plawolfBig whooptie do…So the chinese finally learnt how to operate subs??
Whats the big deal with this event? This is nothing new, IN’s Foxtrot class shadowed the Big-E carrier group in 1971. The russians and yanks have been playing this cat and mouse game for decades now. Japan, Australia, sweden, singapore all operate very good subs which can do the same if not better.
And who exactly made this out to be a big deal? :rolleyes:
Most people have tempered their reponses with qualifying statements that put this incident into context, ie, ‘2nd Probably the Washington times over reads into the incident because the combat readiness for a CVBG sailing at peace time is not that high.’; ‘SSKs are pretty damn quite when running on batteries at lower speeds, and its by no means the first time SSKs have gotten under the guard of an USN carrier battlegroup’…
Seems like you are the one getting all worked up about nothing.
plawolfThe incident proves one particular PLAN SSK skipper is an opportunist or a certifiable lunatic if nothing else!.
IF the US CVSG’s screen was up and they were conducting ASW ops – tactical ASW maneuvering, sonar watches plus chopper’s up and SSN patrol zones – something the PLAN skipper should have been acutely aware of, then that skipper had achieved something of huge significance.
Penetrating such a screen is a massive achievement and one that, if you ever want to do it again, you stay VERY, VERY quiet about.
By surfacing 5 miles astern of the CVSG the skipper has either detected the USN group bearing down on him and gone silent, noticed that they aren’t in Defence Watches and gone for a ‘PR kill’ by making something out of nothing with the surfacing drill or he has spent hours gaining position on the group, penetrated the best ASW the USN has, and promptly given away the fact that the PLAN can do such a thing – thereby tipping off the USN the need to tighten up their ASW techniques and increasing the difficulty for the next PLAN sub attempting the same thing!. Just for bragging rights?
If its the latter scenario, in the RN, that skipper would be rightly torn to pieces for his stupidity.
The USN is hardly ignarent to its weaknesses against top rate SSKs, as recent exercises and the Gotland lease deal shows. The USN is pouring huge amounts of resources into improving its ASuW ability against modern SSKs already, and would have done so even if this event never took place.
It also does not make any sense for the PRC to keep such an ability quiet if it possessed it. The goal is not to sink USN carriers in battle, the goal is convincing the USN that its carriers will be sunk in battle, thus reducing the likihood of those carriers getting involved in the fight in the first place.
Neither side wants a real war with the other, and both want to demonstrate their power to the other in order to deter the opposition from making a miscalculation that might lead to a war between the two.
It is entirely possible that this sub skipper was simply at the right place at the right time. However, it would make little sense for him to surface unless instructed so by his commanders, because pictures of the USN ships would give the skipper far more braging rights if it was reveiled that he managed to take those pics without being noticed, instead of merely being able to get that close on a suicide run.
There were no PLAN assets within the area to record such an ‘achievement’, ie, no photo of the Song with a hulking USN carrier as the backdrop. Thus no additional propaganda value in gained. What more, the PLAN SSK captain would have had no way to be sure that the incident would make the news anywhere, so even the ‘showing off’ theory is pretty questionable.
The only theory that makes sense (other then assuming the PLAN SSK skipper to be a brainless moron) is if the SSK was instructed to surface to send a message to the USN. But that would suggest that the PLAN have done this kind of thing before and is pretty confident of being able to do it again when the mission was authorised. And I suspect many here will find that hard to swallow.
plawolfWhat does it “prove”? Nothing. For all you know the US had been tracking it the last 100 miles and ignored it. For all you know the US could have had an SSN tailing since it left port. All that it “proves” is that a Chinese sub surfaced 5 miles away from a US carrier. Big whoopdie-do. What were they suppose to do, sink it?
How about sending some ASuW helos to ping it? The US hardly has a reputation for trying to hide its military prowess. It is the top dog in the world, and it doesn’t want anyone to doubt that even for a second.
Looking at this from purely the US’ point of view. How does deliberately giving the PLAN a giant phsycological boost benefit the USN? It is likely to make the PLAN more or less assertive in its operations? It is more or less likely to dissuade the PRC from using military means to resolve the Taiwan issue?
Unless the US is planned on having a real war with the PRC in the near future, there is nothing to be gained by feighning weakness now. Such a move will only weaken the USN’s deterrant power and make a real war more likely.
As others have pointed out, SSKs are pretty damn quite when running on batteries at lower speeds, and its by no means the first time SSKs have gotten under the guard of an USN carrier battlegroup, so I really fail to see why you are making such a great effort to try and argue that the USN was not caught off guard just this once. The real question is not whether a Song is able to get close to a USN carrier without being noticed, but rather whether it can do so in war time conditions when the carrier battle group would be at a higher level of readiness and moving at higher speeds.
This incident only proves that the PLAN have pretty damn quiet SSKs, it does not say anything about these SSKs’ ability to take on a USN carrier in war time conditions, so no need to get so vexed.
plawolfF-22 has 2 more attributes than the B-2 in its survivability toolbox. That is Stealth + Speed + Altitude. 3 attributes that give it tremendous advantage over any air defense system. Stealth delays the detection of the F-22, while speed cuts the available reaction time of the defense system. Altitude increases the survivability of the Raptor by cutting the adversary’s missile range while furthering its own AMRAAM’s reach.
How exactly is that LM sales pitch relevent to the discussion?
That depends on being able to find the F-22 first. Doing something like that also requires that the enemy not harden his platforms. With the US the leader in AESA technology and probably the pioneer in researching the destructive effects of AESA, do you think they would not component shield the F-22 if there was a practical threat of the sort described?
Purhaps you should re-read my last post. Specifically the part about ARHAAMs.
I was questioning the reliability of ARHAAM attack on ASEA equipped AWACS planes, which with the right software, should be able to fry the seeker of the incoming missiles with concerntrated radar energy, thus rendering them useless. If that assumption holds true, then the only other ways for a successful attack against such AWACS planes would be to use either passive seeking radar guided weapons (which could also be fried) or IR AAMs, with the latter seeming to be the only effective method. However, in order to use IR AAM, the stealth attacker would have to get really close to the AWACS.
As for the F22’s own radar, well lets not forget that the AESA on an AWACS platform will have many times the power output of the radar of the F22. Thus, with the right software, it is entirely possible for an ASEA AWACS to be able to match or even surpass the F22 in the destructive capacity of its radar even if the AWACS is using older technology. Its the same principle as older ground based radars being able to have greater range then more advanced fighter born radars. Size and power can matter just as much, if not more, then technological sophistication (within limites of course).
plawolfStealth only reduced detection range. It does not make anything invisible to radar, not by a long shot. Every single B2 mission has to be planned maticulously to avoid getting too close to ground based radars. As such, it might not be the smartest thing in the world to do for F22s to be trying to get too close to hostile AWACS that might be able to hit the plane with enough radar signal for a readable return to show up before the raptor is within AMRAAM range.
Also, if the AWACS has ASEA radar, then there is no reason why the AWACS won’t be able to do the same trick as advertised for the F22 whereby the radar signal could be focused to knock out a radar emitter, say that on an ARH AAM. ASEA radar equipped AWACS would also have a far higher chance of detecting a stealth platform further away.
plawolfThe FC1 was designed to be a ‘plug and play’ aircraft from the get go, and it has been a major marketing point for the plane since its inception. The FC1’s chief designer has stated in interviews that the plane is designed to be able to accomdate changes in radar, avionics and engines with mininal redesigning needed to facilitate the tastes and needs of different potential customers, thus the plane can be as advanced/expensive or as simple/cheap as an individual customer desires it to be (to within limits of course).
The costs of the Mica/RC400 package you described would not cost much and should not take too long to implement, with the cost of radar and engines being the main costs. But it would still be an additional cost and would result in delays of delivery. It might be a possibility, but there are political pressures that need to be taken into account, and from pictures of the FC1 04’s cockpit, there does not seem to be much need to improve the plane’s avionics package.
plawolfI did read in one of the British aviation magazines (not one of Keypublishing’s i think) that the missile hit a crane on the helicopter deck. This would match the scenario of a close detonation of a C802.
I personally think the C701 was the culprit it fits into the local picture far better than the C802:
Its smaller making it far easier to conceal and deploy.
It has an IR seeker option thus avoiding the deployment of radars.
Its licence built in Iran.
In all respects the C701 is a more suitable system for an organisation like Hezbollah who haven’t got the resources to support a large complicated weapon system like C802.
If it was a C802, then I find it highly strange that nearby Isreali warships would have classed it as IDFAF jets when the active seeker on the thing should have set off every warning bell they had.
It is possible that the missile involved was a C802, especially if this crane story holds true. But it seems pretty remote to say the least.
plawolfI am not aware of any soft-kill ECM or decoys that are claimed to have the ability to cause an incoming missile to detonate pre-maturally. If it was ECM and/or chaff/flares, the missile would most likely have missed the ship altogether had they been effective.
plawolfDoes anyone have pictures from the interview which showed the missile being fired? Thus far, I have not seen any compelling evidence that the missile involved was a C802. The fact that the corvette hit did not sink (or rather, was not blown out of the water, literally) also makes it pretty unlikely that a missile of the C802’s weight class hit the ship itself. From everything I have read so far, a hit from the much smaller, but externally similar C701 optical guided missile seems to fit the facts better.
The only likely scenario I can see where a corvette can survive a C802 hit is if the missile did not hit the ship itself, but rather detonated close to the ship. Since the Barat system was turned off, the missile must have struck. Although it is possible that the stealthy design of the ship confused the missile seeker, thus the missile locked onto and hit the helo on deck instead of the ship itself. But then, an IR seeker could just as likely have locked onto the helo if it was on standby and had its engine running.
Does anyone know if the helo was on deck or in the hanger at the time and what state of readiness it is in?
plawolfThe reason russian planes lost is the same. ROK and singapore AF’s use no russian gear. Maybe the F-15k is superior to Rafale, atleast it can be upgraded with AESA radar in future. Does thales even have a plan for AESA?
Just a nit-pick, but actually, the ROK operates Ka52 (?) helos, T80 MBTs as well as Russian ATGMs and probably some other things I can’t remember OTTOMH. However, there was never a realistic chance of such a huge fighter contract going to anyone other then the Americans, and all the other bidders were pretty much just there to leverage better terms from the Americans and act as a fail-safe in case something really unexpected happens.
Anyways, as interesting as the F15 and mig29K are, I can’t really see how they relate to the issue in this thread, so can we try and bring the discussion just a little bit back on track guys?
plawolfI think a few of my points to Tinwing could also go some way to addressing some of the points you made.
You have your points about how Varyag should be used. But I think PLAN is not going your way.
There were some pictures posted in one of the Chinese navy threads a while back that showed some interesting changes to the island on the Varyag that first got me thinking about PAR and VLS. Not sure if you have seen them or not.
In essence, getting Varyag back into service, purely for training or not, is to gain experience and capabilities mainly on sea borne air combat. Adding some long range VLS is really insignificant. They can even do that by coverting 051B DDG ship or build more 052C ships. Varyag is not for that purpose.
I’m not sayting that they turn the whole flightdeck into a massive thousand missile VLS battery, as fun as that will be. There are already spaces set aside in the original design for VLS, all they would need to do is put HHG9s and/or HQ16s in there instead. In my view, thats a far better use of that space then enlarging the hanger for a few more flankers.
As for converting or building new ships, well all the Chinese yards have their order books full for years, and are not happy with the number of low profit warship contracts they are getting as it is. Its not going to be cheap or easy to get them to build many more new warships then what they have already agreed to, and it is clear that the PLAN would like to see its fleet upgraded much faster (ala, second batch of Sov purchase). Thus, since they already have the Varyag in the docks being worked on, they might as well make some improvements that will give them a carrier and a destroyer instead of just a training carrier that they will need to pull most of them fleet over to protect if they ever want it to go to war with it.
Also, from quite some chinese articles I read, PLAN is really not interested in this bit of everything design.
True, but this won’t be the blueprint for future PLAN carriers, but rather turning a defenceless training ship into a ship that can help plug some major holes in the current PLAN force structure, and thus making the who fleet better because of it.
