Sorry, your propaganda won’t work on me. Nor does it seem to be working on the majority…………….
Do you even know what the word means? Seems like the level of thought going into your posts have been dropping off a cliff. :rolleyes:
Funny, the Chinese Supporter of the Forum seem to have no problem speculating on the two PLAN Carriers. With virtually no facts to support there size, shape, design, purpose, etc. etc. etc. Yet, I can’t even throw out a hypothetical counter from Japan or South Korea???
Well thats either a sign of shocking ignorance of key relevant facts or a very poor excuse.
Not only have there been senior PLA figures publicly laying the PR and diplomatic groundwork for China to build carriers (reminds anyone of a similar announcement regarding a certain overseas deployment of PLAN assets?), but China has bought three ex-soviet carriers to study, and there was an article by an influential newspaper with good connections in China explicitly stating that China plans to build carriers which you yourself posted here. Add to that all the related stories of carrier landing gears being delivered and Su33 orders, all of which have been posted or mentioned in this very thread.
And you have the cheek to rate your utterly baseless fantasies about SK and Japan magically being able to double the size of LHPs and turn them into carriers ‘pretty easily’?
What nonsense. :rolleyes:
As for containing China…………its hard to feel China is being open and honest about its intentions. When it gets a Carrier from Ukrainian by flat out lying about its purpose. Unless you really believe they planned on making a Casino out of it in the first place! Really, its just like the old Cold War / Communist Days of years gone by………Just more secrets and deception!:eek:
Oh give us a break with this BS mock outrage and double standards.
Like anyone has ever been so saintly. I guess the US missile defense shield is targeted at ‘rouge states’ and their handful of missiles that can’t even reach the US and no-one else. Or that secret CIA rendition flights of suspects to foreign allies for the express purpose of being tortured or worse is perfectly transparent and ethically sound, or that the US has never fragrantly broken international laws and violated the sovereignty of other nations for military espionage.
The list can be as long as anyone cares to make it. So enough of this shameless posturing and stick to the facts.
You were comparing hypothetical future small Japanese carriers with hypothetical future larger Chinese carriers? Why? What’s the point of that? :confused:
Because he doesn’t care about what is actually happening, just desperate to invent evidence to support his delusions about everybody working to contain China and ready to come rushing to India’s aid when India decide to finally avenge 1962.
Best thing to do just ignore him because he will just spew nonsense based on ultra-rightwing paranoia websites like newsmax given half a chance.
lets see, India cut the first steel for their carrier in 2005 and expect it to launch in 2010.. and yet that’s not ambitious and beyond their capabilities
Haven’t you heard? “India is a democracy, ’nuff said.” :rolleyes:
In a rare departure from normality I find myself leaning more towards PLAWolf’s position here.
I think I may need glasses. Jonesy agreeing with me? What has the world come to these days? 😀
Much has been made about how the ‘French knew what they were doing and still stuffed it up’. That almost implies that the French were somehow suprised to find that the CdeG was a bit lemony when she was completed. They weren’t. They knew that they were building a very compromised design as soon as the political decision to go nuclear was foisted on them and they realised what kind of installed power budget they were looking at. Essentially they did the best they could with an almost impossible set of design criteria to satisfy – garbage in garbage out as they say. The one thing it wasnt was a suprise though!
Very informative, its a refreshing change to see some facts being stated instead of vague generalizations. A good example to set for everyone, myself included.
Returning to the China context Distiller makes the crucial point – what are these carriers to do?. Soviet/Russian doctrine was almost for the carrier to be a very long range area AAW vessel protecting forward deployed fleet units with powerful shipboard air search radars controlling high endurance CAP fighters in a very active area defence stance. This type of vessel can be very much simpler than a multirole fleet carrier as it doesnt need to support high sortie rates, have voluminous air ordnance magazines and handling systems and strike planning capabilities. If the Chinese limit their first attempts at carriers to this kind of forward support role, and dont try for a Nimitz straight out of the gate, then there is no reason why they cant get useful vessels in the water. They wont be competing with the USN with these ships but then they arent going to be doing that for decades anyway.
Very good analysis, and I think that is exactly what the PLAN will do here.
I do not see China wishing to invade anyone halfway across the world anytime soon, so the carriers would be used primarily for protection of China’s shipping lanes and maybe to strike at a few high-value, high-significance targets. But the bread and butter of the carrier would be fleet protection, so all those shinny new DDGs and FFGs would be able to travel the world more safely.
