Interesting assessment here of J-20 and its future export potential…
http://www.aerosocietychannel.com/aerospace-insight/2011/01/not-so-hidden-dragon-j-20-assessed/
Is the real competition to the J-20, the PAK-FA, rather than the F-22/F-35?
I think the Russians can rest easy at night, the J20 won’t be offered for export anytime soon, if ever.
Just look at the J10, has that been exported yet even after the J20 has flown?
I think the J10/JF17 model sets a good example for any future Chinese stealth exports.
They will cut their teeth on the J20, and then, after the J20 has entered mass production with all the kinks and bugs fixed, the design team will apply the lessons and technologies they learned with the J20 to quickly develop a cheaper, less capable fighter that will be offered for export, and may also be purchased by the PLA in larger numbers than they could with the J20.
It will be a very similar path to what the US has done with the F22 and F35.
China, like the US, has an economy strong enough that they can choose not to export their best wares to fund current and future projects.
While I would be happy to respond to the points you have made, a moderator has ‘fired a shot across our bows’, so we will have to bide by his decision. I will bow out of this thread with the words that the great newspaper writer H. L. Mencken used to send (on a pre-printed card) to in response to letters from outraged readers:
Dear Sir or Madam:
You may be right.
Yours sincerely
Classy move mate. 😉
Plawolf there are a lot similarties between the MiG 1.44 and the J 20 but its not an exact copy, its a new aircraft in its own right. Just look at the top down view of both and tell me you see no similarities.
The J20 has more similarities with the F22 and F35 than the Mig1.44.
People will see what they want to see. The Mig itself is far more similar in configuration to the J10 than J20.
As I said before, people will see what they want to see, and those claiming Mig1.44 ‘influences’ on the J20 reveal more about themselves than any deep insight into the J20.
Wtf did this Mig1.42 connection come from? The only thing similar is that they both had canards.
So we have people who claim the J20 is Mig1.42 ‘influenced’ when they look so completely different and have no established links, yet claim that the PAF-FA has nothing to do with the Flanker despite a very similar design philosophy and the fact that the same company made both.
Its just more evidence that people will see what they want and that baseless personal opinion is utterly worthless.
What is the angle (up & down) at which an AWACS scans? This might be it’s Achilles heel in the form of a plunging AAM attack.
A lofted missile will present a fairly large RCS to the radar during its climb phase no? At 150km you would expect a BVRAAM to have a fairly high chance of being picked up as it presents its side body don’t you think?
As far as jamming the inbound AAM, that is what HOJ and especially the JDRADM’s HARM (not to mention IIR seeker) functions are for.
Spear and shield mate. How many times have marketing departments claimed some new feature will wtfpawn everything else in existence? Have yet to see it materialize in the real world.
New missiles will have an edge over older systems they were designed to take out, but it won’t be long till new systems and software are developed to counter the new seekers.
With ASEA radars and the power behind the emitters, what are the chances an AWACS would be able to aim a powerful enough beam onto the seekerhead to outright fry the sucker?
Something to bare in mind is that just launching a missile does not automatically equal a destroyed AWACS, especially using ARH missiles. Remember that even the F22s AESA radar has a capable EW function. And I would expect a modern AWACS to have something similar but more powerful and probably able to function for a useful length of time before frying the radar itself.
With that in mind, I do not think AWACS are quite that vulnerable. The likes of the Mica IR might be a different story, but probably not that relevant till the French have a stealth to get it close enough to an AWACS undetected.
Also, given how powerful AWACS radars are and the fact that the top end ones have continous 360 radar coverage, what are the chances of an AAM approaching undetected until it’s within seeker range?
Pardon the confusion, but after reading the first page, i got lost. I haven’t followed this thread closely. Last time i remember J-7 Hotdog said that the chinese name of the J-20 was “Wei Long” (nice name and suitable too). Has it changed??
That’s just something some random came up with, no official name has been given yet.
And down my local camera club there are those that don’t ‘rate’ Nikon cameras and shoot with nothing but Canon, while at the other end of the bar they don’t ‘rate’ Canon but swear by their Nikons. That’s life, as the saying goes. But these are only opinions, and they don’t tell me much useful information. Watch the professional photographers at an air show and you are likely to see both brands in widespread use.
That’s comparing apples to oranges my friend. The choice of a camera between two comparable brands is down to personal preference and taste. My total lack of faith in Jane’s Chinese reporting is based on their long and consistent habit of making many many gaffs and mistakes, and posting things that clearly looks highly suspect based solely on ‘Russian sources’.
A better analogy would be comparing a Canon or Nikon to a cheap knock-off brand with a long history of getting things wrong.
There is a lot more high and medium-level contact between rival companies that you may realise. At trade shows, senior executives can be found dining in each other’s chalets, visiting each other’s exhibition stands, and taking away the other’s guy’s printed material. Senior company engineers east and west also meet each other at international conferences. The last time I met MiG designer Rostislav Belyakov, he was dining with one of the leading US fighter manufacturers. And I’m sure that went off carrying a stack of their technical brochures.
