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plawolf

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  • in reply to: Tawian F-15? #2565320
    plawolf
    Participant

    Reading that, I can see which I think has been brainwashed, and it isn’t the people of the RoC :rolleyes: Nothing quite as enjoyable as a xenophobic rant against the Japanese eh? If the PRC is so peaceful why not just say to the RoC, make your own choice, independence or unification, rather than threatening annihilation if they have the audacity to think they should decide their own destiny? :confused:

    Oh wow, the ‘brainwashed’ card, am I meant to be scared? :rolleyes:

    Its funny how its always those who can’t actually argue with facts, reason and logic who are the first to shout ‘brainwashed’, as if that is some kind of magical phrase that negates facts and reason. :rolleyes:

    in reply to: Is China sacrificing quality for quantity??? #2565771
    plawolf
    Participant

    What’s completely hilarious is that the Su-30MK2 is the non-secret jet, yet there are far more J-10 photos around 😀 And anyway I already gave you an export alternative to the JF-17: a single-seat L-15 derivative.

    I don’t have the specs of the two at hand, but IIRC, they are not in the same class, with the JF17 looking like the far better fighter.

    It also likely drew very heavily on the work done on the original Super-7 project.

    Did the Super-7 get all that far before it got put on the back burner? Also, the advanced design features on PT04 were never on the Super-7 model I seen.

    IF it sells. My real issue with the JF-17 really involves domestic use though, so if the JF-17 was perhaps an export-only project then it’d make more sense to me maybe.

    I’m hoping that the PLANAF gets the Chinese FC1s if any are bought for the PLA. That way the navy gets something much better then the J7 and Q5 that can complement the J8s in the fighter role to support the JH7s and MK2s, and the PLAAF doesn’t get saturated with too many fighter types. Besides, it looks like a pretty decent fighter, and the PLA can use them to beef up numbers in the strait better then J7s so its not like they will be white elephants with no use. Worse comes to worse, they can buy mostly twin seat models and use them for training.

    in reply to: Tawian F-15? #2565792
    plawolf
    Participant

    Don’t give up your day job. 😉

    in reply to: Tawian F-15? #2565795
    plawolf
    Participant

    The discussion has move away from the thread’s title but I think F-15s for Taiwan is a good idea. F-15s are a better match for what the mainland can throw against Taiwan than F-16s and Mirages.

    Why F15s is not such a hot choice for Taiwan has already been argued for and against before. You’ll have to look in the past posts for them, but if you have anything new to add, it would be a welcome shift back on topic.

    in reply to: Tawian F-15? #2565807
    plawolf
    Participant

    Good rant, but still no explanation of why the PRC is a threat to Taiwan at the same time as not being a threat. Logic not your strong point? :confused:

    Patients is not one of your virtues I see. :rolleyes:

    in reply to: Tawian F-15? #2565811
    plawolf
    Participant

    Well if you could construct a logical argument I may be able to understand what you’re going on about, but you’re all over the place.

    Thats because I wasn’t ranting, I was replying to different people regarding different issues.

    If the PRC has no intention of invading then they are not a threat, if they are a threat then they could invade, I’m trying to work out how they can be a threat at the same time as not having any desire to invade.

    The PRC wants to take Taiwan back, by peaceful means if at all possible, because a war in the straits if far from in China’s best interests. However, it has, and never will, give up the right to use force to reunite the island if there is a declearation of independence or if there is foreign invation/intervention of Taiwan, or if the island falls into internal chaos. Of the three conditions, only the first is of much relevence, since the later two were written with very specific scenarios in mind that was possible at the time but is not remotely likely any more (namely, the US moving into Taiwan, and open civil war on the island).

    Taiwan sees the PRC as a threat because it has always done so since the pause of the civil war. Indeed, the two sides had frequent clashes over the straits for decades after. Indeed, until JianJieShi (KMT supreme leader) died, the ROC military were readying themselves to retake the mainland.

    These days, it is ROC politions who use the mainland to score cheap politcal points by dumming up the ‘terrible commie threat’, or making small moves towards independence to try and provoke a PRC response to appeal to the ‘patriots’. Yet more evidence of how likely Taiwan’s leaders think it is for the PRC to actually attack.

