How about an usefull answer about Chinese Tsunami help first?!

Originally Posted by plawolf
a lot of baseless hot air with little fact or reason. we can go into detail, but then it’ll just derail the discussion again.

ah, i see my personal fan club has arived. :rolleyes:

first of all, how was my last post of any concern to you? and secondly, what the hell has tsunami help/ international aid got to do with anything that was being discussed before? :rolleyes:

guess some people just like to change the subject a lot. :rolleyes:

Don’t insult the American Public by stating only one side! The US has many interests in Taiwan. Some maybe National while others are Humanitarian! I mite add that the US gives more Aid to Humanitary Causes than all of Europe Combined.

a lot of baseless hot air with little fact or reason. :rolleyes: we can go into detail, but then it’ll just derail the discussion again.

Yes Taiwan is right on the PRCs doorstep however the PLANs Eastern and Southern fleets main bases are quite some distance from the action. Most of the vessels involved would either have fairly lenghty transits or need to be moved ahead of time.

well, why would the warships need to be in position to start with?

the only way the PLA would need a massive naval build up right from the start is if they plan to launch an amph assault from the first minute of the battle.

why would they do that? there is no hope to achieve any sort of meaningful suprise (in that the defences would be ready for them when they arive). as such, there is zero need to rush.

also, there is a significant PLAN naval force within a very short distance of taiwan anyways.

Maybe but the thing is professional soldiers tend to do things by the book. Major operation coming up, better put the troops through some extra training just to be safe. Ooops now they need to have some time to rest and conduct maintenance.

professitional soilders are unlikely to make such ameture mistakes. :diablo:

if you really dont understand. the whole purpose of training and excerises is to get the soilders used to being able to fight when call upon to do so. the excerises also double up as a measuring stick for commanders and planners to see how long the units would need to mobalies.

professional soilders do what they are told. they dont ask questions or argue. they get an order, they’ll follow it. very few people would need to know about an attack in advanced. once a date has been decided. the order is passed down the chain of command to the individual soilders within a matter of hours, maybe less then a hour, depending on the level of training.

even if the US does spot these movements. it would be at least an hour before they can make sense of it.

and anyways. the ground forces would not be needed right from the start. it will take at least several hours for the PLAAF and PLANAF to clear the skies, open up a SAM free corridoor and start to clearing the beach defences.

these hours would be all the time the first wave of ground forces need to get ready. china’s rapid reaction forces, including the paras, are supposed to be ready to deploy to anywhere in the nation within 24~48 hours. and thats from a ‘cold start’ – ie reacting to a sudden emergency instead of starting the move themselves.

These are patterns that the US intel community has been built to see for decades and I feel much more confident of their ability to get this stuff right than all the work they are being called on to do to fight terror and insurgency.

oh really? were the insurgents in charge of iraq before america invaded? cos the CIA, NSA etc screwed up pretty spectacularly then as well. :rolleyes:

Having all the planes down from flying for maintenance (after all if you’d like to have all your planes available for ops right?) tends to be noticible too.

the number of planes in the air differs wildly depending on a huge host of vairables. since not every last plane within the PLAAF is going to be used, i’m sure they can spare some to keep up apperances.

further more, they can schedual it to conincide with periods when PLAAF activity is low historically to further distort the situation.

if worst comes to worst, they can have part of the attacking force take off hours before the main attack if needed. the flankers have the endurance for that.

Even little things like reductions in mobile phone traffic because the troops have been told they can’t phone home anymore could trigger a response (a couple more SSNs moved in to listen in, a few more EP-3C flights, a bit more attention given to satellite recon) that could lead to the game being discovered or suspected.

china might be the biggest market for mobiles in the world, but extremely few soilders have mobiles. and i strongly suspect they would not be allowed to use them even if they had them.

Thats a pretty long timeline. Enough time to have those ports covered by subs and other recon assets and airstrikes worked out. SSN attack coordinated with a B-52 strike from CONUS with Harpoon ASMs and supported by fighters and SEAD (with tanker and AEW&C support) from Guam will mean a pretty rough time for the amphibs.

