FedaykinThese discussions about taking on the F-35B or essential defence procurement for Argentina can be fun but in the end they miss the central core issue. Argentina needs fundamental structural reform of its armed forces, associated bureaucracy and defence industry before any serious efforts can be made to recapitalise equipment.
Here is a stark example of the problem Argentina has, in 2015 their total defence budget was a not unhealthy by any measure $5.9b. Out of that budget only $138m went on capital investment! Most of that $138m went on trying to keep what they already have going and minor upgrades. Between 80 – 90% (depending on the calculation) of Argentine defence spending goes on personnel! In comparison the UK spends 35% of its defence spending on personnel whilst the US spends about 36%. Germany currently has a defence scandal due to it being realised that they spend too much on personnel with 49% of their budget going to that.
There is too much dead wood in the Argentine armed forces and associated civilian bureaucracy, the Argentine armed forces are being used as a glorified guaranteed work and Pensions scheme. People who should of been retired out long ago are still serving and when they do retire they collect a fat pension from all those years of service. That puts huge burden on Argentina’s defence budget!
They need to cut out the fat and re-balance defence spending then they need to make some cold hard choices some that will be very bitter pills to swallow. For example why send pilots to America for expensive carrier training and maintain aircraft in a state capable of carrier operations when they haven’t had an operational carrier since the early 80’s. There is no money to buy or operate a new one currently, it is an insane waste of money and resources just to maintain national pride and face within their Navy.
FedaykinSo is Ocean replacement really off the cards? Such a ship doesn’t cost much, less than a frigate, surely RN is not that cash-strapped after carriers are done? RAF gives up 4 Eurofighters and you’re pretty much set.
The reason why Ocean cost the same as a T23 are complex but the major point is they built her to a more relaxed set of build regulations accepting a shorter life span as a result.
British ship yards as it stands would struggle to build a vessel that size down to a cost now, there has been significant shrink in British ship building since the 90’s leaving us with the ability to build Submarines, Frigates/Destroyers and OPV.
Finally there is the crew to put on a replacement for Ocean, her current crew are earmarked for the QE class.
FedaykinWell so far Vietnam has expressed strong interest in the P-3 upgraded to a similar spec to those delivered to Taiwan and the C295 AEW&C. Both as potential purchases are highly logical as they would enhance their ability to patrol the area. There are P-3 sitting at AMARG available for upgrade and transfer, Vietnam already operates the C295 so getting the AEW&C variant makes sense.
The F-16 I find more puzzling, not impossible but puzzling. Considering the US is rapidly converting F-16 into target drones it would have to be a hot swap of active ANG or USAF airframes which are an increasingly scarce commodity.
FedaykinWow. You and Fedaykin really make this thread entertaining.
Kindly don’t lump me in with that loony! I am a long term and thoughtful member of this forum. I don’t particularly take kindly to your tone. I set out some reasoned thinking on this thread, by all means disagree but don’t associate me with JSR a known nationalist nonsense spewer.
FedaykinYes seriously, the effect of the one child policy on Chinese society is huge and far reaching.
Indeed nobody wants an arms race but that is exactly what we have in the region, proliferation of ships, anti ship missiles and Submarines is a notable development recently.
Vietnam is opening up to other regional nations and the US because they want allies in a geopolitical sense.
FedaykinI would post this in the Historic section, they will probably be able to tell you the day it was made and by whom :stupid:!
FedaykinVietnam is not a financial basket case it has enough funding to afford new ships, missiles and aircraft from Western and Russian sources. That means they can get credit terms from international suppliers.
As I have said above Vietnam and the US are most interested in the Geopolitical symbolism, after that Vietnam will want to tap areas that the US has experience in but there is a gap in Vietnamese capabilities like ISTAR.
If you want to talk militarily the other nations in the region through careful and thoughtful spending can put forward far more of an existential deterrent to Chinese ambitions then one would think. With all those years of one child families a force enhancer like Vietnams Kilo class submarines putting a single large Chinese combat vessel to the bottom has a serious social impact and China knows it hence their recent expenditure on improving their ASW capabilities.
Regionally I expect significant proliferation of Diesel submarines as they are a serious and credible threat to Chinese ambitions. Even the Philippines are seriously saving the pennies up to get Submarines.
Then again looking at Chinese regional ambitions their strategy even with the massive beefing up of their armed forces is imposing de-facto control of the South China sea by claiming Islands and Atols and then declaring the 12 mile limit off them. Hence the step of US freedom of passage exercises recently.
FedaykinThey will try to buy the cheapest Western fighter there is. Gripen or Viper, methinks..
