and not politics and economics in general. Soviet defense only could have been as high as its economics would allow it. Some proof and figures to the Soviet defense budget in the 80s.

    again, not reading properly. when did i say the military costs was the only reason or even the main reason that the USSR collaped? all i said was that it was a significant contributing factor, and surely no-one is going to dispute that.

    The best philosophy for peace, is, obviously, giving up designing any weapons..

    so what you going to do when someone who spent all their spare change on weapons wants all the things you worked so hard to build? :rolleyes:

    edited for clarity.

    plawolf
    Participant

    …It’s quite obvious now that the Russians are capable of producing planes with a nice finish, don’t you think?

    did i dispute that?

    …That’s now, I’m talking then.

    well actually there was a shift away from the old philosophy of designing that was marked by the Mig29 and Su27 to one more akeen to that adopted by the west.

    …The Soviet solution was always nukes as well. The reasons for the collapse were many and complex- how they made their weapons has little impact…

    well no-one is arguing that the reasons for the collaps of the USSR was straight forward, however their early weapons design and procurment philosophy did contribute greatly in helping, or at the very least, speeding up the collapes.

    in reply to: Pictures, news and speculation thread #2671591
    plawolf
    Participant

    that photo is PSed, whoever made it is a jerk

    hmm, looks like they are getting better at it. 😮

    in reply to: Latest MKK, Zhuk-MSE and -MSFE news #2671619
    plawolf
    Participant

    Perhaps the sentence that says the order has been made, no need for the entire article.

    This marks a turning point in the MKK program, along with a clear direction and lack of the ambiguities we have seen in previous articles.

    well that was pretty much what i already wrote. it was a very breif article.

    in reply to: Latest MKK, Zhuk-MSE and -MSFE news #2671626
    plawolf
    Participant

    There’s a short piece in today’s Flight International – about first flight of Su-30MK3.

    Ken

    😮 yeah, thats the one i meant.

    in reply to: Great clip of a Tor-M1 launch #2671630
    plawolf
    Participant

    The drone kept flying in the same general direction because it was not structurally destroyed… ie for a plane that means wings blown off. That is no great surprise as the missile is more likely to be detonated near the front of an incoming aircraft than in a structurally important are like near the engine compartment or wingroot. I would suggest that 15kgs of HE firing shrapnel around near the front of most aircraft will to very messy, very bad things to the pilot and even if the plane continues on its path it is unlikely that the plane wil continue doing what it was doing. Equally with a missile that secondary explosion would have been very big and only little bits would be left.

    could you get such accuracy under real life conditions? seems like a safer bet to aim the missile at the center of a plane to make sure you hit it.

    in the AIM9X vid, the AIM9x (which couldnt have a much heavier warload) literally knocked the traget F4 drones into a spin. the loss of control was instantanious.

    admitedly, a missile shaped drone has lower drag and loosing a small stubwing would probably not have as great an effect in its flight profile compaired to a plane loosing a wing.

    plawolf
    Participant

    This alone could be right, but you have forgotten that the additional costs to achieve the same margin of durability tend to grow exponentially. If you got an aircraft engine with MTBO of 1000h and you want to increase the value to 2000h, you might need much less funds for development and precision assembly than to increase this value from 2000h to 3000h. Even in peace times it was much cheaper to produce twice as much relatively simple and rude engines than to develop and produce them as expensive and durable ones. This would mean to handle with completely new producing techniques (multiaxis CNC, CAD/CAM, FEM etc.), as well as improved computing technology (mostly FADEC). I did not say that Russians haven’t used CAD/CAM or FEM techniques in general, but certainly not within the whole chain of distributors and suppliers or in such extent as western engineers have….

    no offence, but thats just being shortsighted. military weapons are almost never mass produced using cutting edge tech, its too expensive. usually weapons are mass produced using mature tech which have become much more reliable and cost effective. however, you still need to invest greatly in R&D to be able to push the cutting edge out far enough that what was cutting edge yesterday is now mature tech ready to be applied on a large scale. that is in effect what the west has been doing with much of its military funding, at the expense of current combat capabilities.

    this means that in the short run, the overal combat alibility of the west’s armed forces where probabaly less then that of the soviets on the account that the soviets could replace losses cheaper and quicker.

    however, the drawback with the soviet method is that its unsustanble in the long term. a much larger proportion of the USSR’s defence budget went on building vast numbers of weapons ready for a war that will never come. in the end they are all thrown away, and little technical advances had been made from all the investment that went into designing and building them.

    this means that the west was constantly pushing the cutting edge that little bit further out with each gen of weapons compaired to the soviets. and that started to build up, and as a result, in the long run, they were able to produce superior weapons systems are about the same price (only talking about production costs, the americans are famous for having massive profit margines).

    in order to keep up, the soviets were forced to use their very best tech to mass produce weapons of a similar quality as western weapons being built with mature tech. but even that was still a little inferior, so the soviets still had to buy larger numbers of these weapons then the west. so in the later years of the cold war, the soviets were forced to spend a much much high proportion of their GDP on defence that was what bankrupted them.

    low productivety didnt help either. but the spiraling defence budget was still a major cause.