SSNs only carry a very small number of cruise missiles as standard. such missiles are ineffective against naval targets anyways.

without AWACS or other remote targeting info, sub launched harpoon range is going to be very limited (probably not much better the torp). then there is also the very small number of missiles limitation.

but anyhow, the point is that for SSNs to have a go at the landing ships and/or escorts, they’d have to get in the straits, and be damn close to the port to boot.

not only will the area be crawling with SSKs and surface warships, but there would also be swarms of ASW helos and prop planes within a few minutes flight time.

for an SSN to attack such a target would be to effectively commit suicide.

B52s are sitting ducks for fighters, and whatever fighter support that comes along with the B52s would be pushing the edge of their endurance evelops; be hugely outnumbered; not have full AWACS and EW support; while facing an opponent with AWACS and EW ac support.

then there is also the threat from ship and land based medium range SAMs to worry about.

at best, the USAF can hope to get a draw, and they would most likely be beaten, abd badly so.

of course, there would also be the inevidtable PLA counter attack on the bases that launched the planes.

in short, if the US gets involved before they have sufficient numbers, they’d just get beat. thats why they need to wait.

As it is 3+ days for the paratroops you mentioned earlier to hold out on Taiwan is a long time. Arnhem in WWII is a good example of what can happen to unsupported/unrelieved light troops.

well if you read what i wrote before, the paras will likely only go in after 24 hours. two days is easy for paras.

also, alot has changed since WWII. modern ATGMs, air dropped IFVs, far better close air support etc all combine to make the para troop much more evenly matched against regular troops who have very crappy MBTs (cos MBTs is the only area where ruglar troops will hold the obvious egde).

PLAN major fleet units are not based directly across the straight, they would have to transit. That would leave them open to attack, and having PLAN SSKs or SSNs escort the groups would make the sub rather vulnerable to detection themselves.

wrong. china has three major fleets, and of those, only the northern fleet is based any significant distance from taiwan.

also, the surface fleets would set off shortly after the battle starts. it will take a few days max for even the furthest based ships to get into position.

it would be highly questionable if US SSNs could get in to a striking position that quickly.

even if they could, the surface ships would be transition very close to the shore and be able to call upon land based ASW ac very quickly if attacked, so in general, it would be a very bad idea for a SSN skipper to try and attack the ships.

Well given your proposed timeline of up to a week before the amphib units sortie I would expect that any SSKs operating nearby a US sub would have already revelaed themsleves by snorkelling and therefore switched from hunter to hunted.

the SSKs are not out in the pacific hunting SSNs. they just need to maintain a tight corden around the assemble area. they would take turns to go on watch, while those snorkelling would do so under the escort of ASW frigates and destroyers.

I agree that is only a small issue. I’d hate to be anyone trying to conduct surface or aerial ASW ops anywhere near Taiwan itself.

whats this? an attempt at humor? :diablo:

Unless of course the US was the sort of force that practiced cooperative, all arms type warfare therefore blunting the ability of an enemy to react effectively due to overload and loss of situational awareness. Oh wait that is how the US fights.

and how is the US supposed to overwhelm an opponent’s ability to respond with a handful of assets? :rolleyes:

just because the US military as a whole is near invincible in a conventional engagement does not mean that every last part of that force is also unbeatable.

trying to fight a battle with insefficient numbers and equipment is to invite defeat. but in the time it would take the US to build up sufficent forces to have a good chance of victory, the battle would already have been over.