    And why should Taiwanese independence trigger a war anyway? They’ve basically been independent for 60 years so why should the PRC consider they have a right to declare war if the arrangement is formalised if the Taiwanese ever decide to do so? :confused:

    Technically, the Chinese civil war never ended, much like the korean war. Broadcasters at Fox and CNN like to remind people of the later but play dumb when it comes to the former, I wonder why? :rolleyes:

    Anyways, BOTH sides have ALWAYS agreed that there is only on China and that Taiwan is a part of it. The Chinese Civil war was to decide who would rule over all of China. The peace enjoyed by the two sides today is based on an agreement between the two governments on the ‘One China Principle’, if Taiwan unilatrally rips that up by declearing independence, then there goes the only offical truce there ever was between the two, and either side is free to start from where they left off 60 years ago.

    PS, there is no such thing as ‘Taiwanese’ as a nationality. To suggest such a thing would be like suggesting that Geordies are not British.

    in reply to: Tawian F-15? #2565836
    plawolf
    Participant

    Funny you mention Japan, as you see regular anti-Japanese rants in the PRC.

    And the point being?

    And if there is no populism on the Taiwan issue why do you see so much of it over there?

    Like…what? Define ‘populism’ please.

    And how is Taiwan an imperialist construct like HK when it was formed from the pre-communist government of China?

    Zero knowledge of the relevent history. Why am I not suprised? :rolleyes:

    FYI, the pre-communist government of China, ie the Nationalists or KMT, were the run of the mill tyranical despot the west spends it free time condeming nowadays. Its brutality and tyrany pushed the Chinese people to revolt and it just happens that the Communists were the ones who were best at fighting, so because the default anti-gov moment during the Chinese Civil War, and the KMT got its ass handed back to them. After being comprehansively routed, what remained of the KMT and its army of forced conscripts fled to its last stronghold of Taiwan. The communists were all set to finish the war by taking the island. However, Uncle Sam didn’t like their puppet regeme begin wripped out, so it parked its 7th fleet in the strait to protect its cronies, and the current PRC-ROC stand-off is the result.

    Really, it should be Taiwan claiming back the main land from revolutionary usurpers.

    Yeah, and the Taliban should take back Afganistan from Imperialist invaders, the Argentinians should take back the Falklands from British conolialists…:rolleyes:

    in reply to: Tawian F-15? #2565855
    plawolf
    Participant

    Kind of like asking whenever a politician talks that one. I think you’re pretty mixed up, one minute the PRC is a threat to Taiwan, the next minute the RoC isn’t threatened by the PRC, the next minute they need Harriers, then they don’t need them as the PRC will not invade, I wish you’d make your mind up. How comes you think the PRC is a threat to Taiwan then say they have no intention of invading then? And how comes you seem to think the RoC is not preparing plans to counter a PRC attack?

    Simple minds are easy to confuse apparently. :rolleyes:

    When I have said the PRC is not threat to Taiwan exactly? Is it at the same rally that President Hu used Taiwan bashing to score cheap political points? :rolleyes:

    Let me try and put this in simple turns.

    1) Its not in the PRC’s best interest to attack Taiwan for reasons stated before. Thus the most likely cause of war between the straits is Taiwan declearing independence.
    2) Taiwan sees the PRC as its biggest and only present threat (which was never disputed).
    3) Taiwan does not look like it expects the PRC to attack because it turned down the ex-Marine Harrier offer from the US based on cost grounds. If it seriously feared a PLA attack at any moment, then they would be snapping up those harriers like they were hot cakes, not turning them down, which supports point 1).

    Any when did I ever state that I didn’t think the ROC has plans to counter PLA attack? :rolleyes:

    in reply to: Is China sacrificing quality for quantity??? #2565879
    plawolf
    Participant

    The catch? The catch is the J-10, J-11, J-7E, L-15, JH-7, and Q-5D. None of them are indigenous Chinese aircraft.

    Surely you don’t believe this J10-Lavi myth? And classifying the JH7 as ‘non-indigenous’ just because it uses a foreign engine? By that yardstick, the F35B isn’t indigenous because it has tech based on R&R liftfan. What about the Gripen? Need I go on?

    Were I in charge in Beijing, I’d much rathe rsave the money and have more J-10s rather than the JF-17…First, it’d ostensibly allow Chengdu to allocate more resources towards further J-10 development and production. Second, it’d force customers who need to buy Chinese to go for the more expensive J-10, bringing you more cash, or take the L-15 variant, helping to offset it’s development costs.

    The thing is, it doesn’t look like the PLAAF is too keen to see the J10 exported anytime soon, with purhaps Pakistan being the exception. Thats the whole reason for the development of the JF17, otherwise CAC would be happily marketing the J10 as aggressively as it is with the JF17 instead of being forced to deny the thing even exists. Based on the speed of its development after CAC finally started serious work on the project, I think its safe to say that the JF17 is just a simplified J10, or a plane that draws extensively on lessons learned developing the J10.

