AK,
Whilst they may have experience and expertise in their fields, it’s fair to say that countries leaving the EU is not a common occurrence (especially one such as the UK, with 45 years as a member), so therefore, I would say it’s impossible to come up with any certainty that such predictions as those that the Bank of England or other financial and economic experts have made or suggested would actually happen in a deal, or ‘no deal ‘scenario.
And the same goes for any software used for modelling the economic situation of such outcomes.
One only has to take a look at the types of models used for modelling the weather.
Any meteorologist will tell you that you can’t rely on just one of the available models, as they all have their weaknesses, and will predict the outcome of a weather pattern differently to each other.
They have to do a fair amount of interpretation of these models, and take certain things with ‘a pinch of salt, based on their own knowledge and expertise of their subject, and the limitations of these software models. And even with all this taken into account, they still get it wrong at times!
The point is, we really don’t know how things are going to pan out economically whether the PM’s exiting ‘deal’ is accepted or not, but I do feel that the Bank of England and the like are over egging the pudding somewhat with their continued pessimism of all things post Brexit.
And one could also argue that there is a bias by financial institutions and ‘experts’ to support our continued membership of the EU, and push a ‘worst case’ scenario to help their argument.
Cheers
Paul
Sign In