Well, hopefully China doesn’t have the same views as you? That would be a “dangerous miscalculation”. :dev2: The US will Defend Taiwan no doubt. Further, countries like Japan and South Korea will allow the US Military to use its bases in there respect of Countries. Further, world opinion will favor Taiwan over any forced reunification by China……..

first off, get the facts right. i have repeatedly stated that china will not attack taiwan because china has no need to. all of my previously posts are about what china could do to take taiwan if it wants to.

as for american resolve to fight and die in huge numbers for taiwan. well apart from your own personal opinions, what other basis is there for this assumption?

did the US jump head over heels to get into WWI and WWII? did the US stay the course in korea, vietnam, somalia?

there is also abosolutely no analysis or explanition as to why japan and SK would sacrific so very much to bend over backwards to help america.

as much as america would like these countries to be ever obidient lapdogs, the fact of the matter is that these are independent nations that will place their own interests first and foremost.

i have at least covered all my positions with facts, historical trends, cost-benefit analysis and reasoning. thus far, you have provided none of that, and is only repeating your beliefs without being able to given a better explanition then ‘cos i say so’.

that is not debating. its just denal.

first off, could you please break up your quotes in future? as your current method makes it needlessly difficult to respond.

The US has alot of tactical aircraft very close by……from Korea, Okinawa, and Japan itself. These units would be backed up by aircraft in Alaska and Guam. (and possibly stateside) As a matter of fact Guam usually has forward based bombers on hand at all times. Sometimes even B-2 Bombers. Of course that doesn’t include Naval Units. Usually, Surface Ship and Submarines are also near by. Which, have large numbers of cruise missiles.

unlike all the other wars the US has thus far fought, china is not just going to sit back and let the US come at her at its lesuire. any US bases used to launch attacks on the mainland or chinese forces would be considered fair game and attacked.

why do you think china is bothering fielding 1,500km+ cruise missiles?

further. it would be extremely doubtful that SK would allow the US to use bases in korea for attacks on chinese forces. out of respect for their relations with china; the vast economic impact doing so would cost them, and also out of concern for what china could do to them in response (no need for china to actually attack SK, just some free toys for NK would give SK a great deal to worry about).

japan is a different matter, and for economic reasons, it is highly doubtful they would be willing to escalate the conflict any further. but even if japan does allow its bases to be used, the distances would still be near the limite of US fighters.

as for the force already out in guma. B52s are worse then useless against china from day one. they are only useful after the US can gain air superemecy, as otherwises they themselves would become sitting ducks, or be forced to launch their weapons from extreme range, which would make the weapons easy to detect and intercept as they would have to go virtually all the way over water.

as for stealth fighters and bombers. well stealth does not make an AC invisable to radar. it would merely make it less visable.

go ask any F117 or B2 driver what they fear most, and the answer would be a sky full of hostile fighters. this is because the constainly moving fighters would make it effectively impossible to plane a rout to aviod being detected. and once detected, the unarmed and subsonic stealth planes are as good as dead.

what more, bases within F117 range would also be within range of chinese cruise and ballistic missiles.

so even stealth assets are more or less sidelined until the US can gain air domonance, as the aircraft would be too costly to risk loosing.

China’s ability to sink a USN Carrier is somewhat limited. First the USN would position its Carrier(s) on the far side of Taiwan. Which, would require the PLAAF to fly are very long range. Second, finding a Carrier in the vast Pacific is not easy. Third, she would have to get by many air defenses. From the USN’s Battle Groups own Escorts (i.e. Aegis Destroyers & Cruisers) to USAF and USN Caps. Forth, even before a Carrier Battle Group got in the general area. Many of China’s nearby Airbases would be attacked by large numbers of missiles and bombs. (i.e. from Ships, Subs, and Stealth Bombers) As for a ground war the odds of China getting a large number of troops safely to Tawian is questionable to say the least. China has a somewhat limited Ampb. Capability.

chinese flankers and H6 bombers can easily make the trip. maybe even without needing refueling. the flankers can carrier AAM load as escorts while the H6s carry the AShMs. then there are also the JH7s. with their 250KM+ missile ranges, it would not be out of the question for them to also be able to make the trip.

the PLAN also has the option of sending out the new ‘2208’ stealthy FACs. their speed and size would make subs ineffective against them, and if supported with air cover and remote sensor target data, their C803 AShMs can easily outrange US harpoons. and each ‘2208’ can carry up to 8 C803s.

