plawolfAny Chinese carrier group will very DEFINITELY risk getting sunk by a torpedo. The carrier is a primary battlespace control asset. It doesnt work where dominance is already assured…..its whole reason to exist is to push that dominated battlespace out farther. Any idea to the contrary is utter nonsense.
The choice, and arrangement, of the Chinese carrier (if the current carrier is to serve as an operational unit and not just a training platform) suggests a continuation of the Gorshkov doctrine of forward deployed ‘strongpoint’ battlespace dominance. No Chinese carrier group will be a match for the USN equivalent for decades to come, but, left unregarded PLAN naval Flankers could provide the hardened ISTAR required to cue in long range antiship systems. Also the damage that a carrier group could do to the USN fleet train supporting their deployment doesn’t require a naval genius to work out.
The PLAN know, full well, then that a US carrier force couldn’t leave a highly mobile, robust, high-persistence, Chinese naval group in existence if it planned to intervene in a Taiwan context. With a powerful shipboard air search set plus a high persistence naval interceptor like Flanker the USN would be forced to commit serious resources, and time, to reducing or chasing off that carrier group before any approach to the oparea could be considered. If the PLAN can keep their group mobile, and hard to pin down, they’ll give the USN the same ISTAR challenges they’ve always faced playing cat and mouse across the South China Sea….which, from the Chinese side, would be a useful outcome in itself.
That carrier group will be far too useful out in blue water to be kept bottled up inshore.
The Varyag, as you say, is no match for a USN CSG, so sending it out against several is pointless. The job of causing disruption to the fleet support train will be left to the Subs, which have a far greater survivability rate.
In any Taiwan scenario, the fighter wing will likely be operating from land bases and the Varyag will serve almost like a LHD, and provide helo ASW support for PLAN tasks groups operating nearby. If they have a fixed wing carrier AWACS operational, that will also be useful.
But a handful of J15s are not going to pose enough to a threat to the USN to justify using the carrier and escorts as a sacrifice to keep the USN busy for a while.
plawolfobservations yes, but the problem is that you haven’t posted any facts. all your guesses on China-Russian agreements on Su-27 production is just conjecture. Which means, all you are doing is just making a guess on what China and Russia agreed to based on the action (or inaction) of the Russians, and what some Chinese person said what China wanted.
But in the end its just your own assumption based on some observations, and nothing from the actual contract. For all you know China could’ve wanted only 100% Chinese made flankers, which did not get through during final negotiations. So either produce a copy of the contract or stop claiming your statements as facts.
Everyone here is actually pretty mature in this thread except you. Relax, eat a pie. stop blowing up at everyone.
What nonsense. I never claimed my version was the absolute truth of what happened. I presented a perfectly logical possibility of what might have happened, which fits know facts far better. For example, SAC is not even being subtle that they are making 100% Chinese made Flankers, they even told the Russians to stop sending the kits.
Why would they do that if what they were doing was a breach of contract and illegal? China is not a mafia state and has never protected its companies when they do things clearly illegal.
If the Sukhoi case is as strong as you want to believe, why are they just whining about it instead of taking SAC to court in Russia?
And yes, please display your own maturity with such an obvious childish flamebait remark.
Grow up buddy.
plawolfassumptions are not facts. People can say anything they want, but in the end its not the actual contract’s words. You have no idea what went on in the actual negotiation between the sale, so you can’t speak on what was allowed or not allowed until you can produce proof of this contract.
So if the Chinese breached the contract as fragrantly as you want to believe, what is stopping Sukhoi starting court proceedings?
Plenty of Chinese government property to seize in Russia to use as compensation if SAC were found guilty, and if it was a clear-cut case of SAC doing something illegal, Beijing is not going to take it out on the Russians for following the law.
All things I have already said.
Ever tried actually reading what has been written and trying to understand it before making a posting? :rolleyes:
plawolfobviously you don’t have the original contract either, so you can’t claim that China is allowed to make their own copies, or whether or not the J-15 is a part of this contract.
everything else you stated us just nationalistic chest thumping to defend China, and has nothing to do with whether or not the J-15 would be useful for Russia. do I need to report you again?
So you obviously either did not read, or did not comprehend the rest of that post which sets out why I don’t think the Russians had a case since their actions speak far louder than their words.
plawolfI can see that you’re bothered by hot topic discussion especially since the J-15 looks so similar to the Su-33. but it doesn’t mean we can’t stop talking about it, its still a legitimate topic. No need to hate on the op just because you may have some insecurities about some of China’s aircrafts. Also Russia’s Su-33s are getting old so its something worth while to consider. Anyways your post has been reported, mr self professed aggressive member!