I see the biggest areas where the PLAN still needs development as its ASW capabilities. Ideally they should develop a dedicated ASW FFG or even DDG, as I think that their new ships, together with the new carriers, should have air defense covered pretty well.
In any future war, the biggest threat to Chinese surface ships will be subs, not hostile airpower.
You are talking apples and oranges here……….As the US had several shipyards large enough to build Carriers. Unlike today when we only have just one! Further, the technology to build carriers was very similar to excisting ships of the day…………That said, its not that we could match similar feats today. Just that Super Carriers would require much more time to get up to speed….
Ah really? So are you saying that the production time it takes to produce each individual ship remained the same from before America entered WWII to the end of the war?
It doesn’t matter how many times you repeat the same comments it’s not going to change reality.
Well, how about we have a look at reality then?
CAD is a tool and subject to the skills of the users.
So from that, I take it you are asserting that China in 2004-8, is still not able to match France’s skill in the use of CAD in 1985-9. Care to provide some factual evidence to back up this claim?
You’re the one who’s offering nothing but the mantra, “China has been studying…blah, blah, blah.” Carriers ain’t frigates and there’s a heck of a lot more that goes into building a carrier than looking at what others have done. If the other countries who have a history of fixed wing naval aviation have had glitches, so will China
The above is the only mantra being repeated around here.
France’s ‘history of fixed wing aviation’ is largely meaningless in this context since France had not designed and built carriers for more then 30 years, since the Clemenceau class, before CdG. While they might have accumulated a wealth of operational knowledge and a huge wish-list of what they would like in a future carrier, that in no way translates into the technological knowledge one would need to actually design and build a carrier.
Had France studied carrier designs as long as China did, hell, even if they had just established a realistic design goal as per Jonesy’s post, then the CdG would not have taken as long to build and would probably have suffered from far fewer problems.
I really doubt that they’re going to build something way out of their experience zone in the same time it takes a Newport News to build something they’ve been cranking out over the past 30 years.
And I’m sure the above us based on facts instead of baseless and outdated assumptions.
Wit all all due respect you are taking personal offense when none is being offered. You very well may be right that China can pull this off, and good luck to them. But the argument against China pulling this off as you argue it is not comparing Chinese capabilities or abilities to the West. It is simply facts based on fact and experience.
Perhaps your position would be improved if you followed your own sage advice and looked into some facts about modern China first.
You seem to discount the experience angle at every turn. I think that is frankly coming off as a little arrogant. Yes China has made and continues to make great strides. But to believe with so much conviction that China can pull off what no other nation has been able to pull off since the end of World War II smacks of cultural arrogance on YOUR PART, not on ours.
I think that view is based on a lack of study into the relevant information.
I have set out a fairly detailed point by point rational for why I believe it is possible for China to built two carriers in 6 years. So far, instead of trying to dispute those points with facts, all the detractors are merely repeating the mantra that China simply cannot do something the west has not managed before.
Who is the ones being arrogant here?
[B]If, America really wanted to, do you think it can’t churn out carrier far faster then its current rate? Say in the event of a major war?
At peace time, construction rates are set by the contractual conditions as much as they are set by technical ability.
[/B]
Well, if the US could cut a years time off to build a Nimtz Class Carrier it would be remarkable. As the ships are so large and complex…………Remember, even the US only has one yard big enough to build such massive vessels. So, just adding more workers gets you little…..[/QUOTE]
Perhaps you would care to refresh your memory about your own history. What was the average construction time of warships before and near the end of WWII in America?
Do you think people are working on those carriers night and day? Those docks don’t build ships when all the works have gone home. You can at least cut construction time by 1/3 to 1/2 by doubling the manpower and doing 24h shifts. That is the only way you would reach a point where adding menpower would not speed things up much more. Until you reach that point, there is always room for improvement.
I have no doubt that China would like some of that 20 year old technology. We aren’t talking about HDTV’s or i Pods here…………..Regardless, I don’t need names or sarcasm to get my point across.:p
If you do not see the hypocrisy in you last couple of posts, then you are even more far gone then I first thought.
The bottom line for me and most people who know anything about shipbuilding in general and Carrier construction in particular is that Carriers are next to atomic powered submarines the most complex ship afloat. Nobody doubt’s China’s abilities to field a carrier force eventually but anything less than a decade to build would be unrealistic. Even France, a country with experience building and operating carriers for decades cound not do it under a decade, and even then the ship had significant teething troubles.
