plawolfThe J10 is now officially used by the August 1st display team of the PLAAF. Just wait till they next display and we will get a real good idea of what the J10 is capable of.
plawolfMaybe FC-1 and CY-1 situation is same as JJ-9 and L-15.
L-15 suppose to be superior in terms of everything from FBW, LERX and a turbo fan engine but a more expensive price tag. Instead PLAAF opt for JJ-9 for it full domestic and cheaper price tag compare to L-15.
Shall CY-1 able to go under 15-20 million USD. It might favour PLAAF to adopt it since engine will not be a problem becos of WP-14/WP13.
Only the PLAAF does not need a cheap low end fighter as they still have hoards of J7s, most of which are quite new and will last a good few years.
If the PLAAF had any real interest, they could have funded a few prototypes and then adapted the J7 line to make these instead of closing it down if the plane had real merit.
Its an interesting idea, but its around a decade too late.
plawolfSo who is funding it?
No one, and there lies the problem for the company.
plawolfBut the Flanker IS bigger then the Eagle. Fact. :p
plawolfThe drones are huge in first pic. Seems like it would be able to carry missiles. Chinese first UCAV?
China has had armed UAVs for a while now, but most are pretty basic and nothing to write home about. These look like they are optimized for recon. If they wanted them to carry weapons, a turbofan would be the preferred choice, and the body would be fatter, to accommodate weapons bays.
plawolfPosted by Xinhui @ CDF : New UAV
Has some similarities with the one below –
Thats some awesome pictures! Looks like China’s UAV programmes are even further along then I hoped.
plawolfNothing in what you say / assume proves that J10B is not the version of the J10 that PAF will get in 2014-15.
What you do have — and these are FACTS not ASSUMPTIONS — is PAF officials saying that the J10 is available to them (even though you think it is not for export) — You have the CAS saying that after looking at this fighter – Pakistan has asked for various improvements which China is actioning – you have the CAS specificaly saying that AESA radar is one of the requirements —— and then what you have is pictures of the J10B, which has obvious improvements over the J10A, some very obvious features of the PAF specific JF-17, most agree a redesign aimed at carrying AESA radar and you have no denial of PAF statements from China.
Now I’m not claiming all this adds upto definitive proof that the J10B is the FC-20 – but it certainly looks that way to me.
Thats rich coming from you. You ask for facts when you have failed to provide a single shred of it yourself and also don’t seem to recognize a fact when it hits you in the face.
For the nth time. China has never before exported their most capable domestic fighter until they had something better. That is a FACT.
What the CAS said is just a comment that, I have already explained explicitly multiple times, could be interpreted to mean any number of things and proves nothing.
As for PAF not getting the best from China — when they got their F-7’s did Pakistan not request and get a host of improvements over baseline PLAAF examples operating at the time. Same goes for A5’s – look it up.
Actually, you look it up kid. Firstly, the J7 and Q5 were not considered to be China’s most capable domestic fighter, the J8 was. And secondly, China did not sell Pakistan anything better then what their own forces used because the PAF F7s and Q5s were empty shells that the PAF added western kit to, and it was that which made them better.
You ask me not to be clever and then say that the only reasson you can’t give a single example of China refusing to sell something to Pakistan is because that all must have happened behind ‘closed doors’- how convenient.
Funny how PAF getting FC-20’s (J10Bs in my view) is very much public knowledge – using your logic, shouldn’t they have asked for these behind ‘closed doors’ and got approval before announcing — especialy given the apparant long history of Chinese refusals behind closed doors.
Again, a classic case of someone not able to distinguish fantasy from reality.
I don’t see and ‘FC20s’, whatever they may be, in PAF colours. Do you? Yet you are treating it as if it something that has already happened.
You also seem to have a serve case of having blinders on, as you keep ignoring the facts I have stated that does not suit your wishes. Such as the many examples I gave before where what Pakistan got from China being clearly inferior to equivalent kit China produces for itself, not to mention the huge number of systems that Pakistan would clearly benefit greatly from having, yet does not operate despite the fact that China has been operating those systems for many years.