what more, the size and LO design of the FACs would throw a big question mark over the ability of US harpoon AShMs to succesfully intercept them (as there is just no realist scenario of them getting within main gun range of a USN warship). but even if the harpoons can get a 100% hit rate (which is impossible), trading a couple of FACs for a destroyer or cruiser is well worth it for china.

as for detecting carriers. well something that size will not be hard to miss on spysats. and if china did plan it all it advance, chances are the movements of the kittyhawk would have been well established before the first shot was fired.

in terms of US land based fighters. well they might have a hard time getting up in any numbers if the runways are all cratered with holes. it would also be doubtful if there will be many fighters to send up in the first place, as i am not aware of any hardened shelters for fighters on guam or any other US base in the region.

As stated above the US has many assets to challenge the PLA from day one. Also, I mite add that other countries would more than likely come to the US and Taiwans Aid. Especially, if China’s attack was a surprise! Which, would turn world opinion against her.

and as i have stated, china has the ability to more then give current US forces in the region a good run for their money.

if the US is to muster the resolve to get involved. they will not risk taking heavy looses and loosing major engagments on day one. the US just value american lives too much to risk for someone else. and also for fear that heavy losses form day one will break public resolve.

if the US does decide to fight. it will not start fighting until it is sure that they have a better then 50/50 chance of not only winning, but winning with as little losses as possible. never mind when the odds are they will loose, and badly (compaired to what they have experienced in the last couple of decades). and if past experience is anything to go by, they’d not get stuck in until it odds are way way past 50/50.

as for world oppion. well who beside the US and Japan has any realist chance of getting involved?

on the battlefield, criticism count for very little.

On mainland China NO. On the island of Taiwan YES.

Possibly, but that won’t deter the US. If, China tries to force Taiwan into submission. Further, the US doesn’t have to invade China. It just has to prevent China from invading Taiwan. Personally, IMO the US has the assets to do just that.

well thats just your personal opinon, and i fail to see how merely restating our respective opions over and over again will serve any meaningful purpose.

I think China is smarter than both of us put together. Currently, its possible but not likely that China could win a Taiwan/Chinese Conflict. The price is just to high. THANK GOD

and the cost of the korean war was small for china? the prospect of total war with the USSR was to be taken lightly?

every nation has bottem lines, for if they were breached, no price would be too high to pay to fight in defence of that. taiwan is one such thing for china, just like freedom is for america.

its not the land or even the economic value that makes it so important – china has ceaded far more land to her neighbours via negotionations, and for an economy like that of china’s, the size of taiwan’s economy is just not worth all the bother in the long run.

it is the way the decision over the fate of the island was taken away from the chinese people by the US all those years ago that really makes the issue what it is. the overwhelming majority (somewhere in around the region of 99% imo) are determined that no part of china will ever again be broken away via the use, or threat of use of force by any foreign nation.

if the US doesnt get that, and pushes for taiwan’s independence. there can only be one outcome. and in such a war, the US will loose eventually, because you just dont believe in, or care about what is being fought over enough. after enough lives and time has been wasted, the US will loose the will to fight and pull out, like they have every time they run into such situations in the past. the only questions would be how long it would take, and how many lives it would cost both sides.

but anyways, the point i was making has never been that china should retake taiwan now – why should china when the indications are that taiwan will oneday rejoin of its own accord? but that if china really wanted to take the island. it can. the costs would be huge. but that will not be enough of an obstical – nothing short of full blown nuclear war would be.

True but what powerful assets does China have that the US couldn’t over come?

the key factor is time. i have already said the if the US was allowed to bring its whole might to bare, china would have little chance without having to resort to tactical nukes. however, the fact of the matter is that the US will not risk so much for anyone expect for themselves. the US will not accept the very high risk of loosing a whole carrier battlegroup and will be forced to wait (if other assets get involved, the US carrier group would be fair game as well).

it will take many weeks if not upwards of a month to gather a good number of carriers in the region for the US to be ready to commit. in that time, the ground war would most likely be over.