Report for what? Pointing out facts and seeing through your games? :rolleyes:
Does anyone think for a moment Russia would buy the J15? – No. There is nothing more to discuss beyond that. The Russians have the Mig29K derivatives if their Su33 need replacing. There is, and never was any justification to start a thread discussing a non-issue.
As for the rest, well.
You bringing up nonsenses about Siberia. What possible link does that have to the J15? What other reason to bring that up other than to try and upset the Russia members?
plawolfyes, pointing out China’s theft is clearly all about making us feel better. What is telling is how you can’t accept that.
As for the rest, yes, you are correct, this thread was bullocks from the start.
Unless you happen to have an original copy of the contract, you cannot know what was agreed upon.
The Chinese have been saying right from the start that the ultimate goal was a 100% Chinese made Su27 since before the original flanker deal was made. If the Russians had a problem with that, then they should never have signed the contract.
Given how backwards Chinese industry was back then, Russian attitude and misconceptions about Chinese capabilities even today, as well as the fact that having just come out of the communist system, the Russians would have no experience in commercial contracts, which after all, is a capitalist tool, I find it incredibly easy to believe that the Russians either unknowingly signed away far more rights to the Chinese then they at first realised, or that they simply did not believe that the Chinese would have the intellectual and industrial capabilities to completely indigenize the Flanker, never mind come up with something better before the type became obsolete and irrelevant, like the Mig21/J7 series.
Russia writing back then tended to take the rosy idea that China would take so long to absorb their technology that by the time they have mastered what was given to them, it will already be obsolete, and the Russians would have used Chinese money to come up with far better upgrades than what the Chinese had, so would get more Chinese money from selling those upgrades to fund future developments, and the cycle will repeat forever. Especially since China was under western weapons embargo and had no other foreign alternatives.
And that was how it went for a while, with the MKK and MK2 deals following the Su27/J11 license production.
But the Russians underestimated Chinese modernization speed, and their SKM upgrade and MK3 proposals were simply not good enough by a long margin.
The fact that the Russians were offering the Indians the MKI at around the same time would have been noted and remembered since the MK2 and MK3 were clear rip-offs in comparison to the MKI in terms of price to capabilities terms, as well as things like the Il76 fiasco.
As far as the Chinese were concerned, the Russians broke their ‘social contract’ first, so they also dispensed with the pleasantries and just treated the relationship as purely commercial by fully exercising their contractual rights.
So far, the only reaction from the Russians have been bashing of SAC’s Flanker derivatives in the press. And even those seem more aimed at trying to put off foreign buyers than anything. But tellingly, there has never even been a hint of legal proceedings, and please dispense with the, ‘oh the Russians will never get a fair trial in China’ BS. What would have been the point in signing a contract in the first place if it could never been enforced? Does anyone think for a moment Sukhoi would not sue if SAC put a Flanker up for export?
Since one of the parties is Russian, it could have been heard in a Russian court, and any judgement could have been enforced by freezing and seizing the property of the offending party inside Russia. Since SAC is state owned, that means if a Russian court found them guilty, they would have seized any other Chinese state own property and/or funds in Russia to liquidated that to pay damages to Sukhoi. All basic legal stuff.
But not only has Sukhoi not taken SAC to court, it is even willing to sell more Flankers to China. The Su33 deal fell through not because the Russians were not willing to sell on principle, but because they wanted the Chinese to buy more than what the Chinese wanted. And just last year the Russians went to China trying to sell the Su35.
That should say all there need to be said about Sukhoi’s legal position regarding the SAC J11 derivatives for the PLAAF and PLANAF.
plawolf25KM sounds ridiculously short to the point where its unbelievable. I mean glide bombs can travel further these days, and with heavy SAMs able to reach targets hundreds of km away, a 25km ARM is about 25 years obsolete these days.
plawolfAnd there is something wrong with that?
:confused:
Moggy
Not in this case per se, but where exactly is the line on such extra-judicial killings?
I just feel uneasy with people feeling its hunky dory for the US President to be able to effectively order potentially anyone in the world to be assassinated at a whim without needing any legal justification or authority for doing so.
I wonder if you would be quite so relaxed if it was the Russians or Chinese who were going about raiding houses in foreign countries of people who they don’t like and issuing ‘take no prisoners’ orders and shooting unarmed people.
I don’t shed any tears that OBL is dead. But I feel the Americans could have handled it differently and probably produced a far better result for everyone.
Now it just looks like the Americans only cared about payback instead of justice.
What more, I am one of those people who support the death penalty, but feel that sometimes a quick death is too lenient a punishment for some criminals, and OBL is certainly one of those who I feel deserves a great deal more punishment than a quick and painless death.
As it is, OBL spent the last years of his life living in relative luxury, and died a quick and likely painless death from a headshot. That’s too easy an ‘out’ for such a monster. The mere fact OBL did not want to be taken alive should have been more than enough reason to do exactly that. Now, he got exactly what he wanted, a quick and easy end and martyr status, so even in death he has achieve a measure of victory.
It would have been far more distressing for him to be shacked and paraded in front of the world’s cameras like a defeated animal. He could have had years of solitary confinement and 15min ‘suicide watch’ checks before he was fund guilty and executed. That would have enhanced America’s image, and given far more families closure with them being able to see justice done and maybe even OBL’s death, so there would be no lingering doubts about the 0.1% possibility he may still be alive.
I mean, Bradley Manning has arguably suffered more in custody, and OBL is infinitely more deserving of being caged in a dark hole and driven to the point of near insanity.
plawolfAnd there is something wrong with that?
:confused:
Moggy
Not in this case per se, but where exactly is the line on such extra-judicial killings?
I just feel uneasy with people feeling its hunky dory for the US President to be able to effectively order potentially anyone in the world to be assassinated at a whim without needing any legal justification or authority for doing so.
I wonder if you would be quite so relaxed if it was the Russians or Chinese who were going about raiding houses in foreign countries of people who they don’t like and issuing ‘take no prisoners’ orders and shooting unarmed people.
I don’t shed any tears that OBL is dead. But I feel the Americans could have handled it differently and probably produced a far better result for everyone.
Now it just looks like the Americans only cared about payback instead of justice.
What more, I am one of those people who support the death penalty, but feel that sometimes a quick death is too lenient a punishment for some criminals, and OBL is certainly one of those who I feel deserves a great deal more punishment than a quick and painless death.
As it is, OBL spent the last years of his life living in relative luxury, and died a quick and likely painless death from a headshot. That’s too easy an ‘out’ for such a monster. The mere fact OBL did not want to be taken alive should have been more than enough reason to do exactly that. Now, he got exactly what he wanted, a quick and easy end and martyr status, so even in death he has achieve a measure of victory.
It would have been far more distressing for him to be shacked and paraded in front of the world’s cameras like a defeated animal. He could have had years of solitary confinement and 15min ‘suicide watch’ checks before he was fund guilty and executed. That would have enhanced America’s image, and given far more families closure with them being able to see justice done and maybe even OBL’s death, so there would be no lingering doubts about the 0.1% possibility he may still be alive.
I mean, Bradley Manning has arguably suffered more in custody, and OBL is infinitely more deserving of being caged in a dark hole and driven to the point of near insanity.
plawolfSo the White House has just changed their story.
Instead of OBL ‘cowering’ behind a woman and using her as a human shield, it now transpires that the woman rushed at the attackers and was shot in turn, and OBL was killed while unarmed.
So in effect, this was an assassination mission at best and an execution at worse. That is, of course assuming the story does not change any more in the future.
plawolfSo the White House has just changed their story.
Instead of OBL ‘cowering’ behind a woman and using her as a human shield, it now transpires that the woman rushed at the attackers and was shot in turn, and OBL was killed while unarmed.
So in effect, this was an assassination mission at best and an execution at worse. That is, of course assuming the story does not change any more in the future.
plawolfI wonder, have anyone seen pictures of the Black Eagle flying with landing gears retracted? Did they try that already?
Considering that most of the photos are taken near the airfield when the plane is just taking off or about to land, would you really expect to see retracted landing gears?
plawolfNo, never ever … since never a Chinese fighter had a bay these are surely only faked lines made by Photoshop ! :diablo:
… some will claim.
Deino 😉
I’m sure someone will claim they are just baggage bays for the pilot’s shopping.
plawolfIt’s possible, but this is much more difficult than the FC-1 project. That aircraft the PLAAF was not particularly interested in it. It was salvaged from the Super 7 project and designed specifically for Pakistani needs. Pakistan has a tradition of salvaging orphaned Chinese programs like the Al-Khalid tank.
The JF17 has almost nothing to do with the old Super 7. The closest thing to the Super 7 is actually the JL9, which in itself looks too much like the JF17’s front bolted onto a J7 for me to think it did not benefit to some extent from the FC1.
It is true that the Super 7 was look at as a starting point, but it was rapidly abandoned as a no hoper and the JF17 probably owes a lot more to the F16 than any Mig21.
What you’re talking about would be a true joint service aircraft between PLANAF and PAF. But China doesn’t need Pakistan’s money and PLANAF would demand an uncompromised carrier fighter. Pakistan may be invited to participate and such an aircraft may suit Pakistan’s needs quite well, but that’s hardly PAF formulating it’s own requirements.
Well, being uncompromising about having a carrier fighter would not rule out a dedicated land based version that still shares enough common components to drive down unit cost and enjoy savings in logistics and training. The JSF is again a good example, if you leave out the black sheep that is the F35B.
Lets not forget that money is not the only thing Pakistan can bring to the table. They have a lot more exposure to the wider international aviation market, industry and fighter community.
That experience and input has certainly help the JF17 develop from a conservative ‘meh’ design into something a lot more modern, exciting, and almost certainly, more capable.
Granted, Pakistan does not have much experience to share with carrier fighters per se, but it would be arrogant and insulting to the Pakistanis to suggest that their insight and experience would not enrich and enhance a new 5th gen design.
With China already having the J20, I think Beijing would be a lot more relaxed about such a joint venture, and will likely also be developing it with an eye on the export market anyways, and so will likely be willing to be a lot more accommodating with project leadership and control.
plawolfLets not kid ourselves here, the PAF will always be at a disadvantage compared to the IAF, just as the RoCAF will never hope to be able to match the PLAAF.
What the PAF is aiming for is achieving technological parity at the very least with the IAF and accepting lower numbers. Their main goal is to be able to cause enough damage to the IAF and Indian ground forces as to deter any military misadvanturism from India.
I must stress I am not suggestion India will necessarily act irresponsibly as its military strength grows, but even Indians must accept the Pakistan must prepare with such an eventuality in mind, just as how India makes itself ready to fight China even though the chances of China invading India are remote in the extreme.
However, having said that, it always amuses me how little credit Pakistan’s own aviation industry gets, even from Pakistani supporters.
Let us not forget that Pakistan has a pretty broad aviation background with all the different types they have operated, and their engineers have already demonstrated impressive ingenuity and resourcefulness keeping such a diverse fleet operational despite sanctions. They are building JF17s as we speak, and their involvement in the programme and their technological expertise will only increase with time. After all, that was one of the key reasons why Pakistan went with the JF17 programme to start with – to help significantly boost its own aviation industry to a different league to where it started off from.
With that in mind, it would seem like all of the above would have been a waste of effort if it did not produce results beyond merely being able to put together JF17s.
Thus far, people have completely ignored the possibility that Pakistan will formulate its own future fighter requirements. While they have not yet demonstrated the capabilities to ‘go it alone’ and design a world class fighter by themselves, it is entirely possible that Pakistan’s own aviation industry will play a significant part in the PAF’s future fighter projects when working in conjuncture with Chinese partners.
One possibility could be that Pakistan would formulate their own medium weight fifth gen programme, thus they can build the requirements and shape the end result to best suit the PAF’s unique set of circumstances and requirements instead of getting planes designed for the PLAAF/PLANAF. Again, the JF17 is a perfect example of how such a co-operative project could work. And having produced such a fine plane, it would be amazing if Pakistan and China do not use this formula again. So in effect, the PAF would be able to start with a blank piece of paper and have a fifth gen almost tailor made to their requirements by best companies and people of China and Pakistan.
There is absolutely no reason why such a formula could not work and produce a Sino-Pakistan JSF equivalent, especially if the PLAAF and PLANAF were involved from the start. There is even a reasonable chance that such a project might attract interested parties beyond just Pakistan and China, especially with the JSF’s costs continuing to spiral. I am sure China would be more than happy to have others split the tab for the development costs of a medium weight fifth gen. Although I see the PLANAF being significantly more interested than the PLAAF, as the J20 looks a little big for carrier ops, and the J15 is just not going to be good enough for the PLANAF over the long term.
The key issues will be funding, and resources. Pakistan does not have the deepest pockets in the world, and their budget is already stretch with all their new acquisitions and future plans. With the recent natural disasters to hit Pakistan, it would be hard for them to find the cash to start a fifth gen project.
However, if the PLANAF is serious about getting a medium 5th gen for future Chinese carriers, it is entirely possible China would be thinking long and hard about such a programme to start with, so Pakistan being willing to make a contribution and signing on for a sizeable order could easily be the final push needed to green light the project.
The other main concern would be CAC’s capability. They are already working on the JF17, J10B, J20 and a host of UAV projects, so it is questionable if they can also take on another new fifth gen fighter programme and still be able to deliver the other projects on time.
SAC would have the capability, but lets just say they are not CAC.
All just possibilities and ‘what ifs’, but certainly worth keeping in the back of your mind.
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