Er, no. I am capable of respecting people whose opinions are not congruent with mine. You might try it.
Moreover, do you think FRP F-35 contracts will include simulators and support equipment to set up pilot training centers?
Well, yes, unless the USAF means to buy enough of both in LRIP to support a 1763-jet fleet.
FBW – I don’t see any R&D in there. Logistics sustainment & support are in support of “government non-recurring engineering”, which sounds like “support for integrating the aircraft and ancillary equipment and getting it all working”. Operations costs can’t legally be charged to procurement accounts, and nor can R&D.
Again, some of these things might change in absolute terms as the program matures, and might change in relative terms as the rates increase, but so far they have not.
Do you think the purchase of simulators or upgrading the RCS testing at Hill reflect the price the USAF or others pay for the airframe?
We’re not talking about paying for the airframe. We’re talking about the cost of putting squadrons of aircraft into service. The number of simulators, for example, is directly related to the number of aircraft. The need for RCS test equipment is also proportional to the number of aircraft.
Are those costs going to be the same in future lots?
I’m glad you think not, but it doesn’t make any difference. Maybe some of these things are one-time buys, or minimum buys that won’t rise for larger lots. But that’s nibbling at the edges, and don’t support the assertion that the study is laughable.
MMRCA includes a shedload of tech transfer and the establishment of co-production. Far from comparable.
I don’t know what Rafale contract you’re talking about, so you’ll need to provide a few facts there also.
The contracts listed by Briganti are all formally attached to procurement of specific LRIP lots. There is no R&D or upgrade work involved (or anything else in the R-1 budget). If you can find similarly specific numbers for Rafale, go ahead.
FBW – Describing something as “even more of a laugh” is a little empty when you don’t advance any facts in support of that statement.
Sprey/Wheeler are not “all F-35 critics” – they just get quoted a lot because of the peculiar conventions of U.S. media.
Loo – I’m sure you would also condemn F-35 supporters who constantly cite a projected URFC for airplanes delivered in 2019 (a cost for which nobody can actually buy an airplane) as if it was some real and comprehensive figure.
How do we judge the decision of Gates to truncate the F-22 program?
Not too difficult. As we can easily see from his words at the time, he was systematically misinformed about the actual costs and schedule of the F-35 program, which made it look extremely attractive compared to the F-22. As for capabilities, it was claimed at the time (see the LMT press releases and briefings in response to the infamous Rand “baby seals” study) that the F-35 would overmatch air-to-air threats by 400 per cent and penetrate defenses and escape without being detected.
As Gates put it: The F-35 is 10 to 15 years newer than the F-22, carries a much larger suite of weapons, and is superior in a number of areas – most importantly, air-to-ground missions such as destroying sophisticated enemy air defenses. It is a versatile aircraft, less than half the total cost of the F-22, and can be produced in quantity with all the advantages produced by economies of scale. http://www.defense.gov/speeches/speech.aspx?speechid=1369
And as we all know, in mid-2009 the official position was still that a full-envelope Block 2 (much more capable than today’s 2B/3I) would be operational in 2013.
So if Gates believed what his advisers, subordinates and contractors were telling him, there was no justification for continuing F-22 production.
Ironically, considering the subject under discussion, Gates would have been less likely to terminate the F-22 if he’d been getting advice from the media…
Let’s correct a few misapprehensions around here.
First of all, Steinitz is Minister of Intelligence, so I think we can safely assume that his clearances are higher than those of Aviation Week’s journos. He is also no dummy and a combat-wounded veteran.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yuval_Steinitz
We don’t know what points he was using AvWeek to support, but it is a reasonable assumption that he was doing so to provide unclass corroboration.
Second, anyone who spouts guff about how armed forces are always right about their choices and then blabbers sentimental tosh about their being the people “who send men and women in harm’s way” needs to read history. It was the professionals who wanted XB-70, TSR2, P1154, Future Combat System and a fleet of DDG-1000s, to name but a few.
Steinitz’s belief appears to be that the F-35 is eating too much money for what it is worth, both with regard to developing direct countermeasures and Israel’s other needs (such as billions for a counter-tunnel system and the continuing demands of missile defense). Making such strategic choices is above the AF level.
Third, it matters not a flying fig how many gigs of F-35 data you have. If you have not sought and received access to high-level information on alternatives you are still incapable of making an informed choice. Canada did not do this at all before 2010.
The F-35 has gotten steadily cheaper to produce.
Well, duh. The first set of questions: where the trend line will flatten out, how much that depends on international customers taking early buys, and how that actually compares with other products.
The second question is CPFH, which is actually a bigger deal.
Bager – Do you have a source for that?
What has actually happened is that every LRIP batch so far has had multiple contracts attached to it for both P&W and LM. It’s extremely difficult to sort out how these relate to the announced contract price or to the numbers in the procurement budget.
Ridiculous! Next you’ll have a newspaper publisher in charge of wartime aircraft production, and that will be a disaster for sure.
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I thought that all the advanced simulation and modelling meant that real-world testing was now validation. Or maybe I was listening to some crazy drunk rambling.
The actual reasons include: TBTF programs with no competition can take as long as they like. Risk is studiously avoided in test programs (partly because there isn’t a Cold War on). The customer has gotten smarter about buying untested systems (think of how many -1 Navy airplanes or A-model AF aircraft had long careers. Not that many). In some cases, not-very-good designs.
The “keeping teams of .gov bean counters employed” canard is an excuse for poor industry performance. “Government bean counters” in the form of the FMV pretty well run things in Sweden, and do a good job.
That’s because the people who wrote the 2011 QLR weren’t sure either. The fix wasn’t as major as was feared (although we are early in testing) but took longer than the program predicted.
It has been a rough few weeks for our crowd of hyperventilating critics…
Seriously, who out there predicted that the jet would not make it on board? Nobody, of course, but the fans consider it victory when an utterly fundamental test point is completed a mere four years behind the 12/07 schedule, and a record-shattering period of time after program start and first flight.