But they will be astonished by the price tag, nevertheless..
I highly doubt Western fighter aircraft will be on the cards any time soon, most likely it will be ISTAR and ASW equipment that will top the list and be most useful to Vietnam from the US. For the US the geopolitical benefit of aligning with another regional power and gaining access to intelligence and facilities like Cam Ranh Bay with its dock and repair yard is more important than trying to sell F16 to a power that appears to be happy with its new Sukhoi 27 derivatives.
Vietnam has talked about P3 Orion which would be a logical addition to their armed forces giving them a long distance Maritime surveillance and ASW/ASuW capability.
FedaykinI suggest you chill out whilst waiting for new News Deino and relax with some Pop Corn watching Chinese Top Gun:
FedaykinI’m just going to keep on posting interesting stuff about Argentine defence procurement and restructuring:
http://www.janes.com/article/60519/argentina-may-reorganise-air-force-other-units
Just errrr making the suggestion for all our sanity!
FedaykinAnother interesting development, Argentina is enquiring about taking on surplus A69 Corvettes from France which the Drummond class is derived from:
http://www.janes.com/article/60334/argentina-in-negotiations-with-france-for-a-69-corvettes
I think Argentina needs to have a careful look at what excess defence articles they can get off the US as well. Interesting to see reports recently stating that the new government is looking to shake up the armed forces starting off by getting rid of the large number of elderly personnel drawing a wage.
FedaykinI suppose they want the USN models because they’re more up to date than the Saudi lot, so shouldn’t need any re-work to make them fit for short-term use.
The Saudi fleet, which AFAIK is still for sale, hasn’t had recent updates, but would provide enough aircraft to provide all the operable airframes Argentina might realistically want to operate in the short term, plus a hell of a lot of spares which could keep a squadron or two flying for as many years as desired, & I think the Saudis probably won’t ask very much. They must know it’s not a sellers market for old F-5Es.
Argentina has the technical skills to cannibalise spare aircraft to keep others flying. Whatever degree of upgrading it thinks worthwhile & affordable could be done, with Brazilian assistance if wished.
It’s not exactly a state of the art aircraft, but it’d do for air policing for the time being & it should be cheap both to buy & fly.
I must admit I am surprised that the Saudi’s have struggled to sell on any of their F-5Es. A fair few were delivered in the 80’s making them some of the freshest airframes available. I suppose the question mark is how well maintained are they, nevertheless with the number available they would make the good basis for an upgrade.
USN examples would in effect be a hot swap so I see why they would be keen on them along with refurbished AIM-9M to allow a respectable point defence and air policing capability.
FedaykinArgentina and US reestablish defense links after a nine-year freeze
FedaykinArgentina interested in F-5s as a stop-gap fighter
I don’t see how that’s supposed to work considering the USN just recently got those new old Swiss examples to replenish their aggressor fleet. Might have to look elsewhere (Singapore?).
Well speculation here but there are a fair few US FMS F-5 Tiger II beyond those sold to Switzerland. The Saudi’s have 79 available that were sold to them under FMS terms (Peace Hawk was the FMS deal name).
The US could well be an intermediary selling the jets to Argentina under an FMS deal with a transfer from another country looking to sell like Saudi.
The F-5 would be a good stop gap, it would be a type that the FAA could easily induct and Brazil would be a useful support partner.
Edit: OK read the article now, they want the USN examples…wishful thinking maybe?
FedaykinI agree it will be fascinating to see how close the Shortfin Barracuda can get to Nuclear without the nuclear! Personally I think that will be a struggle, there is a reason why countries that operate SSN stick to them!
Project management is a clear risk and I think the Australians have learnt a bit from the Collins fiasco when it comes to the consequences of poor project management and working with a foreign yard (Kockums) that didn’t have much experience integrating foreign kit or adapting to external requirements around detail specifications, the types of welds used being a case in point. The Swedish navy always requested partial penetration welds for their submarines, while the RAN wanted full penetration welding, but had not made this clear to Kockums. Wanting a revolutionary and conceptually new combat system rather than adopting a modern but mature one off the shelf was another sign of poor project management and specification setting.
I also did ponder about the whole 20 year life thing for Japanese submarines being arbitrary.
I found this very interesting talk about Taiwan’s future submarine program that really goes into the importance of project management for this kind of national endeavor:
Looking back at the Shortfin Barracuda lets say that it does go off with minimal problems (there are always problems with new submarine classes), potentially Australia/France has an exportable design here working with DCNS for countries that want a long range Diesel SSK with American combat systems.
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