Finally, if you cannot grasp the concept that nations would not bicker in public like a couple of teenage attention whores and might keep embarrassing news regarding a close ally out of the world press, then I am clearly wasting my time with someone who should spend less time talking and more time learning.
plawolfWith all due respect plawolf, I would like to add couple of points. Back in 2004, the then CAS for PAF Kaleem Sadaat told Alan Warnes in an interview for AFM that J-10 was available to PAF (sorry I dont remember the month but if im not mistaken it was between May-Oct and it was the lead article on JF-17) . A year or so later, the political clearance was given for the official negotiations (to purchase up to 36 J-10) to start. A number of very high ranking & serving military officials from Pakistan have clearly stated that PAF will purchase F-10/FC-20 at sometime point in future. In the meantime I have never seen any chinese official ever contradicting these statements emerging from Pakistan. Unless one divulges into conspiracy theories such as ‘its a (chinese/Pakistani) pressure tactic vis-a-vis F-16 from US’, I think it is safe and rather logical to assume that J-10 is already available (at least to PAF) for export.
As for what version PAF would get, that’s anyone’s guess. China has its own policies and Pakistan has it own. But the two have cordial enough relations that China does allow Pakistan to request/make its own modifications to the products she purchases. As I said before, if a chinese alternative (that fits PAF requirements) is available then I dont doubt that PAF would go for it for the simple reason that it would provide the biggest bang for the buck.
So if the J10 was available in 2004, why do we not see any in PAF colours even today? Is it normal to secure a deal a decade before the planes are supposed to be delivered?
There have been consistent reports, backed up by other evidence I have already mentioned before, that the PLAAF has suspended J10 orders for the time being. The most likely explanation being that they are waiting for the J10B.
Now, if the J10 was available as early back as 2004, does this not strike you as a perfect opportunity for the PAF to get some orders in and be able to take delivery of J10s probably before now instead of waiting another 5, 6 years?
Even if the PAF wanted to wait for the J10B, do you think CAC would pass up this opportunity and not try to secure some export orders from elsewhere?
The fact that they are not even trying to market the J10 should give you a pretty good indication of its status wrt exports.
Its always been China’s national defense policy to never export their most capable domestic fighter.
If the J10 has become available to the PAF, it is because the PLAAF has, or will very soon have access to something better. That something better looks almost certain to be the J10B. Thus if China offers J10s for export, it wont be the J10B.
They might throw in the superficial mods like IRST and DIS, but the real difference between the J10A and J10B, the radar and avionics suit, will not be available for export. And things are likely to stay that way as much of the systems used in the J10B are also intended for the XXJ.
plawolfSorry for continuing to believe something because ‘he said so’ its just that ‘he’ happens to be a CAS and I think that perhaps ‘he’ might be in a position to know more about it than you or I. What a CAS says is an assumption – but what you say without any source for backup is fact?
In one of his interviews (in book by Alan Warnes) the CAS says that he wants PAF’s version of the J10 to have avionics / equipment which is modern enough to serve for 2 decades and an AESA radar — so by your logic China is developing another dumbed down AESA equiped J10 for export parralel to the one we’ve been seeing pictures of? Any evidence at all to back this ‘theory’ up.
And where exactly has anyone said anything about the J10B being what the CAS was talking about? That is entirely your assumption, and I have already showed you how the same words can easily be interoperated to mean something completely different to what you want it to mean.
Don’t try to be clever and pretend any official in any country has ever said anything that backs up your theory that the J10 version the PAF hopes to get will be the J10B.
China is not developing an export version of the J10 because, currently, the J10 is not for export. CAC is busy working on the J10B and XXJ and that is where the majority of their efforts are going to.
If the PAF is going to buy these things – you can be sure that they will want the best version. China just paid half the cash to develop a fighter (JF-17) specificaly for Pakistan’s needs, they gave them credit to buy the first 50, they gave them cheap credit to buy AWACS, they are bankrolling their satelite efforts, There are plenty of allegations that they have even shared sensitive technologies with this ally — and you think when PAF asks them to buy the best version of the J10 they are going to say no?? Do you have any examples of where Pakistan has wanted to buy something from China and they refused??