And you think any of those people got to where they are by being careless or stupid enough to reveal state secrets to the competition? Even trade secrets are jealously guarded.
Contacts only give each other so much, and the J20 and PAK-FA are direct competitors. What you are suggesting is akin to the heads of Nissan and Ford/GM giving each other the in’s and out’s of each other’s next generation flagship car designs. It makes no sense to do so, and it just doesn’t happen.
So it’s quite possible that Russian companies could have legitimately acquired drawings and photos of the J-20 by any of these routes. Illegitimate routes for this sort of information also exist, of course.
Possible, but highly unlikely, what possible reason do the Chinese have to release such information to the Russians? If a suggestion doesn’t pass the ‘why do it’ test, 9 times out of 10, that theory is incorrect. Rational and intelligent people only do things for a reason when it comes to business and careers.
And talk of illegitimate routes is pure speculation and completely unverifiable. One could argue with just as much credibility that the Chinese deliberately left a bunch of fake and misleading documents for the Russians to find. Once we start down that road I foresee the quality of discussion to nosedive. Lets best steer clear of such murky waters shall we?
Then I wonder where Russia’s Agat design bureau is getting the funding for so many new missile seekers, and why Chinese air-to-air BVR missile seekers closely resemble AGAT designs?
And this is relevant because? You will also find Russian defense contractors sourcing components and subsystems from Chinese manufactures at various fairs and trade shows. So what?
“a minimum amount of consultation?” Integration of a modern turbofan is unlikely to be trouble free unless you get the engine maker fully involved. The F-14, F-15 and F-111 showed what happens if you don’t.
Well it is minimum in terms of the design work that has gone into the aircraft. But from the way some Russian sources have been milking it, you’d think they practically design the J10 themselves.
It’s not unknown for foreign contractors to talk unflatteringly about what they perceive to be a less-experienced employer. Back in the 1960s when certain rockets were showing a clear reluctance to perform in the desert skies, a colleague who worked at the Helwan facility used to swear that his Egyptian staff were totally incompetent, and if the Ha-300 fighter ever flew, it would be due largely to the skills of the expatriate staff.
And it is not unknown for the Russians to deliberately bash Chinese projects or try to take credit for things they had nothing to do with.
The most certainly made as much about the early production issues with kit-bashed J11As as they could. But looking at the finishing of the planes made, it would seem that SAC either made remarkably quick progress in getting their act together (and I personally don’t think SAC is that good to be able to make that kind of a turn around so quickly based on their past performance), or the production quality issue wasn’t quite as grave as the Russians made it out to be.
The Russians were trash talking the J11B to make it sound like a outdated knock-off Su27SK that could not possibly match what the Russians are offering, but the truth of the matter is that the J11B is far more capable than what the Russians try to make it out to be, and the reason is because the Chinese upgraded it with their own indigenous equipment instead of stuffing it it ‘copied’ Russian gear as was suggested.
Same thing with the J15 naval flanker, but that is clearly groundless since almost nothing is known about it. And it seems highly improbably that the people are SAC would be all that chummy with Sukhoi given their history.
Aside from the J10, the Russians have also tried to take credit for the JF17 by trying to link it to the cancelled Mig33, yet there has never been any remotely satisfactory evidence presented to make much of a case for that.
Contrary to popular belief, defence companies rarely ‘knock’ their rivals. It is not a productive tactic, and if exposed, could reflect badly on the company that did it.
So Sukhoi hasn’t been bad mouthing the J11B at every opportunity? And that’s just sticking to air force examples.
Hands up anyone who things that an air force with the resources to deploy fifth gen fighters will be operating them on their lonesome with no supporting assets?
If you look at a realistic combat scenario where both sides are heavily reliant on AWACS and tanker support, then the advantages of stealth really comes into its own.
EW is fast approaching the point where LPI scanning will no longer be possible as new digital receivers and more powerful processors will soon be able to detect LPI scanning if they are not able to do so already.
That means that everyone has to shut off their main radars and rely on their EW suits and other passive sensors (IRST etc) to give targeting information on any hostiles actively using their radars, and/or relying of AWACS for targeting information.
Obviously if both are relying on AWACS, having significantly lower RCS is going to be a massive help for obvious reasons.
USAF exercises has also shown that something with F22 level of RCS reduction would be able to get close enough to an enemy AWACS without being detected to get a shot off.
That is significant because now, the low RCS side could theoretically slip past your fighter screens and take out your force multipliers while effectively protecting their own against attacks by your conventional fighters.
Facing low RCS opponents with AWACS support is bad enough, but facing them without AWACS while they have AWACS is likely to be an insurmountable disadvantage.