    The end result is that I really don’t see why China is even pursuing the JF-17, given that the J-10 is available and that there are other, more cost-effective solutions for replacing the J-7 in a point-defense role if they want to.

    I don’t think the JF17/FC1 is an entirely government sponcered programme. Remember that the PLAAF already has its heart set on the J10+J11 combo. CAC wanted to start making real money from its J10 programme (since it obviously won’t be allowed to make too much on the planes it sells to the PLAAF), and since they can’t sell the J10, they used the J10 tech to make the FC1 after they got the PAF interested. Its basically mature tech, so it wouldn’t have cost that much more to develop, and if it sells half as well as they are predicting, then thats heaps of cash for CAC.

    I see the FC1 as having the potential to be the Chinese F5 if CAC play their cards right. Pakistan is the launch customer, Egypt seems keen to develop their indigenous aviation industry, and they seem to be pretty pleased with their K8 deal. Its entirely possible that they might opt for the FC1+production line+SD10 deal to replace all their aging Migs and F7s etc, with another western plateform filling the ‘high’ role. If they did go for the FC1, then the savings made over, say F16s or Gripens, would likely allow them to go for some higher-end toys like Typhoon and Rafales instead of F16s or Gripens.

    Iran is also a possible customer since they can’t replace all their Migs, F5s and F4s etc with Flankers, and their new ‘indigenous’ fighter pics don’t look all that impressive, although American pressure might kill that deal. Tailand might also be an outside possibility. The birds got a lot of potential, the key would be if it sells.

    in reply to: Tawian F-15? #2565920
    plawolf
    Participant

    Oh well done! Must be hard ‘winning’ a point when no-one has ever disputed it. :rolleyes: The issue was never about who the ROC is arming against, the issue is when and how war might break out, meaning the circustances leading to it, thus the way the war might be fought.

    What, you think you are the only one who has been to the PRC? Care to give some examples of when high rankers in the PRC have used the Taiwan issue to ‘get cheap boosts’?

    in reply to: Tawian F-15? #2565988
    plawolf
    Participant

    What exaclty are you on mate? When did I say any of what you are proposing? :rolleyes:

    Your increasingly obserd ‘examples’ aren’t helping your credibility either. When was the last time China used Taiwan to ‘divert domestic unrest’? :rolleyes:

    No-one but you have ever even hinted that the PRC is not Taiwan’s chief secruity concern. The issue is what kind of war the ROC sees itself as fighting, as suprise suprise, there are quite a few number of ways a war can be fought. If you think it highly possible that your chief threat might be raining anything up to a thousand SRBMs on you with maybe as little as 5 mins notice, would you go with F16s that need mile long runways to take off and land, or AV8B+s that only need a tennis court?

    The F16 buy is to boost the ROCAF’s aging fleet and to counter the PLAAF’ growing power, so as to not appear too weak and make it too tempting for the PLA to attack, it in no way signifies that the ROC expects to be attacked any time soon, and I think they have put slightly more time and thought into the matter then you or I.

    in reply to: Is China sacrificing quality for quantity??? #2566010
    plawolf
    Participant

    The newest J7s and J8s are just vastly improved versons of the original. The lines are there already, and it really doesn’t take much tweaking to accomidate the new design changes. Still, these are only fringe projects in terms of budget since J7s and J8s tend to be incredibly cheap (though they might be more pricy now with composites and better radars and avionics etc). The J10 and J11 are the key projects for the PLAAF, and two main fighter types to form a hi-lo mix is hardly unusual.

    The JH7 is mostly a PLAN project for anti-shipping, and it is basically the only domestic choice unless a twin seat J11 verson is developed or if a vastly beefed up J10 comes out. There have been no solid evidence of either. The only other choice is imported MK2s, and those cost a buddle. Seems the PLAN is going for a hi-lo mix as well. Again, not too out of the ordinary.

    The L15 seems to be the prefered choice of the PLA for an advanced trainer, and the PLAAF is unusual amongst major powers for not currently having any advanced trainers in service, so it is filling a critical gap in capacity.

    As for the Q5D, well that seems to be a private project by Nanjing who is desperate to keep the Q5 lines open as it is their main/only product. There is no indication that the PLAAF have taken the project up yet, even if they do, it will likely be in the form of an upgrade or a mix of new and re-manufactured planes instead of buying hundreds of next examples.

    The Z9, and WZ10 are also filling unique roles within the PLA force structure.