The current Varyag design is already not sufficient enough to support a meaningful long range commission(not enough fixed wing fighters, can’t or very hard to deploy fixed wing AEW planes etc…). It’s does not worth the money to turn it into the core asset of a future battle group, let alone adding extra bits and pieces. For what china had invested in this ship, a training ship will give china the best return to investment ratio. Thinking too much will just delay the whole thing and reduce the benefit margin.
It really depends on how long you think it will take for indiginous Chinese carriers to start appearing. I think it won’t happen for a good 10 years at least. Which means the Varyag is all they will have till then. If you have anything that suggests otherwise, I would be interested in seeing it.
plawolfI guess you would condemn the future Indian ADS with its MiG-29Ks because it is STOBAR as well?
I don’t much rate any none CATOBAR carrier, but thats beside the point since India is irrelevent to this discussion.
Assuming that the Chinese could put the ex-Varyag to sea, under here own power, making her original design speed, she would be a very useful vessel indeed.
Useful, how exactly? What mission would the PLAN need it for?
Of course, the effectiveness of a carrier largely depends on her airgroup and history has shown that defensive weaponry alone isn’t sufficient to protect a carrier.
When in the history of naval aviation has a carrier tried to defend itself without its airwing? :confused:
A Top Plate radar and 3 or 4 30mm CIWS systems would be sufficient. Moreover, the Chinese would be well advised to reduce the size of the island and plate over the intended positions of the VLS cells.
Such a ship would require the PLAN to pretty much gather every single one of its newest DDGs and FFGs to protect it, whereas the configuration I discribed would be able to more then handle itself. Its true that a floating flightdeck+hanger approach is a superior design for carriers, but I really don’t think the PLAN is interested in using the Varyag as a pure carrier. Because they don’t need a deep sea independent operations carrier. What will they do with it?
The PLAN says, and more importantly, all the evidence so far is suggesting, that it wants to approach modernisation in a balanced and systematic manner. That means it intends to build itself up evenly with cross the board improvements instead of focusing on a few magic bullets. The PLAN is divided into three fleets, and I see the ultimate goal of the modernisation programme to equip each fleet with at the very least one heavy/superheavy carrier. But thats a long way into the future since China can’t easily afford such a large navy right now.
China’s escort program is already quite impressive, both in terms of build rate and technology. The last thing they would need is to swamp a potential carrier program with unneccessary purchases of radar and weapons systems….assuming China indeed has an active carrier program?
The thing is, the Varyag is, imo, going to serve more as a training ship then a real operational combat carrier. The PLAN can go about it in at least two ways.
1) Minimalist approach: Just get the thing seaworthy with the bare essentials needed for it to launch and recover fighters. No weapons, no bells and whisles, just a throw-away floating training deck that can help the PLAN pilots and crew perfect carrier ops and train them up in preportion for when brand new Chinese carriers are launched.
While this approach would be the cheapest way to get the crew up to speed before indiginous carriers start showing up, it is still going to be damn expansive and will not be all that cost effective.
2) Flagship approach: Since the PLAN is going to the trouble and expense of making the Varyag hull seaworthy again, they might as well add a bit extra to make it into a viable combat unit.
By adding in PAR and HHQ9s, the Varyag would be able to sail without the 051Cs and 052Cs, thus they can be freed up to form the core of other battlegroups. By carrying primarily AEW and ASuW helos, the Varyag would be addressing the current gaps within the PLAN force structure far more efficiently then carrying a larger, air defence oriented Flanker force. Remember that in almost all likely scenarios where the PLAN might be called upon to fight, they would be able to rely upon the PLANAF and PLAAF for air support (both defensive and offensive), thus the Flankers are a bit redundent. However, AEW helos would be able to greatly push back the fleet’s visible horrizon, and ASuW helos would be able to go some way to addressing the PLAN’s rather embarressing lack of anti-sub capacity when outside of effective SSK coverage.
If you make the Varyag into a ‘cruiser carrier’, it becomes a force multimplier for the current PLAN fleet, and would help to plug the gaps until real long-term solutions are implemented. If you go with the traditional carrier design, then you have a carrier that will only ever be second best, and will need the PLAN fleet of the future to protect it now.
As for China’s carrier programme. Well its active, but really slow burning. The PLAN (or rather the central military commission) is most likely waiting for China to have sufficient money and advanced enough technology to get world class carriers before they truely give the green light. Its too early now. All this is just groundwork to set the stage for the future.
plawolfAssuming that the ex-Varyag ever gets under way under her own power, there is no reason why she couldn’t operate in the same way her Russian sister ship does?
Why would China upgrade ex-Varyag with expensive radar and missile systems? Such a move would be expensive and pointless, as would operating Varyag solely as a helicopter carrier. The entire concept of a aircraft carrying “cruiser” has been discredited. Even the Soviets realized this concept was faulty and planned to remove most of the weapons from the Kievs in favor of more deskspace for the Yak-41.
If Varyag ever goes to sea again it will be with far less armament than originally envisioned by the Soviets.
[/QUOTE]
Without a catipult, the combat load of flankers or any other type of fighter operating off of the Varyag would be pretty limited, and thus are their combat potential and usefulness.
There is also the ‘small’ issue of mission. The PLAN’s current objectives are located close enough to the Chinese mainland to be able to count on land based combat air support for pretty much any kind of combat mission the PLAN is likely to face.
This means that it would make far more sense to have the Varyag carry helos for fleet AEW and ASuW duties.
As for the costs of the radar and missiles, well if they are going to make the Varyag operational again, its going to cost a heap of money anyways, and its not like they are just going to stuff engines into her and call it a day. Radar, C&C, missiles, CIWS etc will all be installed anyways, and while four phase arrays are going to be a hell of alot more expensive the a Chinese verson of Top-plate and all the other radars needed, it’ll give a pretty huge leap in capabilities in return.
I’d be extremely suprised if the PLAN is willing to spend so much money just for a training tool, when,
a) they have a huge number of critially important projects ongoing right now that all need lots of money (051C, 052C, 054A, SSN, SSBN, Song SSK, Yuan SSK, stealthy FACs etc), and so there is very little reason to skim much needed funds from them to just make a training tool that is not even needed right now.
b) even with all its new DDGs and FFGs, the PLAN is still pretty light in air-defence and its ASuW can always use some beefing up. However, with Chinese yards having already filled their order books for years to come, the PLAN might very well not be getting the ships it wants fast enough (eg, second batch Sov order). If they are going to make the Varyag sea-worthy again, they might as well spend a little bit more to make her truely useful.
Its also not like the Varyag will need major strutural changes, as the ship was designed to take a great many VLS AShMs. They would just need to be replaced with VLS SAMs, and the fighter carrying capacity of the carrier would remain largely unchanged.
I am not suggesting that the PLAN is thinking of completely re-making her into a supercruise that just happens to be able to carry fighters, but merely the kind of upgrades the PLAN is likely to make to her so that she can play a bigger role then just training, to justify her cost.
plawolfI just don’t think varayag will be the first fully operational carrier for PLAN. They would make one on their own so that it is tailored to their needs. So varyag may only serve as a trainer of sorts till the new one is built and ready. Are there any plans as to build one yet?
I also beleive that the Varyag, if restored and put into survice, will function primarily as a training carrier and might just double up as an air defence super-heavy cruiser with 052C style radar and lots of VLS HHQ9s. The ship could also act as a helo carrier, and if pressed into combat, that is the role I see it performing instead of acting like a conventional fixed wing carrier.
However, that does not tell me anything about how you reached that 2030+ date. Thats 25 years away, a quarter of a century, for China’s first indiginous carrier? Thats more like a date I would set for when the PLAN would have completed the carrier building phase of its modernisation (which is also close to the deadline set for completion of the PLAN’s modernisation programme as stated in the lastest Chinese defence white paper IIRC).
plawolfIt is ok, swerve.
He tries to make ppl feel bad, but I guess he is small and bold, full of complex too.
That is a typical psychiatric case. Interresting notheless.
Many ppl are a lot smarter on this forum. Many.
Pathetic flame baiting and personal attacks. Why am I not suprised? :rolleyes:
If you have issues and must talk about them with someone, go see a professional instead of polluting the net with your bile.
Sign In