The best way to counter stealth fighters with conventional fighters is to have missiles greater than their operating range and stand-off attack their bases from where they cannot reach you. You then send out overwhelming numbers of fighters to target their tankers and AWACS to force the fighters they have in the air to engage, and hence expose themselves. You then keep throwing fighters at them until you win through attrition or they run out of fuel.
The idea is to temporarily ground as many of their fifth gens are you could, overwhelm what they put up in the air and then move in and hammer the crap out of their grounded fighters when they are sitting targets.
Its going to be high risk and high cost, but that is the price you pay for coming to the party without the latest toys.
And that is assuming that the enemy only has a small number of air bases where they base their fifth gens. If you are looking at a large enemy fifth gen fleet widely distributed over many airfields and have significant conventional fighter back up, you are going to have to come up with a different strategy.
Since I am the person who posted what he claims is ‘idiotic BS’, I would be grateful if Mr Plawolf, (a self-confessed ‘aggresive member’ [sic]) would document with facts, not opinions, any factual errors in the posting in question.
A named Jane’s journalist had discussed the J-20 with his Russian sources and had quoted their opinions. All I did was to briefly summarise, as accurately as I could, a report from a subscription-only website that most forum members are unlikely to have access to. This was done simply to add more potential information to our communal knowledge.
The only way to demonstrate that the cited Russian opinions are wrong is to produce facts that demonstrate this. For the moment, those Russian opinions may be right or may be wrong.
Since I have made only a handful of postings in this thread, I would also like Mr Plawolf to document with facts, not his own personal opinions, any statements that I have made in these that demonstrate that I am a “troll and hater”.
This morning I found an excellent passage in another forum in which the thread owner commented on some of the harsher opinions that had been expressed on a controversial subject:
“You must remember that in the search for truth some mistakes will be made. I have to say, however, that no one has actually proved that those ideas discussed here were wrong, even if they think they have proved them wrong.”
Well firstly, my comments were never directly at you, apologies if you thought they were. There were a lot a negative comments posted, and I was not petty enough to keep score and just used a few examples ottomh.
Secondly, it might be an interesting exercise to have a look at the various Jane’s ‘scoops’ from Russians sources regarding Chinese projects over the years to see how many of those ‘predictions’ actually panned out and how many turned out to be pure Russian disinformation or plain wishful thinking.
I do not rate Jane’s at all when it come to Chinese military matters, and I am far from the only one.
There is absolutely no reason whatsoever for CAC to give any Russians any inside access to what is a direct competitor to the Russian PAK-FA. The Russians had not made much to interest the Chinese for quite some time now. The last time the Chinese accepted Russian help on one of their projects was probably a minimum amount of consultation on AL31 integration on the J10, and look how some Russians sources have been milking that to make it look like they were a critical part of the J10 project. I somehow doubt CAC has overlooked or forgotten about that.
There simply is no reason why the Russians would know any more about the J20 than anyone else, and for them to claim to know what the prototypes are made of is simply not credible.
My inclusion of that piece of information is mainly because of the very great possibility that those ‘sources’ are simply doing what the Russians have been doing for years now – bashing Chinese projects any way they can as they are starting to realize that Chinese products are becoming capable enough to be a serious challenge to the very best they can offer and so they are resorting to smear tactics to try and get a advantage on any potential export deals. And Jane’s seem to not be able to learn from their past mistakes and keep airing these baseless and frequently completely wrong Russian claims.
Good luck spotting a gun door when we can’t even get a decent idea of what the weapons bay doors look like. :p
The little raised fairing on the bottom left had side of the underside which looked like a gun fairing initially head-on appears to be a small inlet for the engines. So we are back to square one on the gun’s location.
Someone should crank up the contrast on the picture with the reversed 2001. You can definitely seem some distinctive straight lines running down the centre and the left (right?) side.
If those are weapons bays, then that’s either a very nice coat of paint, or they got some impressive precision engineering tools to make the doors fit some smoothly that its so hard to tell even with decent quality photos.
yep that’s what i said:D
except i am firmly in the “this is a precursor to the real thing” camp.
I reckon there is no way they would have released the aircraft to the world like this if they weren’t already very sure that it would fly and that it wouldn’t give away too much.
Way too much face to be lost in both cases!
still this aircraft looks great from underneath !
The change in engines is quite interesting if that is indeed what happened.
It would be pretty unprecedented for a prototype to have its engines changed to a different design days before the first flight.
Given how cautious the Chinese have always been, it would also be a major break with the norm to use a relatively unproven domestic engine for a first flight test, especially one so open!
I would suggest that this is the first flight with a domestic engine. It is very likely that the prototype has already flown with AL31s prior to this.
One thing is certain, there is no space to store fuel in eighter the wings or the stabz, so i’ll guess all is stored in the body airframe.
Wonder how much volume it have and where the internal tanks are installed?
Why not the wings? The vertical stabilizers I would agree with, but the wings are not that thin, and it would be strange to say the least to not use that space for fuel storage.
I was wondering how long it would be before the Russian fanboys start to try and take credit for the J20. :rolleyes: