Yes, I agree it comes down to “How much does Greece value Cyprus” and the EU/NATO would no doubt try their best to quell any trouble there but from a military perspective Turkey could launch 3-4times the amount of ground attack missions that Greece could due to its location and so Greek Cypriot determination to fight would be the key factor in its survival. By the time Greece has reacted, Turkey would have had the time to pound much of Cyprus’s assets into the ground.

Anyhow, back to the subject at hand. If Turkey were to launch an assault against Southern Cyprus, Greece would be hard pressed to get any aid through to the Greek Cypriot defenders. Only a small number of fighters would be within range to lend support and would not have much loiter time whereas Turkish fighters would be able to roam for hours with tanker support and therefore would be able to establish a formiddable defence.
The Hellenic Navy may make a gallant attempt to end any blockade, but I think without adequate fighter protection it would end in disaster.
It would then be a matter of whether Athens wanted to risk attacking Turkey to create a second front. If not, Cyprus is doomed. If Athens wanted a second front however then Turkey would have a fight on its hands.

Doubt they will supply that amount of F-16s, they might supply 30-40 but no more than that and even then they will be A/B models.