    What is better for your limited budget? To develope and produce three LADA Niva or a single Lincoln Navigator? Because in terms of its original purpose (..to ride..) Niva can perform as well as the Lincoln in heavy terrain, this all at much lesser costs. And what is more, you got three cars instead of one.. If one should eventually break, don’t give a damn, you can replace it quickly and cheaply. That was the philosophy…

    again, missing the point. weapons are to fight with, not merely to ride around in. if you were in the army, would you prefer to have one M16 automatice rifle in your hand or three springfeild built-action rifles?

    with large weapons systems, there is also the operating costs (three fighters will burn more juice then one); crew training costs (costs $ms to train pilots, even crappy ones); decomishoning costs (all those SSNs/SSBNs in russian port will have to be properly scraped some time, and that’ll cost ya); attrition costs (having planes that crash more frequently means you need to buy more planes to fill attrition, and you may also have to train more pilots 🙁 )…all of which sucks money from your defence budget, and that carries with it an opportunity cost – in this case, the ability to push the cutting edge out futher.

    designing weapons systems that are easy, cheap and quick to make is the best philosophy for war, but it is the wrong philosophy for peace.

    plawolf
    Participant

    PLAwolf, you cannot be more far from right than you are now.. How could aircraft maintenance overrun Soviet industry? It was exactly vice versa, the Russian hardware was designed to work in environment of limited Soviet defense budget.

    The reason for Soviet Union breakdown were mostly on sociological basis.. The military simply wasn’t backed by effective civil industry which is generally responsble to produce enough funds so little boys in uniforms got their toys to play with.. Due to competition with the West Soviets were working on extremely ambitious projects reaching far further than their civil industry could bear. (Buran Space Shuttle, Mir Space Station, etc.). The privileged industries were pumped with funds and human material so the civil industry only got the very remainder on everything, including know-how. That is why Russians are able to develop a nuclear submarine and a fully automated space shuttle but they cannot make a simple car or fridge well.

    Communism alone is a pretty human ideology (sharing the goods with all) but it is absolutely inapplicable with human beings as such because it requires something people simply do not have – honesty. Too bad Russians were pushing the realization of this ideology to such absurd extent.

    well if you stop to think for a moment before you started writing you might have realised what i was talking about.

    the soviet weapons were designed for war and only war. they were cheaper to build and could be made in massive numbers. and they had to be made in huge numbers to make up for their qualative gap.

    however, these weapons, because of the low quality standard demanded, didnt last very long. GD’s example of soviet engines v western engines was a good example. soviet engines might be alot cheaper then western engines, but western engines lasted at least twice as long. that meant that the russians had to build twice as many engines just to keep the same number of planes flying over the same period of time. factor in the numbers of the soviet AFs v the western AFs and you would easily see the massively greater amounts of funds the soviets needed to just maintain their combat forces compaired to the west.

    had the two had a war, the soviets would most likely be able to win the conventional conflict by wearing the west out with their ability to build greater numbers of weapons in shorter time much like what they did to the germans. however the west canceled that advantage out by bringing in the nuclear card, so there was never a real war. however, in peace time, over the long term, the soviets needed to spend much more on their military to maintain their fighting ability, hence the west was able to wear the soviets out with peace.

    im not saying that is the only reason, the reason you listed also contributed.

    plawolf
    Participant

    The above paragraph is pure slothful generalization fallacy, and to me implies some sort of quaint, outdated “home carpentery” ethic to the massive, standardized production line of military mass production.