One must admire the degree of logic bending that must of occurred to make the above bundle of statements fit together.
Claim 1: PAF will only buy the best and not accept anything less. The implication being that the best is also the most expensive.
Claim 2: Pakistan gets generous loan deals from China to buy things.
How in the world could you go from here to claim 3, that China will give Pakistan whatever it wants?
Claim 1 & 2 establishes it quite clearly that Pakistan gets the deals it does from China because China chooses to go out of its way to help Pakistan. That is China’s choice, Pakistan has no power to compel China to do anything it does not want to do.
If China does not want to release something, then thats just tough luck if Pakistan wants it.
Notice how everything Pakistan gets from China is never as good as the equipment the PLA is using. Be it JF17 v J10, 053 v 054A, Al Khalid V Type99G, KJ200 v KJ2000 etc. How does that fit in with your claim that Pakistan will accept nothing but the best from China?
Since China is in effect bankrolling much of Pakistan’s weapons purchases, if China was willing to provide the credit and grant a generous enough repayment package, do you think The Pakistani military will say no to the likes of J10s, Songs/Mings subs, KJ2000, Type 054A, Type 99Gs, latest PLA cruise missiles or SAMs if they were offered?
You don’t hear about China turning requests for those weapons down because such request would have been made behind closed doors, and an rejection would remain secret as China has no interest in embarrassing Pakistan.
China will try its best to make sure Pakistan can defend itself, but there are limits to how far even China is willing to go to be a good friend.
plawolfGoogle is your friend. The J8 and Su15 link has been discussed to death several times already, and I’m pretty sure that are old threads in this very forum that cover this topic in some detail.
The J8II and Su15 link is non-existence and is only made by those making superficial comparisons of the general shape. There has never been any shred of believable evidence linking the two, and the timeframe of their development makes it even more improbably since the USSR and PRC were effectively on a war footing with each other when these planes came out.
There is, however, a well established link between the J8II and Mig23, where China obtained at least one example of the Flogger from Egypt and copied the intake design onto the J8I to make the J8II.
plawolfAll I would say is that in my view – and nobody else has to agree with it — based on what the PAF CAS has said, based on Chengdu /CATICS close relationship with the PAF, history of soft loans, history of military co-operation, ——- the upgraded version that Pakistan is talking about getting in 2014 is most likely this J10B (or whatever it is called). For all I know / care the PLAAF may already have inducted 150 of these upgraded versions before 2014
Again, you miss the point and make assumptions based on nothing.
The PAF and CAC can get as chummy as you like, but its Chinese national defense policy that is the only thing that matters. And that policy is to not allow the most advanced and/or capable domestic fighter for export until the PLAAF has something better.
The only thing that will trump the J10B is the XXJ, and you would need to be very optimistic to think it will be even near operational status in 2014/15.
You also don’t seem to realize what makes the J10B better then the current A model, and thats the radar and avionics package, which is claimed to be at least 1 generation ahead of what the PLAAF currently fields.
The modifications to the airframe are only the most superficial and obvious parts of the improvement, the real change is under the skin.
That means even if the Chinese offer a J10 with DSI, it does not automatically make that a J10B.
Hell, the J10A airframe may well have better performance over the B model at certain speeds.
Slap the new IRST on the A and you could well have a better fighter.
You dismiss the above as assumptions – and dismiss what the PAF CAS says as just for public consumption. Did he ring you and tell you he was saying it just for public consumption or are you the one making ‘assumptions’.
I have already given good reasons why I am skeptical of the interpretation that this ‘modified’ FC20 alluded to by PAF officials is the J10B.
All you can come up in support of that assumption is ‘because he said so’.
plawolfYES. PAF officials have repeatedly said that they have asked for various upgrades to the J10 before they buy – and that China is on with these – and that first deliveries will be 2014-15 –this is what the CAS of PAF has stated a number of times -The J10B or whatever you call it – is the only upgraded version of the J10 that we know of – Not quite a ‘Pakistani fanboy’s wet dream’
Thats a load of wishful thinking based on nothing.