the US will probably gather its forces anyways even if they have no intention of getting involved to force the PLA to rush, and so take more risks. this would increase the cost of retaking the island, and if the PLA really screws up on a gigantic scale and gets fought to a standstill (extremely unlikely but poissble nonetheless), the US can go in and get an easy victory at little cost.

chances are that the US will make a big show of getting ready to get involved. but will only make the final decision after they are in a position to be almost garanteed to get the upper hand. and even then much will depend on how the battle progresses.

the US might be willing to commit to a defensive operation where only its most powerful assets are involved. but it will not be willing to commit to a ground war. not for someone else anyways.

short of china re-inacting pearl harbour, the US will not have the resolve to take the number of dead that such an undertaking will garantee (and a hole long more if they loose, which is all too likely).

As stated above China has to get a very large number of forces to Taiwan and intact. Which, is not likely………… 😮

what gave you that impression?

on paper, the ROCAF (both the army and navy are effectively useless) might be a decent match against the PLAAF, but that does not take into account of the ZERO strategic depth of the island of taiwan.

a suddenly BM and cruise missile attack could quite easily ground most of taiwan’s fighters. SEAD aircraft, special forces, cruise missiles etc could quite easily and quickly open up a corridoor through taiwan’s air defences (the job would be even easilier if much of the batteries have opened up against the missile attack, both depleting munitions and highlighting their position.

even if the ROCAF manages to pull off mission impossible and does launch a good number of planes, the PLAAF would easily outnumber them.

even then the PLAAF can still easily win.

all they need to do is send in loads of cruise missiles and/or drones (only J5s and J6s are reported to be converted into target drones and cheap cruise missiles). point is they will look like real fighters on radar. and ROCAF pilots would be forced to engage them as such. the PLAAF can spice things up even more by sending in some EW jamming ac and real fighters in amounts it all to add confusion.

all that this is going on, more missiles will be attacking the airbases.

after that, what fighters taiwan did manage to get airbore would be low on fuel and weapons. with effectively nowhere to land and very few reinforcements likely to come.

the main force of the PLAAF can attack then and easily sweep the skies of the ROCAF once and for all at very little cost to its main fighting force.

or, the PLAAF can take the laze approach. launch its main fighters like flankers and later block J8s (ARHAAM capable) like it was about to launch a full blown attack. and have them just make circles in the middle of the strait once the ROCAF fighters have been committed.

the flankers can easily outlast anything flying in the ROCAF, so it would just be a matter of waiting until the ROCAF fighters start running out of fuel.

once they head back and land (if they can land at all, but lets just assume that they can land). SEAD ac can open up an air corridoor and the PLAAF planes and cruise missiles can take them while they are on the ground refuleing.

if the ROCAF jets advance to attack, they will be within range of chinese shore and ship based SAMs as well as fighter based BVRAAMs.

also, if they move towards the mainland. china’s huge numbers of J7s (which are suprisingly deadly in a dogfight thanks to their HMS+high off-broadside AAMs) could take over once the BVR part was over.

once the PLAAF has gained air dominance. a SAM free corridoor can be easily opened up with attack helos (WZ9, Mil17s and possibily Z10s), CAS aircraft (Q5s and K8s) and fighers and bombers MKKs.

china has at least two paratroop divisions ready to be dropped at the same time. more troops can be brought in with the aircraft once they return and take up another load of troops. but for the sake of argument, only two divisions are dropped in.

these two divions on their own might be enough to take the island with air support. but even if they play it safe, they can head towards the sea and take the coastal defences from the rear. add in air support and anyone can see that it will not be all that difficult to open up a beachhead (with MKKs, JH7As and H6s and SF etc attacking transportation nodes and troop concerntrations to delay ROCA from concerntrating their forces on the advanced units).

with a beachhead established. the PLAN’s relative lack of amph ships (they still have a good number) are off little concern, as fishing boats and ferries can be used to land troops and equipment on a secuired beach.

once a beach head has been opened up, its game over.

PLA troops far outnumber ROCA forces, and are likely to be better trained (taiwan’s army consists largely of conscripted college kids on short tours, whereas almost all PLA troops are career soilders); far better motivated (a recent polled show a huge percentage ot teenagers on taiwan would simply give up and surrander if the PLA have landed, cant remember the numbers otomh); much better equiped (PLA current gen MBTs are at least 3 gens ahead of anything taiwan has; basic infantry weapons are about on the same level, what attack helo advanatge taiwan has would be neutralised by PLAAF fighters).

added in air domance and a willingness to take casaulties and commit numbers on the PLA side, and only the most dilutional individuals would suggest that there is any hope taiwan has of standing on its own for any amount of time.

in the best case scenario, the PLA could take over in 48~72 hours. worst case, anything up to a month. the most likely time frame would be between the two extremes. i’d say between a week and 20 days.

what more, if the PLA play their cards right. they can take the island with very few losses. amougst its best fighters anyways.

In the forseeable future China will not be able to win a military conflict with Taiwan. Because the US will intervene make no mistake about it.

you care to explain how the US is going to intervine in the event of a chinese sudden attack? :rolleyes:

as of now, it is easily within china’s ability to defeat one US carrier battle group, probably more. this means that the US will not start shooting until they have at least 3 carrier groups in the region. that will take weeks if not over a month depending on where the ships were at the time (and if it was a chinese attack, china would have chosen the moment when US forces are stretched to their thinnest and reinforcements will take the longest possible period of time to arive). in such a long period of time, the ground war would likely be over.

if the single US carrier group acts on its own, it will be destroyed. so either way the US will need to wait several weeks at least before they are in a position to seriously challenge the PLA around taiwan.

are you telling me that you seriously believe that the US will commit to fighting a ground war with china on china’s doorstep?

even if the US thinks it can pull it off, the number of casaulties the US will take will be huge.

simply put, if china really wants to take taiwan by force, it has a very good chance of doing so even now. but china is not interested in such pyrik victories.

Further, China has no real threat. Its military expansion just fuels a arms race she can’t win……………..

you do realise that merely stating something does not make it true right?

as of now, china has no ability to challenge the US military for dominance of the world, the US military can probably get the better of the PLA even over the mainland. however, the PLA does possess the ability to achieve region supremicy over US forces in and around taiwan for a short period of time.

these few weeks or months would be enough time for the PLA to win the land war on the island of taiwan, and when the US are in a position to intervine without a huge risk of being defeated themselves, the very nature of the battle would habe fundermentally changed.

Sorry, if you do not grasp my simple examples. None can help you out.
At least the Chinese and their behavior is showing, that they understand the magnitude of such a task very well.

yawn. if you have nothing to say, try keep your mouth shut. :rolleyes:

Here you confirm my words, in a contradicting way.
“it can easily do that.”
“with all the research that china has put into carriers over the decades.”

have you even lost the ability to read, or are you trying to misquote me on purpose? :rolleyes:

my actual words were:

“if china wanted to build a carrier. it can easily do that.”

the part on research was in reference to the design and my sentence that:

“the most difficult part of design is to think of everything so that the ship is designed to deal with everything it might encounter.”

china can easily build a carrier. why? because it has three finished examples plus actual blue prints. its would just be a matter of following the instructions and the notes they have made themselves and building it like any other ship.

china is doing serious homework on carrier design. why? because they are trying to learn from the past experiences of others, so as to not make the same mistakes when they set off to designing their own carrier one day.

that is actually a charaterist of smart people – you learn from the experiences of others, and so avoid having to go through all the same steps and/or repeating any of their past mistakes. guess thats a totally alien concept to you. :rolleyes:

Building a carrier is a compromise of contradicting demands. When you find a sound one, you can start an evolution process. When something is wrong with your compromise, you will find out afterwards and that can be very costly, as the Russian example showed.

there you go again. pumping out primary school level basic knowledge to try and make it look like you actually have a clue. and even making mistakes there. :rolleyes:

building is just a matter of following instructions. its the design part that you were talking about. :rolleyes:

anyways, what 8 year old doesnt you that there is no ‘perfect’ design. its always a compramise between many needs and limitations. :rolleyes:

and making this most basic point is relevent how? are you suggestion that chinese engineers and designers are unable to appreciate this and need you to point it out for them? :rolleyes:

That Chinese compromise will operate what type of aircraft or technology?!

what are you blabering on about here? :rolleyes:

Well, from the political point of view. I’ve seen little gain for China over Taiwan? At least not from the American point of view. Unless China could somehow sway American public opinion. (i.e. not likely) She will not deter the US from intervening in any Chinese/Taiwan Conflict.

you give the americans too much credit. they are not saints you know.

go to america and ask american soilders and their families if they would be happy to send themselves and their loved ones to fight and DIE for the political gain of a very small number of polititions on the other side of the world and see what the reaction would be.

americans are not adverse to bombing someone else into the stone age over some flimsy excuse. but they would think much more carefully when getting involved would require a great many of their loved ones to give up their lives.

americans are not cowds and would fight and die in any number for something they truely beleived in, like their freedom and rights. taiwanese independence is not one of those causes that they beleive in so much.

Which, means China would have little success in the forseeable future of winning any such conflict.

the only reason the US would get involved in taiwan is if the american president and population still held delusions as to what that commitment would cost them (extremely unlikely, but not a possibility china can aford to rule out).

all those military preperations are not just for show you know. if the US does get involved, china would be forced to switch to plan B, which would be to kill as many US servicemen as possible in as short a time period as possible, and to bring america but down to earth with a bang.

as long as china makes it look like it was america that has started the fight (not very difficult); inflicted the looses on america in an ‘hounerable’ fashion (again, not hard to do as one only needs to avoid a sneak attack before hostlities have formally commenced); and made approprate moves to allow america to back down without loosing too much face (hard but not impossible), then it would be very likely that the US would back down.

they key to all this is time.

if the US was allowed to amass its entire might and get involve at its lesure, then there is very little chance of a chinese victory without the use of tactical nuclear weapons (a very bad idea for all concerned).

the idea is to force america to make a decision very quickly – either start shooting within the first few days or hours, or dont bother getting involved at all.

if america commits itself hastly, it can only get one or two carrier groups in range in time, and in such a scenario, the odds are stacked on the PLA’s side.

if america waits until they have most of their carriers in place before they intervine, then the fighting would need to be long over, and then the nature of the fight would have completely changed. it would not be a defensive operation, but an invasion.

an invasion of chinese held territory would be long, extremely bloody, and by no means likely to succeed.

So. really as long as Taiwan in more or less democratic and China is communist.

you have inadvertaintly demonstrated one of the biggest headaches for china over taiwan – the western media’s ability to twist and distort the truth.

china is no more communist then america is socialist. for most of the PRC’s history, the state has only been socialist, and today china is probably second only to the US in terms of rankings on the captitalist scale. most ‘capitalist’ EU countries has far better state welfare these days then china ever did. :rolleyes:

anyways, what does a country being communist have anything to do with democracy? :rolleyes:

you do realise that communist and capitalist are economic structures, while democracy and dictorship are political ones right? :rolleyes:

the situation between china and taiwan are remarkably similar to that between the two koreas. yet whenever there is a report on the two koreas, chances are there will be a line saying something along the lines of, ‘no peace accord has ever been signed between the two, so offically the korea war is not over…’, yet when western media reports on china and taiwan, its, ‘china considers taiwan part of its territory…’. :rolleyes:

the only difference between china/taiwan and ROK/DPRK is that for china and taiwan, there wasnt even an offical cease fire accord signed. :rolleyes:

Its pretty much statusquo…….China needs to look inward and focus on reforms. Then one day unification will happen peacefully.

and that is exactly what china IS doing. it is some polititions in taiwan that are pushing to change the status quo by making small, but significant steps towards formal independence.

the only thing they care about is to become the leaders of a real country before the people decides reuniting with china isnt such a bad idea.

Any Military Conflict would be a big mistake. 😮

that is why china is doing all it can to avoid having to fire a single shot.