    This philosophy was carried to its absurd extreme by the Germans in WW2, who over-engineered useless, non-critical parts with expensive materials and inordinate amounts of resources. None of the other allies had such extravagances as German aircraft- Specific parts have specific, exacting requirements that they must *meet*, and if the part doesn’t have to meet a certain requirement, it makes no sense to overengineer it for pure aesthetic value- in a war environment, which is what the context of the Su-27 etc. is. E.g. The maintenance system in the USSR was totally different to anything in the West.

    you are missing the point with german example. at time, they were pushing the limits of their technology to the every edge of what is practicle and even beyound. that is the problem they had. in a way, i’m seeing many paralles between that and the B2/F22/typhoon/rafale, very capable, but very expensive and time consuming to make, so the type’s overal combat ability might not be as good as a less capable type that is much cheaper and quicker to make. but thats a different matter.

    is it out of the ability of the world’s manufacturer’s to mass produce ac with high quality finishing? yes, we have seen that done with almost every western ac over the past 20 years.

    however there is a difference from choosing not to give a plane the ‘perfect’ finishing because of cost implications and not being able to do it at all. purhaps i should have emphysised this a little bit more to avoid confusion.

    if a plane doesnt get a good finishing because the manufacturer wants to cut down on cost that is one thing, however if a manufacturer simply cant make a plane to that quality level, then that is a very different matter, and that lack of quality will be reflected in every part of that ac.

    “it makes no sense to overengineer it for pure aesthetic value- in a war environment, which is what the context of the Su-27 etc. is. E.g. The maintenance system in the USSR was totally different to anything in the West”

    totally agree with that, however you are forgetting one crutial thing – the world is not at war.

    IMHO, that was what helped the russians to loose the cold war. they designed and built all their weapons so that they are ready to fight a war the next day, and most likely would have won a conventional conflict. problem was there never was a war, the west had a simple but effective solution, just use nukes if they were about to be overrun/warn out.

    as a result, in the long term, all those weapons that were cheap to mass produce wasnt as durable or relable as the more expansive western weapons, so needed more maintanence and needed to be replaced more frequently. and that eat into the defence budget.

    plawolf
    Participant

    And Western aircraft have never had quality problems? How many times have we heard about x or x plane being grounded because of any number of reasons? Their nice skin didn’t help them there.

    well there is a difference between planes being grounded as a result of design flaws and built problems.

    plawolf
    Participant

    So? The principle is still sound- the point is simply that looks do not equal combat capability or anything else. Looks= looks.

    there is a difference between what is acceptable quaility variations and what isnt, and the standards are different for different types of machines, so what is acceptable for one type of weapons may not be acceptbale for another. that was the point i was trying to make.

    and i have to agree with crobato on the belief that looks also reflect on the build quality of the whole machine and not just the surface.

    if you cant match the finishing on the outside of the plane, chances are you wont be able to match the quality of the build inside the plane, and that has a baring on performace; if your workers dont pay enough attention to their work to make the outside of the plane look good, then that lack of dedication my also be reflected on the workmanship of the rest of the plane and also performance and reliability.

    there may be exceptions, but expections are not the norm.

    T-34s remained crappy looking right up until the end of the war. It didn’t affect their combat effectiveness or reliability one bit. T-34s were at their most unreliable in 1940/41 (before the war) because they were just introduced and the crews/mechanics were not used to them.

    again, they were still in a state of war, and while the T34s were impressive peives of kit, they were no match against the german tigers in quality so the only way to win is to increase quantity.

    at the most desperate stages of the war, T34s were only expected to get to the battlefield and fight for a fewer hours or a few weeks at best (that was the bair minium and build quality improved as the situation got better). but the tanks of today are expected to last for decades.

    that is the difference between weapons designed and built for war and weapons designed and built built for peace.

    in reply to: Latest MKK, Zhuk-MSE and -MSFE news #2672043
    plawolf
    Participant

    You got a link to the actual report? I was expecting major news on a new MKK order as the current batch of 24 planes appear to be fulfilled.

    The order pattern has changed now from 38 planes in two years (19 planes per year) to 24 planes per year in one order.

    The orders may be smaller but the output is higher.

    read it in the magazine. it wasnt nearly as detailed on the tests as your article, the only thing of importance is the mentioning of the number of planes ordered and the expected delivery date.

    since i didnt buy the mag, i think it would be pushing the ‘fair use’ rules to breaking point to re-write the article and post it here. 😮 😉 sorry.

    plawolf
    Participant

    Yeah, heard they were flying like 600 to 800 hours a year with them.. Since they were Su-30s, I expect them to have performed aerobatics in massive extent, not just smooth trips around the globe.

    well its not like western AFs are know for nursing their planes, yet we dont hear of problems like this.

    the PLAAF example, if true, is an even more unacceptable incident where a brand new flanker crashed on its first fight killing the crew. 😡

Viewing 15 posts - 1,996 through 2,010 (of 4,042 total)