    There isn’t actually that much brand new stuff, and the totally new equipment (J10, J11, JH7, Z10, L15) is being inducted at a relatively normal pace for such types, if not slightly on the slow side. There have not even been rumors of any major mishaps with any of the above projects other then stories about a J10 prototype clash early on in the project life cycle. The Russians have commented favourably on the build quality of the J11s, and pictures of the J10 and L15 looks very well manufactured, the leaked info on their capacity is also pretty impressive.

    Remember that many of these projects have been in the works for over a decade before they came to fruitition. What is unusual is that many of these projects seem to have reached maturity near the same time. Seems that at that time or around, China’s aviation industry was able to crack some long-standing bottlenets that probably delayed or held back some projects. Its also worth while to remember that China only realised the importance of air power after GWI, and most likely spending on aviation projects greatly increased after then, thus many projects probably started around the same time.

    in reply to: Tawian F-15? #2566042
    plawolf
    Participant

    How does more of the same add anything new to your argument? Many of your examples are not appropriate, but we will almost certainly get seriously side-tracked if we dealt into it too deeply.

    The task of the planning section of a nation’s defence forces is not to ‘examine every possible scenario and make plans accordingly’ as you seem to think, it is to PRIORITIES the most likely and pressing threats and allocate the military budget to prepair for them accordingly. Trying to counter every possible threat will quickly see the biggest defence budget dry up, resulting in a military that is a jake of all traits and good at none, and that is real cause for prosecution. Its pointless for Pakistan to buy carriers at the expense of its air force and army when a war with India breaks out. What, you think all that weaponry comes free of charge? Taiwan is not Israel you know, and even Israel need to priorities their purchases.

    And Taiwan’s choices is pretty clear about how much threat they feel they are faced with. If they seriously thought that there is a real risk of the PRC attacking anytime soon, then they would have taken up the American AV8B+ deal regardless of the costs and how long the planes are likely to last as long as they lasted for the course of any possible war. Instead they chose to take the long view and wait for the F35B, with a purchase of more F16s in the meantime to offset the growing power of the PLA.

    in reply to: Looking east to buy? #2566175
    plawolf
    Participant

    The EF partner nations have put way too much money into the project to back out now, especially at such a late stage, when they have invested the vast majority of the money they were going to invest and is just about to start reaping the rewards.

    Even if the F3 replacement tender started right now, without having any money already spent, the chances of the UK going Russian is pretty remote. Politics still plays a major part in any major armes deals. Just look at all the hoohah about the amongt of gas the EU imports from Russia for a recent example of Russian-phobia. An arms purchase of the scale you are talking about would generate 10 times as much outrage.

    Capacity have suprisingly little to do with who actually wins a contract, recent big ticket fighter deals are littered with examples. Fact of the matter is, who you buy arms from is like a barometre of which ‘side’ you are on in the great game, and Britain doesn’t own a solitary piece of Russian made arms of any kind. Besides, the Americans will take serious offence at such a ‘betral’ and would manufacture all sorts of problems for the MoD when it comes to intergrating anything American onto Russian made ac.

    Then there’s also the issue of whether the Russians will want to sell since selling to the UK will equate to selling to the Americans. Don’t really see Putin all that keen to have the Americans know all there is to know about Russian planes more advanced then the ones they have in service.

    Not going to happen any time soon.

    in reply to: Tawian F-15? #2566260
    plawolf
    Participant

    Worth remembering that a frighteningly high proportion of wars are started over reasons (national ego/pride, political populism, need to divert attention from domestic problems, dynastic fall out, political miscalculation etc.) that later historians look back on as ridiculous and very often all of the logical, rational factors act against war yet fail to prevent war (WW1 for instance), so I really wouldn’t get too complacent if I was Taiwanese.

    And how many wars were started because of precisely that kind of paraniod mistrust? Not to meantion the narrowly averted one that could very well have destroyed the world as we know it.

    Just because freaky things have happened in the past does not give one justification to treat possible, yet extremely unlikely scenarios as if they are anything more then far-fetched. Such behaviour is akin to the village idiot who takes to wearing inch-soled rubber boots because there is a real, but extremely remote chance he might get hit by lightening when out walking.

    Judgement is what separates the men from the boys, hiding behind ‘what ifs’ is a sign of a lack of judgement or a stubben determination to push an agenda that can’t be defended with facts and reason. Instead of trying to prove their point, they retreat to demanding others disprove it. There is a term for it, and its call conspiracy threories, and those are a dozen a penny.

Viewing 15 posts - 961 through 975 (of 4,042 total)