Its funny you used the nuclear sub example. If you had taken my earlier advice and had a look at the rate at which the Chinese and turning out SSNs and SSBNs, then you might have formed a different opinion.
China can throw virtually unlimited resources, manpower and funding at the problem, and they very well might, but there is no shortcut for experience.
Nonsense. You act as if China has never built a ship before.
Ship design is one thing, but ship building is very standardized. Warships and civilian ships are designed differently, but when they are being built, most of the skills and equipment used for one is directly transferable to the other. Designers go to great lengths to ensure this to cut costs and construction times.
You say that you do not wish to belittle China, but that is pretty much what you are doing by not learning about the facts and applying outdated views and inaccurate models when trying to judge China’s capabilities. Because answer truthfully, how do you form an expectation of what China is capable of? Did you look at what the Chinese have achieved in the relevant field before and extrapolating that to this project, or did you merely take a look at what western nations have managed in the past and decide that China would be lucky to match that let alone surpass it?
Not for those types of ships. But then again, when it comes to building experience, the situation with (modern) commercial shipbuilding is quite the reverse from that with naval shipbuilding. Just look at how French Mistral and Italian Cavour and Spanish BPE are being built.
Those were just examples to illustrate a point. You can compare the construction time of the 054As compared to the British Type 45 if you wish.
The most experienced carrier builder (USA) takes 4.5 years for a carrier. With the exception of the midget-carrier the Spanish built for Thailand (which was delivered barely complete, with a lot of projected weapon systems etc not installed), there are no shorter build-times for modern postwar carrier, whether CTOL or STOBAR or STOVL. Assuming this for new PLAN carriers is optimistic, even when factoring in general shipbuilding expertise.
Just because something has not been done faster before is no indication that it is not possible to do it faster.
Just look at recent history and you will see countless records broken and set by China and I have lost track of the number of times the neigh-sayers here have insisted something can’t be done or can’t be done for decades only to be proven wrong.
If America really wanted to, do you think it can’t churn out carrier far faster then its current rate? Say in the event of a major war?
At peace time, construction rates are set by the contractual conditions as much as they are set by technical ability.
His remarks stated obvious facts. The French with State of the Art Technology and Vast Experience with Aircraft Carriers. Still suffered serious problems nonetheless. So, to take into question that China can build two very similar ships within the same time frame. Is hardly inmaterial…………………Then instead of providing a respectful counterpoint. You throw names and sarcasm……..maybe your the juvenile in the group???
Please get a grip. State of the art 20 years ago is household these days. Either you have problems coming to grips with that simple fact, or you need to disguise your personal bias better.
No I would not take the European yards experience as any benchmark either. There is only one place and one yard that has been continiously building Carriers (the most advanced, large and complex by the way) and that is Newport News. No one else can say that they have had a carrier on the slip for every day since World War II. They can.
And are any of the builders from WWII still plying their trade or any of the lessons learnt from WWII still of any consequence today?
An illustrious history is meaningless without context.
The efficiency savings from experience is a bell shaped curve. It does up steeply, but levels off and will even drop in some cases if you plot it against unit of output per unit of currency spent on wages.
There is only so much time experience will allow you to save when you cut a piece of steel or make a wield. Having more people on the job and/or people working longer on the job will make a hell of a difference.
American yards might have more experience, but if they employ 10,000 workers for work 9-5, and someone else employs 15,000, 20,000, or 30,000+ works of the same or slightly lower skill on the same job and working 8-6, do you think the two yards would be turning out ships at the same rate?
If you have been to China and witnessed first hand how things are done there, you would quickly realize that many basic assumptions need to be changed when trying to calculate how fast they can make things over their.
There is nothing magical about more people working harder and longer being about to do things faster.
I cast no aspersions against anyone here, including, China, Italy, Spain, France the UK and Russia. But none of these nations have had the same kind of continious experience as the Americans and their less complex and smaller ships have taken at least as long or longer than any Nimitz class takes to be built.
If you look at the Chinese shipbuilding industry’s recent record, especially with regard to the 054A FFGs and nuclear subs (which are harder to track and count) you might wish to reconsider those remarks.
The first time out a decade is about right to build one of these things considering all of the lessons that can only be learned by doing.
And what underlying assumptions did you use to come to that timetable? Are they accurate?
CAD was utilised in design process for the CdG . Didn’t prevent it from having design problems. But apparently in China CAD can mysteriously overcome design faults. 😀
Yet more thoughtless flippantry. I’d ask you to consider the effects such juvenile outbursts are having on your reputation, but then that would merely be a waste of time.