The PAF, if it gets a J10, will get a different version to what the PLAAF operates. Even if its the same airframe, it will have a completely different radar and avionics package. Thats just the way it works. It would not be much of a stretch if someone want to call it an ‘upgrade’ for the sake of domestic public consumption.
Your argument is based entirely on words put out in the press for the sake of public consumption and unfounded assumptions on your part.
My reasoning is based on well established and consistent past behavior, standard national security procedures and plain common sense.
As for soft loans – how is Pakistan buying the first 50 JF-17’s? or ships for the navy ?- or AWACS? — all soft loans and credit. Perhaps thats all ‘Pakistani fanboy’s wet dream’ also.
Well, you kinda made my point I guess. You are so fixated with your wishful thinking you cannot grasp the significance of a point even when it has been highlighted for you.
Why is Pakistan getting all this hardware on soft loans? Its because they can’t afford to pay for it any other way, so the Chinese government is paying on their behalf now, which Pakistan will repay years down the line at well below market interest rates.
That pretty much rules out a financial motive because who do you think CAC value more? The PAF or the PLAAF?
Chengdu is a Chinese defense contractor, first, foremost and exclusively or not at all if the Chinese government so wishes it. That means their loyalties and efforts also fall in that order.
The PLAAF does not make press releases about their specific plans, but there have been enough information leaked through the usual channels to make it abundantly clear that the J10B is a priority PLAAF project.
What more, there has been consistent rumors that the J10 production rate has dropped off significantly recently, and that is supported by the fact that there has not been a new J10 regiment spotted for some time.
Yet the PLAAF has found the airframes to equip the August 1st aerobatics team with J10As.
Does that all not indicate a pretty conclusive picture of what is happening or do I literally have to join the dots and paint a pretty picture?
plawolfI suspected that the upgraded version of the J10 was targeted for export……….
“Given that the JF-17 has been in service in China and Pakistan for a number of years and is a mature programme, it is being given first priority,” the source adds.
Which pretty much proves this source has no idea what he’s talking about. Since when has the JF17 even completed testing? Never mind claiming to have been in service with anyone for years or is anything close to a mature programme?:rolleyes:
That pretty much rubbishes everything else this ‘source’ has to say.
What he is suggesting makes zero sense.
What possible incentive has China to put a fighter more advanced and capable then their best on the world market before their own forces are equipped with them? And to do this by giving out soft loans to the buyer? It makes no sense strategically, financially or any way you care to look at it from. Sounds like a Pakistani fanboy’s wet dream to me.
The successful development of the J10B could very well make the J10 available for export, but that will almost certainly only be the J10A model, and thats only because the PLAAF now have the J10B to play with.
Hell, unless the buyers want to wait several years until CAC has met the PLAAF’s order for J10Bs, their J10As will very likely be refurbished ex-PLAAF J10As. They might get some of the new features like IRST, new HUD etc thrown in during the refurb, but China is not going to release the new radar or integrated avionics suit until they have developed an export version of them.
China never sells even the same version of their best fighters as what they are using until a more capable version or model is close to reaching operational status. Thats been the standard defense policy since China started selling fighters and there is no reason to change that.
plawolfI think the Klub has got the right idea. A pretty conventional subsonic main stage boosting a supersonic KV. All you have to do is redesign the missile to maximize stealth and you have something that has all the advantages of both schools of thought with little drawbacks.
Such a missile would be light enough for most fighters to carry in good numbers and cheap enough to spam. They will have decent range for their size, and give the defender very little warning. The once within detection range, it can ditch the main stage and go supersonic for the kill to minimize reaction time of the point defences even more. And if you spam them then its as close to an assured kill as you are likely to get.
plawolfIf the pilots are ok, chances are this crash had nothing to do with the terrain as you simply won’t get a chance to even think about ejecting if something went horribly wrong during nap of the earth flight in complex terrain.
This in turn means the crash had nothing to do with pilots being unfamiliar with the new terrain, and the problem most likely happened quite high up.
Besides, didn’t the RAF learn their lesson about low level penetration attacks during Desert Storm?
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